'Whuddya Think?'

ByABC News

October 6, 2004, 2:27 PM

WASHINGTON, Oct. 1, 2004  -- NOTED NOW

32 days until election day
4 days until the vice presidential debate
7 days until the second presidential debate
12 days until the third presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

What really matters is if the debate changes the outcome of the election — directly or indirectly.

Anyone who thinks we can answer that now is wrong.

Here's what we feel comfortable saying at this point:

1. Kerry aides to a person euphorically claim that their guy won. Many Bush aides last night weren't even claiming that the president won. (If they did this morning, we didnt' see it). All of the Bush post-debate talking points simply echo their pre-debate arguments — they did not attempt to build anything new off of this debate. And the "greatest hits" TV excerpts and commentary the Bush campaign sent reporters included some calling the debate a tie.

2. The instant polls done by ABC News, CBS News, and CNN/Gallup show more people thought Kerry won.

3. Check out the voter quotes in this Ron Fournier AP story. They all seem as if Stephanie Cutter wrote them herself, and this one is typical:

"' I'm disappointed in the president's performance, ' said Allan Ramsey, a 67-year-old retiree who told The Associated Press before the debate that he was leaning toward Bush. 'I didn't make much sense of the president's answers.'" LINK

4. Kerry's own advisers and supporters no longer have to be nervous that he isn't up to the challenge of a presidential debate. They were quite nervous going into this one.

5. The president seems angry at the prospect of John Kerry being president, and he did not hide that during the debate. How voters will feel about that show of anger will be interesting to see. The Kerry campaign will push this message, and it is likely something the president will have to keep in mind going into the second debate.

6. Based on our reporting with Democrats who have been unenthusiastic about Kerry to date and our intellectual sympathy with Kerry campaign arguments on this point, we think the challenger's performance will likely energize his base, who presumably were pleased to see someone stand toe-to-toe with the president they so dislike.

7. The warning lights might have actually helped Kerry by reminding him to keep his answers crisp.

8. HOWEVER, the president's new calling card — rattling off the names of foreign leaders and pointing out his experience dealing with them — stands in stark contrast to what happened in 2000 (when every time he talked about foreign policy his own supporters would hold their collective breath). In fact, for all of the possible ways decribed above in which the debate seemed positive for Kerry, the president's disciplined resitation of the "I will keep you safer" message might mean more to real voters than any of the semiotic ruminations of the media elite (and us!!) regarding Kerry.

9. In addition, President Bush had two moments in which many Americans may have been reminded why they like him so much. When the president expressed heartfelt sympathy to the families of the fallen soldiers, as well as when he announced his respect for Senator Kerry as a father, he played to his strength by reinforcing his compassionate side of his conservatism.

10. A review of the major and minor newspapers in battleground states suggests that both candidates got their message across. Kerry's "'colossal error of judgment' " line is oft-repeated. And nearly every article we read mentions somewhat prominently President Bush's apparent peevishness at times. Still, most of the coverage suggests this was a tie, which, in the battlegrounds, might go to the runner.

On to today:

President Bush makes remarks at Victory 2004 rally at the Lehigh Parkway in Allentown, PA (11:25 am ET) and at a second rally at the McIntyre Ski Area, Manchester, NH (3:55 pm ET).

First Lady Laura Bush visits the Indian River County Distribution Center in Vero Beach, FL (10:00 am ET).

Vice President Cheney is in Wyoming with no public schedule.

Senator Kerry attends a rally at the University of South Florida in Tampa, FL (12:30 pm ET), tapes the DNC radio address (2:00 pm ET), and attends a second rally at the Kissimmee Civic Center in Kissimmee, FL (6:15 pm ET). He overnights in Orlando, FLA.

Senator Edwards participates in a town hall at the Wayne Booster Community Center in Huber Heights, OH (1:45 pm ET) and attends a rally at Liberty Park in Erie, PA (5:40 pm ET). He overnights in Chautauqua, NY where he will prepare for the Vice Presidential debate next week.

Teresa Heinz Kerry holds a Conversation with Haitian-Americans at the Jean Jacques Dessalines Community Center in Miami, FL (1:30 pm ET).

The Senate convenes to resume consideration of S. 2845, the Intelligence Reform Bill at 9:30 am ET. There will be no Roll Call votes.

On Saturday, President Bush heads to Ohio and makes remarks to the Home Builders in Columbus, and campaigns in Mansfield and Cuyahoga Falls. Senator John Kerry campaigns in Orlando and raises money in Washington, DC. Vice President Cheney is down in Wyoming and Senator John Edwards is down in Chatauqua, NY for debate prep.

On Sunday, Senator John Kerry campaigns in Youngstown, OH and RONs in Portsmouth, NH.

The vice presidential candidates are down all weekend for debate prep. Vice President Cheney preps in Wyoming. Senator John Edwards prepares in Chatauqua, NY — a location that gives him easy access to two battleground states: Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The Clash in Coral Gables: morning show wrap:

Senator John Kerry emerged as the winner on the morning shows in terms of body language assessments, polls that all showed him ahead, pundits who thought he helped himself, and voter groups on ABC and NBC that both went heavily for Kerry.

The assessments cautioned however that the same polls that showed Kerry "winning" the debate did not immediately change the preference of voters.

White House communications director Dan Bartlett called "ridiculous" a Drudge Report item attributed to Bush's "inner circle" which suggested that Bush's visit earlier in the day with Hurricane victims was "emotionally draining" and that it contributed to Bush's "tired" appearance during debate.

The body language assessments:

Campbell Brown of NBC, for example, said "The president seemed frustrated as Kerry made his case." CNN's "American Morning" reported that "stylistically, Kerry seemed more at ease." CNN's Jeff Greenfield said Kerry was "the more composed figure."

The polls: ABC, CBS, CNN/Gallup all show more voters thought Kerry "won"

In reporting CBS' numbers which showed Kerry with a big 43 to 28 lead over Bush in terms of who won the debate, CBS' Bill Plante added: "Even better news for Kerry: his likeability score rose. It is now even with Bush and he is ahead among women."

The pundits:

ABC's George Stephanopoulos said Kerry was substantive, cooler and more in command. He noted that Bush scowled at various times and that he hunched over the podium, emphasizing the height difference between the two men.

NBC's Tim Russert said Bush probably solidified his base and that Kerry was "the John Kerry Democrats thought they were nominating back in Iowa." The pundits were more restrained than they otherwise would be in granting a Kerry "win" because of polls that suggest voter preferences were not immediately changed by the debate.

CBS' Bob Schieffer said he thought "Kerry made some gains last night" and that the president was "a little defensive at the beginning" though he "got better with time."

CNN's Jeff Greenfield said I think John Kerry did better in terms of debate terms. But that's a different question than saying that he helped himself in the debate. He said the undecided universe might be so small that it does not matter. He also asserted that Gore led in polls immediately after the first 2000 debate but when more attention was paid to his sighs and embellishments, the polls turned.

Senator John Edwards making the rounds:

In his various interviews, Edwards criticized Bush for continuing to refuse to face up to reality of what is going on in Iraq and refusing to do something new to make things better. Asked about what last night tells him about his debate with Vice President Cheney on "Today," Edwards said it tells him that the "facts are on our side."

Dan Bartlett making the rounds:

On "Fox and Friends," Bartlett said the Drudge Report item about Bush's closer circle of advisers blaming his poor debate performance on his being tired from visiting with hurricane victims was "ridiculous. "He wasn't tired," Bartlett said. "He was very much engaged in this debate."

On "Today," Bartlett criticized Kerry's $87 billion defense, saying: "He said that he mis-spoke. Well, in fact, he voted wrong."

The Voter Groups:

ABC's Kate Snow spoke to six voters in Columbus, Ohio. Five of six voters thought Kerry did better. One man said: "I saw a different John Kerry last night. He was composed. He was eloquent." That same man said Bush looked nervous and that he didn't address the issues. Another man said Kerry showed Bush had flip flopped on reason for Iraq War. Another man was taken by Kerry's Tora Bora argument. He was dismayed that Bush never dismissed that and he wants to know: did the US let Bin Laden to slip out?

NBC's Norah O'Donnell sat down with a small group of undecided voters — all of whom agreed Senator Kerry was better in the debate. It moved some people toward Kerry though some remained on the fence.

The Clash in Coral Gables: ledes: