The Note: Leader Hastert?

— -- WASHINGTON, July 24

While the important Middle East story is certain to dominate another week of news coverage, by next Monday, The Note estimates that Election Day will be one week closer.

That means that those who lose sight of what matters (Will George W. Bush be able to salvage the last two years of his presidency by helping to keep his party in control of Congress?) will have no one to blame but themselves.

The Democrats have plenty of their own problems, but here are the latest signs that "GOP" stands for "Got Oversized Problems" in 2006:

1. THE POLLS: As media polls start to come out over the next 90 days showing publicly what Republicans have known privately for months (that many of their candidates are currently in deep doo doo), bad things can happen. (See the Ohio data below.)

First, the Old Media will become even more excited about the "Republicans lose the House -- and maybe the Senate (!)" narrative than it/they already is/are. Second, donors, who are already giving in shocking numbers to the out-of-power party, will start to give even more to Democrats (and less to Republicans). Third, liberals will be energized and conservatives depressed. Fourth, real-life human beings (a/k/a "voters") will start to hear the "Democrats will win" storyline and that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

2. THE COATTAILS: In a lot of the states with key House battleground races, top-of-the-ticket statewide contests at this point appear to hold the possibility of major Democratic routs. We are talking Northeast and Midwest here: Pennsylvania, New York, New Hampshire, and maybe even (despite the hand wringing in the press) Connecticut. And maybe even Florida (Senate, not governor).

3. THE MONEY: Given Big Labor, Democratic Party fundraising, and those liberal millionaire/billionaire types, where/when/who are the conservative 527 white knights going to emerge? They ARE going to emerge, right?

4. THE BUSTED FOG MACHINE: Republican plans to shatter the glass jaws of Democratic non-incumbent candidates using the lower-taxes-keep-you-safer fog machine just might not work in this fall's environment.

5. THE CALENDAR: The October Surprise sweepstakes still holds a lot of peril for the President's party, including political scandal legal action in Ohio, more possible Abramoff-related indictments, Woodward's book, Iraq, gas prices, prescription drugs, and a few others we are not at liberty to reveal here.

6. MR. SCHUMER AND MR. EMANUEL: These cats are not fooling around.

7. IMMIGRATION: It is still hard to envision a plausible outcome that will help the Republicans in November. Do-no-harm seems their best bet, and even that looks tough.

8. NOT STEMMING THE TIDE: Josh Bolten's weak stem cell perf on "Meet" yesterday has convinced Democrats, now more than ever, that they can make the President's veto an issue in 2006, at least in the Northeast.

9. AFRICAN AMERICAN AND HISPANIC TURNOUT POSSIBILITIES: There are indications in some key races that Democrats might have figured out this puzzle enough to actually make a difference this fall.

10. THE POST PRISM: In a front-page introduction to the Washington Post's on-going look at eight factors on which the midterm elections will hinge, the Washington Post's Dan Balz writes: "No one can predict whether 2006 will be one of those seismic years in which control of Congress switches parties. But small shifts could have large consequences. If Democrats in the House gain 15 seats -- a number that analysts in both parties say is within reach -- Republicans will relinquish power there for the first time since 1994. In the Senate, Democrats need to gain six seats to take control -- a more remote prospect, but by most estimates a plausible one." LINK

The eight questions being followed by the Washington Post are: (1) how big a problem is President Bush for the GOP, (2) will pocketbook concerns move votes, (3) can Democrats compete in the South, (4) will the corruption issue go national, (5) will the immigration issue save Republicans, (6) will the Iraq war come home in November, (7) can Republicans win in the Northeast, and (8) will ballot issues drive voters to the polls?

As for today: Just as he did when he was a Yale law student, Bill Clinton delivers much-needed support to Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) this afternoon. The former President campaigns for the embattled Democratic hawk at 4:00 pm ET in Waterbury, CT. This morning, Sen. Lieberman will make campaign stops in Norwalk, CT and Stamford, CT with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA).

Sen. Lieberman's opponent, Ned Lamont, also looks to channel memories of the 1990s with an 11:30 am ET campaign stop in New Haven, CT, with Carl S. Feen, the Finance chair of Lieberman's first Senate campaign and a Clinton appointee. In the afternoon, Lamont visits a senior care center in Hartford, CT, and later, attends a fundraiser dinner in Waterbury, CT.

The Democratic Leadership Council prepares for a 2008 presidential blitz in Denver, CO today as Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA), and Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) address the centrist Democratic group. LINK

Look to see if Sen. Clinton's remarks contain at least the seeds of a 2008 agenda.

President Bush begins his day with a naturalization ceremony at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. At 2:25 pm ET, the President signs the Freedom to Display the American Flag Act, giving Americans the right to fly the flag outside their condos, co-op rules notwithstanding. At 5:35 pm ET, President Bush joins RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman for a closed-press fundraiser at Evermay in Washington, DC. Eighty attendees are expected to bring in $1 million for the RNC.

Vice President Dick Cheney heads to Arkansas and Alabama to speak at two gubernatorial fundraisers: contender Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas, and incumbent Gov. Bob Riley.

At 10:00 am ET, Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) holds a press conference in Milwaukee, WI to announce that he will introduce the State Based Health Care Reform Act later in the week. The State-Based Health Care Reform Act would authorize pilot projects to help two to three states achieve health care coverage for all their citizens.

Rather than dictating how states will achieve universal coverage, the bill provides them with the flexibility to choose their own way of covering all their citizens, provided they meet specified minimum requirements. Sen. Feingold's bill is aimed at breaking the political stalemate in Congress that is preventing meaningful health care coverage from being enacted. Over the next six months, Sen. Feingold plans to announce a series of proposals addressing some of the domestic issues that have been raised at Wisconsin Listening Sessions.

Back here in Washington, Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) joins education experts at the New America Foundation for a discussion on "Closing the Achievement Gap: Expanding Access to Quality Early Education in Grades PK-3."

ABCNews.com has the transcript of an interview that Jake Tapper conducted with liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas for Nightline. LINK

Sen. Lieberman's primary politics:
Former President Bill Clinton will exhort Connecticut voters to "redirect their anger over the war in Iraq away from Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman and toward Connecticut's three congressional Republicans" when he campaigns for DLC colleague Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) today. At a campaign event Saturday, Sen. Lieberman emphasized President Clinton's concern about the "implications of this campaign for the national Democratic Party, for our chance to take back control of Congress this fall, which we dearly want to do, and for our chance to begin a movement to take back the White House in 2008." Meanwhile, the Lamont campaign wondered aloud: given their famous clash over Monica Lewinsky, might not a Clinton-Lieberman appearance remind voters "how destructive Joe can be to other Democrats"? The Hartford Courant's Mark Pazniokas reports: LINK

Though he labeled Sen. Lieberman "idiotic" on the Iraq War, Don Imus reiterated his support for the embattled Senator on his morning show, calling Sen. Lieberman's primary opponent, Ned Lamont, an "Ichabod crane, pencil-necked phony" and Noting that Lamont quit his country club so that it would not be come a campaign issue.

Following church on Sunday, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CT) downplayed Lamont's recently cancelled membership at a "too white and too rich" Greenwich country club, the Hartford Courant reports. LINK

The Washington Times previews former President Clinton's campaigning in Connecticut today for his "politically centrist soul mate" Sen. Lieberman. LINK