The Note: Credit Where Credit Is Due

— -- WASHINGTON, Nov. 10

NEWS SUMMARY

A "Bush White House optimist" is someone who thinks they can make it through to the holidays without any more political damage, more indictments, or more mega-bad news out of Iraq.

Such a person thinks that the press might finally be bored reporting that the President's polling numbers are his "worst ever," and that it will be true for the foreseeable future that Democrats will, as John Harwood writes in the Wall Street Journal today, "lack either a singular national voice or a clearly defined agenda for voters to seize on." (Something up with which Rahm will not put. . .)

And, finally, the "Bush White House optimist" thinks the pony in the manure is the President's State of the Union, where good things -- and real page turning -- can happen. (If they can make it until January. . .)

And what is a "Bush White House pessmist"?

Someone who can't even utter the word "Snowe," someone who looks at the Presidents' numbers in the WSJ/NBC poll on "honest and straightforward" and gets physically sick, and someone who reads this blind kicker quote from a Republican strategist in Dan Balz's Washington Post story and realizes that it accurately sums up Republican angst (and reality?) heading into 2006:

"'We're tapped out on taxes,' he said, asking not to be identified to offer a more candid analysis. 'We failed on Social Security. We're nowhere on health care. Medicare didn't do it. The war's not going well. The economy's in fact going well, but we're not getting credit for it.'" LINK

With no curtain raising whatsoever, Karl Rove headlines the Federalist Society's convention with a 7:00 pm ET speech at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington, DC. It has been awhile since Mr. Rove has spoken in public in a Washington venue besides his driveway, so attention must be paid. The revovery begins here, some say.

(The Feds are hearing from a whole group of other luminaries, as well. For instance, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) delivers 11:30 am ET remarks at the Mayflower Hotel.)

For the other team (to use Grover's phrase): DNC Chairman Howard Dean, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, DGA Vice Chair and West Virginia Gov. Joe Machin III, and National Conference of Democratic Mayors Chairman and Trenton Mayor Doug Palmer kick off the Democrats' coordinated campaign for the 2006 mid-term elections at a 10:45 am ET press conference at DNC headquarters in Washington, DC.

Today's event is designed to "show the American people that while Republicans are so consumed with their own ethical problems, Democrats are working together to address the priorities of working families." The news conference takes place after Democratic congressional leaders meet to discuss their party's "strategy for success."

Members of the GOP's Main Street Partnership who helped broker the deal to eliminate ANWR from the budget reconciliation bill hold a 1:30 pm ET press conference at the Capitol Hill Club.

Judge Samuel Alito continues making the rounds on the Hill today. He meets with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) at 9:15 am ET, Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) at 11:00 am ET, Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI) at 1:15 pm ET, Sen. John Warner (R-VA) at 2:30 pm ET, Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL), and Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) at 5:00 pm ET.

President Bush meets with local officials from Louisiana at 3:25 pm ET and with the president of Yemen at 11:25 am ET. He signs the agriculture appropriations bill at 4:00 pm ET and honors the arts and humanities during a 10:05 am ET medal ceremony and during a 7:00 pm ET dinner. Earlier today, President Bush called King Abdullah to express his condolences.

Sen. John McCain delivers 12:30 pm ET remarks at the American Enterprise Institute on "Winning the War in Iraq."

Sen. Hillary Clinton takes part in a bipartisan effort to "salvage" $125 million for sick and injured 9/11 responders at 11:00 am ET in Dirksen 430. New York's Junior Senator delivers 12:15 pm ET remarks to the ABA's International Rule of Law Symposium at the Capital Hilton.

Leader Pelosi has her regular briefing scheduled for 2:00 pm ET in H-206.

The Senate reconvenes at 9:30 am ET and resumes consideration of the Defense Authorization bill.

The House meets at 10:00 am ET to consider the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005. There's lots hanging in the balance here still.

Karen Hughes appears before the House International Relations Committee for an around-the-world review of public diplomacy at 10:00 am ET.

A House Judiciary subcommittee holds a hearing on "How Illegal Immigration Impacts Constituencies."

Sen. Sam Brownback's (R-KS) Senate Judiciary subcommittee on the Constitution holds a hearing on "Why the Government Should Care About Pornography: The State Interest in Protecting Children and Families." Pamela Paul, author of "Pornified," testifies.

As promised on Tuesday night, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will meet privately with legislative leaders from both parties in Sacramento at 11:00 am ET.

Dow Jones/General Electric:
John Harwood's powerful lede in his WSJ/NBC poll write-up: "Republicans, wincing from losses in two governors' races this week and President Bush's current political weakness, face a broader problem as well: Some of the party's most potent traditional advantages appear to be eroding." LINK

More Harwood: "Among other findings, the poll indicates that voters no longer prefer Republicans to Democrats on handling taxes, cutting government spending, dealing with immigration and directing foreign policy."

And from the pollster: "'There's a kind of pall in terms of the American mood,' says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. 'It's a very unhappy electorate that's going to be very unstable....for a Republican majority.'"

2005: post-mortem analysis:
The Washington Post's wise Dan Balz writes, ". . .Tuesday's results confirmed that nothing happened to alter a political climate that now tilts against the GOP and that the President remains in the midst of a slump." LINK

Balz goes on to Note Kaine's success in Virginia in talking about his personal faith as appealing to swing voters and a lesson for the Democratic Party at large.

Ron Brownstein offers these somewhat soothing words to Republicans who are still stinging: "the best news in Tuesday's election may have been that more was not at stake." He zeroes in on the day's most telling loss: that of St. Paul, Minnesota's Democratic mayor Randy Kelly, whose trouncing was seen as punishment for his endorsement of Bush last year. LINK

The Wall Street Journal must-read editorial on Tuesday's results leads thusly: "About the best thing Republicans can say after Tuesday's election debacle is that at least it happened in an off-off year. This was a Democratic rout any way you look at it, from the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey to the ballot initiatives in California. If the GOP learns the wrong lessons, it'll happen again next year, when a lot more will be at stake."

Bob Novak says that, thanks to the loss following Bush's last minute campaigning in Virginia, the GOP should stay far away from him if they hope to win in '06. LINK

Novak argues that while the fault for GOP defeat in Virginia may not rest squarely on President Bush's shoulders, he will take the heat for it on Capitol Hill.

"Bush gets the blame. In the days immediately preceding Tuesday's elections, Republican committee chairmen in Congress grew increasingly contemptuous of their President. . . Thanks to Virginia, Bush can expect more of the same."

The Boston Globe's Rick Klein on Democratic excitement. LINK

The Washington Times' Donald Lambro throws some cold water on that excitement, reminding Democrats that they were in the same position in 2001 before being trounced in 2002. LINK

"Bloomberg drove a stake into the heart of the idea of the imperial mayoralty as practiced by Koch and, more importantly, by Giuliani. His win yesterday showed he could build a majority larger than Rudy's -- even as he proved that a mayor could be effective without indulging in crude racial appeals and with an unapologetic embrace of tax-hikes in exchange for better government. In a sense Bloomberg's win was a victory for smart-government liberalism," writes Greg Sargent in the online edition of the American Prospect. LINK

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post rounds up the results from the Detroit and San Diego mayoral contests as well as the Democratic and Republican post-election day spin. LINK

The Washington Post editorial board writes up the continued political woes for President Bush in light of Tuesday's results and bemoans so much personal spending by wealthy candidates. LINK

The Houston Chronicle reports that the polls showed on Election Day, "Blacks and Hispanics who traditionally vote Democratic strongly backed the state's gay marriage ban at the ballot box this week." LINK

The vote against intelligent design in Dover, Pa., on Tuesday was all about the town's image, reports the New York Times. LINK

Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) on Tuesday: "If I were a Democrat, I would make hay of this." LINK

2005: Virginia:
"Bush 'sank' GOP in Virginia," blares the front page of the Washington Times. LINK

Christina Bellantoni has Delegate David B. Albo, a Republican who narrowly defeated his Democatic challenger in Fairfax County, saying of Bush, "We know that George Bush is just killing us. His popularity just brought the ticket down. There's no other way to explain it."

Tim Kaine's "ability to incorporate religion" into his "public persona" was crucial to his victory in the red-leaning Virginia, a lesson that the New York Times says should be duly Noted by other Democrats around the country. LINK

Gov.-elect Kaine savored his victory for a brief time and then pledged to hit the road to build support for his transportation reform agenda, reports the Washington Post. LINK

The Washington Post's Barnes moves beyond George Bush and Mark Warner and looks at the candidates on the ballot in his post-election analysis of the Virginia gubernatorial contest. LINK

Abramoff:
The New York Times reports Jack Abramoff asked the President of Gabon for $9 million in 2003 in exchange for arranging a meeting with President Bush. But Administration officials say the eventual meeting between the two leaders, on May 26, 2004, was "routine" and unrelated to the fees paid to Abramoff's Maryland company GrassRoots Interactive. LINK

The Washington Post prints Abramoff's letter to Gabonese President Omar Bongo. LINK

Big Casino budget politics:
To save its package of $50 billion in spending cuts, House Republicans late last night had to drop a provision for drilling in ANWR, a move that will speed the bill's passage in the House but may meet objections in the Senate. LINK

Dropping ANWR drilling from the House budget bill is painted as a Bush Administration defeat in the Washington Post. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's Brody Mullins writes, "Businesses are lobbying to strip language from a Senate tax bill that would bar deductions for punitive damages and parts of government settlements."

"Corporations also have lined up against a provision that seeks to close $5.2 billion in tax shelters over five years."

"Congressional Republicans and President George W. Bush are divided over whether and how to make an overhaul of the tax code the centerpiece of their agenda in 2006," writes Bloomberg's Donmoyer. LINK