The Note: Weakness Attracts Those Who Are Waiting

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 30

After a week of major and minor developments, and we are almost exactly where we were two-thirds of a fortnight ago: Democrats remain positioned to win control of the House of Representatives but fall just short of taking a majority in the Senate.

That continues to be the most conservative wager, but there are other options and many unknowns. Republicans could, perhaps, do better than the national polling currently indicates. (See, for instance, this must-read passage from this must-read Michael Barone story: "My hunch is that people who identify themselves as independents are substantially less likely to vote this year than people who identify as Republicans or Democrats -- which would be good news for Republicans, since independents give Bush low job ratings. Another hunch is that the Republican turnout apparatus, with which the Democrats haven't yet caught up, will boost Republican turnout as it did in 2004, and that the resulting electorate will be more evenly divided in party identification than the electorates shown in most of the public polls." ) LINK

The party of Bush-Cheney-Cheney-Rove has generated some controversies in the media that have served to rally the conservative base that largely carried them to victories in 2002 and 2004. (See, for instance, Lynne Cheney's virtuoso perf with Wolf Blitzer on the youtube thing all the kids are using. LINK)

Republicans have seen at least some of their endangered incumbents stabilize and even recover in the polls, while at the same time they have damaged a number of Democratic candidates with negative messages. (See Tom Reynolds, on the one hand, and Patricia Madrid, Harold Ford, and Jim Webb, on the other.)

And President Bush's chief political strategist Karl Rove still has such a psychic grip on many Democratic politicians and strategists that, until Election Day comes, they will be holding their collective breath and looking over their shoulders in anticipation of October (or November) Surprises. (Although what could actually help beyond the capture of bin Laden is not clear.)

Democrats, on the other hand, may end up riding a wave that would give them both a substantial majority in the House -- perhaps a win of more than thirty seats, far greater than the fifteen seats they need to net for majority control -- and a narrow control of the Senate, taking precisely the six seats they need for control, and perhaps even one more.

The Senate math remains pretty easy -- if there has been a change in the last few days, it is that the upper chamber landscape is tipping slightly towards the Republicans.

Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez is looking like a safer bet these days to hold his New Jersey seat for his party, giving them zero losses of slots they now hold. Democrats are counting on flips in Montana, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

To get the final three they need, Democrats have to win three of four of Rhode Island, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee. (Readers can switch Virginia and Tennessee if they are so inclined.) At this point, that is the likely order that the minority party could flip them, and/but don't count on any of them changing for sure. Rhode Island's Chafee might get blown out, but he can still win. Missouri is a toss-up and will be until the end, no matter what polling is out there.

Virginia and Tennessee aren't locked up by the incumbents, but Republicans were feeling better about them as the weekend ended, in large part because of the twin textbook media storms they generated via the New-Media-to-Old-Media conveyor belt last week. (To see how Matt Drudge did it, click here LINK )

The House is much more of a jumble. Some smart Democrats say they have 8 net seats in the bank, but might not win any more than 12 total. And there are smart Republicans saying they will lose at least 22 and as many as 42. There are still a lot of "entrenched" Republican incumbents who are not far ahead (or are even behind), and are thus not comfortable, including in some very Red places, and in some classic Purple Zones. (Yes, we mean you, Charlie Bass.)

(See Fred Barnes analysis of the "blowout belt. . . from Connecticut, through New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and ending with Indiana" to understand why even the Chief Reporter Who Does Not Rebel Against Rove is not so optimistic, but hasn't given up hope. LINK )

As in the Senate, Democrats are defending very few seats -- probably just two at this point, and might end up making history by losing zero incumbents.

The DCCC is spending real money in more than 45 races.

As we said, it is clear that some Democrats have made mistakes that are costing them leads and some incumbent Republicans have fought back. It is almost time for the parties, 527s, and candidates to stop polling (oh, my) and make final decisions about closing messages via ads and other delivery systems. Watch closely to see how many Democrats close with Iraq/Bush/change and how many Republicans close with the POTUS message of national security and taxes.

Why aren't more Republicans already squarely on the Bush mantra? According to one intellectually muscular Democratic strategist:

"1. Because, despite the hype, no one listens to Karl Rove anymore. 2. Because their district polls tell them that no one trusts Republicans on terror like they used to. 3. Because they need to put some backbone in the rhetoric of all politics being local. 4. Because Tom Reynolds has been too busy with his own race to enforce discipline on his conference. 5. Because they've had to spend too much time responding to charges that they've: voted for their own pay raise, against the minimum wage, against troop bonuses, and walked in lockstep with George Bush on Iraq and Social Security."

The Note believes that at least three of those five explanations are pretty solid.

On this final week of the 2006 campaign, President Bush -- who believes only one of those five explanations are solid -- has most likely completed his closed press appearances and heads out on the trail hoping to help save GOP majorities in the House and Senate. Mr. Bush attends a Georgia Victory 2006 Rally at Georgia Southern University in Statesboro, GA at 11:05 am ET. Statesboro is home to one of the handful of competitive House contests being fought on Democratic held turf. Former Rep. Max Burns (R-GA) is battling to get back to the US House in his effort to defeat incumbent Rep. John Barrow (D-GA).

Holli Deal Bragg of the Statesboro Herald Notes the traffic tie ups, ticket sales, and protester eagerness in Statesboro, GA as the city prepares for its first presidential visit. LINK

The President then travels to his home state of Texas where at 6:00 pm ET he is attends a Texas Victory 2006 Rally at the Sugar Land Regional Airport in Sugar Land, TX -- a/k/a Tom DeLay's world. The President plans to campaign for write-in candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R-TX) who is seeking to replace former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay who resigned from Congress in June. Democrat Nick Lampson (who has been running for the entire cycle) has spent $2,277,693 through October 18 compared to Sekula Gibbs' $677,454.

At some point, the President will be interviewed by Sean Hannity today.

President Bush heads back to the White House to sleep tonight before heading back down to Georgia tomorrow to rally the troops for the other vulnerable Peach State Democratic incumbent. At this writing, the President has no public events scheduled for Wednesday and heads out West on Thursday to Billings, MT and Elko, NV.

White House press secretary Tony Snow is not scheduled to hold a press briefing or gaggle today, but he is expected to headline a campaign event for Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) at the Frontenac Hilton in St. Louis, MO at 7:45 pm ET.

First Lady Laura Bush delivers remarks at a Pennsylvania Victory 2006 Rally at the Great Hall in Pittsburgh, PA. Mrs. Bush then travels to New Hampshire to deliver remarks at a New Hampshire Victory 2006 rally at the Executive Court Banquet Facility in Manchester, NH at 2:10 pm ET.

Vice President Dick Cheney tapes an interview today for Fox News Channel's "Your World with Neil Cavuto." The interview is scheduled to air at 4:00 pm ET.

Majority Leader John Boehner does three live interviews later today after appearing on Bill Bennett radio this morning. He was scheduled to appear at 9:00 am ET on MSNBC with Norah O'Donnell, 10:00 am ET on Fox News with E.D. Hill, and later tonight at 6:35 pm ET with Lars Larson. vSequoia Voting Systems Inc., a U.S. company that makes touch-screen voting machines, has confirmed that it has requested a federal investigation to dispel rumors of alleged ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. "Sequoia and Smartmatic are not connected, owned or controlled by the Venezuelan government whatsoever," Jeff Bialos, a Washington attorney representing the two companies, said in a telephone interview with the Associated Press. Sequoia has asked the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to investigate it and its parent company after questions about its ownership were raised last spring. The company plans to hold a news conference at 2:00 pm ET at a TBA location. LINK

Actor Michael J. Fox joins Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) for a stem cell research rally in Columbus, OH at 11:00 am ET. Fox then heads to Des Moines, IA to headline a rally for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver at 3:45 pm ET. If you missed George Stephanopoulos' interview with Michael J. Fox on "This Week" yesterday, be sure to check it out here: LINK

Nedra Pickler of the Associated Press reported yesterday that Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, plans to announce that he's considering a presidential run in 2008 later today. Hunter is scheduled to hold a 2:00 pm ET press conference on the waterfront in San Diego, CA to announce plans for an exploratory committee. LINK

(You can check out the front page of the San Diego Union Tribune here: LINK )

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) attends an event for GOP congressional candidate Peter Roskam (R-IL) at Medinah Banquets in Addison, IL at 10:30 am ET.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) receives the Kenneth W. Woodward award today at 11:45 am ET in Rochester, NY. She then attends two campaign rallies for a neighborhood revitalization program and a sculpture dedication (1:45 pm ET and 4:05 pm ET). Sen. Clinton concludes her day campaigning in Rochester, NY with congressional candidate Eric Massa at 6:00 pm ET at Max of Eastman Place.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) helps commemorate the 40th anniversary of Ronald Reagan's gubernatorial election and delivers the "Reagan Retrospective" at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, CA at 2:00 pm ET.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D-CA), join Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides (D-CA) in Pasadena, CA for an education event at 3:00 pm ET.

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and his wife, Susan Allen, were scheduled to campaign with NFL Hall of Famer and family friend Deacon Jones in Nassawaddox, VA at 8:00 am ET. Later today, the Allens join Sen. Warner (R-VA) for a "Veterans for Allen" event with the VFW in Virginia Beach at noon ET. Afterwards, the Allens campaign with Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) to tour local businesses in Virginia Beach, VA at 2:45 pm ET.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) signs books at Borders in Minneapolis, MN at 1:00 pm ET. Later today, Obama is the headliner at a rally for Amy Klobuchar's Senate campaign in Rochester, MN at 6:00 pm ET. (Democratic congressional candidate Tim Walz who is running to unseat Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-MN) is also expected to attend the Obama/Klobuchar rally.)

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) joins local Republicans for a "Leadership Rally" in Las Vegas, NV at 2:20 pm ET. The former mayor also attempts to help Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) when he attends an event with Arizona law enforcement, first responders, and sheriffs at the Arizona Bilmore at 7:30 pm ET.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) campaigns in two West Virginia House districts today. He was scheduled to appear with Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-MA) to discuss health care at 8:45 am ET in Charleston, WV. At 11:45 am ET in Morgantown, WV, Gov. Romney plans to hold a media availability with Republican congressional candidate Chris Wakim who is running to unseat Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV).

Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) holds a national conversation on the role of technology in shaping our political future for GenerationEngage's Technology and Social Change at the Boys Club of New York at the Jefferson Park Clubhouse in New York, NY at 5:45 pm ET.