The Note: Stay on the Offense

— -- WASHINGTON, Nov. 1

The back-of-the-envelope best case for Republicans is holding the House and Senate -- losing a net 12 seats in the House (and fortifying their majority with some party switchers) and a net 2 seats in the Senate.

The back-of-the-envelope best case for Democrats is winning control of both chambers -- taking between 30-43 Republican-held House seats and 6 Republican-held Senate seats, and not losing a single Democratic seat in either chamber.

The elements of Republicans achieving their best case:
Making the end-game wide message taxes, terror, and gay marriage.

Making the end-game targeted message taxes, terror, gay marriage, other social issues galore, liberal Democrats, Nancy Pelosi, and would-be Democratic committee chairs who happen to be liberal African-Americans. (Note the rising salience of "moral values" for voters in the GE/Dow Jones survey.)

The release of one terror tape.

As they did in 2004, per the Washington Post's saintly Dan Balz, finding "a way to excite and mobilize a fractured Republican base without triggering an even bigger turnout among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents that could cost his party the House or Senate."

(The Bush vs. Kerry redux rematch does that quite nicely, since the Right base loves it and most Democrats are not the biggest John Kerry fans -- and the psychology of it is huge, as Bill Clinton and Karl Rove can tell you. Bush -- and his rhetoric -- unite the Republican Party; Kerry -- and his rhetoric -- do not unite the Democrats.)

Final-days POTUS visits to Montana, Nevada, Missouri (two media markets), Colorado, Iowa, and Texas to remind Bush voters why they used to like him.

The classic "choice election" choice: the other guys would be worse.

The classic Bush-Cheney-Rove element: fear of the unknown -- you may not like us, but we've kept you safe.

Cut the distaff side of the gender gap, recover in the suburbs, and pick off seniors happy with the drug benefit.

Dow up; gas prices down.

Robo calls from 41 and 43 (and their First Ladies).

The 72-Hour turnout program and the potential myth that Democrats are fired up to actually vote.

Articles in the Old Media about how Democrats are promising to spend big money (Washington Post LINK) and about how powerful the Massachusetts delegation would be in Nancy Pelosi's House (Boston Globe LINK).

Trap/trick yet another Democrat or member of the media into a polarizing fight, to cement the base's rapture.

Drudge, Rush, Sean, Brit (and their ability to influence the Old Media storylines). LINK

Containing the wave so it turns out to be a series of individual political nightmares and not an unsurvivable tectonic confluence.

A political miracle. (Items not necessarily listed in the order required for success.)

The elements of Democrats achieving their best case:
Winning Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, Virginia, and either Missouri or Tennessee.

Winning a high percentage of the House seats in which the Republican candidate is currently at 45% or below.

Making the end-game wide and narrow messages Bush, Iraq, Bush, Iraq, change, Bush, Iraq.

Hope that Harold Meyerson is right: "But what next week's election seems likely to illustrate is that the laws of thermodynamics -- in particular, the one that states that for every reaction there is an equal and opposite reaction -- have not been repealed. Upstate New York, the Philadelphia suburbs, Connecticut's tweedy enclaves and the Microsoft precincts surrounding Seattle seem poised to show that they've had it with the party that restricts funding for stem cell research. In Arizona and Colorado, secular libertarians have grown estranged from the party that invested the power of the federal government in the cause of keeping Terri Schiavo in a vegetative state. In Ohio, voters look to be revolted not just by the corruption of their state and national Republican parties but also by the party's indifference to the collapse of the state's industrial economy." LINK

Michael Whouley.

Robo calls from Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Barack Obama, Jesse Jackson.

Getting Senator John "October Unsurprise" Kerry to apologize and then go to Sun Valley until Nov. 8, 20XX (Insert year of your choice here.)

Rahm switching from threats to tough love (and back again) -- for his own candidates.

Making the end-game wide and narrow messages Bush, Iraq, Bush, Iraq, change, Bush, Iraq. (repeat for emphasis)

At this point, you cannot name a single race that is clearly impacted by John Kerry's gaffe, but the national environment might be altered, and certainly the conservative base is one step closer to where it needs to be.

John Kerry has gotten off the stage - sorta. Kerry has cancelled planned campaign appearances for Democratic candidates in Minnesota and Pennsylvania today and in Iowa tomorrow. Kerry has returned to Washington, DC today. He had planned to spend the later part of the week at home in Massachusetts.

Kerry called into Imus this morning and said he was "sorry" for the "botched joke" and said his friend John McCain is on the wrong side of this controversy. LINK

Kerry's spokesman David Wade explains to The Note Kerry's decision to cancel campaign appearances. "We made a decision not to allow the Republican hate machine to use Democratic House candidates as proxies in their distorted spin war in which once again they're willing to exploit brave American troops -- so yes we've canceled campaign events -- but we're staying at the fight to hold Bush accountable on Iraq -- any day this president has to debate his failed policy in Iraq is another day Republican candidates dread," said Wade.

President Bush has no public events scheduled for today. He does plan to tape a radio interview with Rush Limbaugh at 10:45 am ET where the Kerry fires will likely continue to be stoked. Be on the lookout for possibly another presidential interview during the course of the day. Mr. Bush also plans to meet with Secretaries Rumsfeld and Rice as part of his regular weekly meetings.

White House spokesman Tony Snow holds a briefing today at noon ET.

First Lady Laura Bush campaigns for Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY) at a Kentucky Victory 2006 Rally in Radcliff, KY at 11:30 am ET. The First Lady then travels to Hilliard, OH to attend an Ohio Victory 2006 Rally at 3:00 pm ET.

Vice President Dick Cheney attends a 2006 Victory Rally at 7:00 pm ET in Kalispell, MT. ABC News' Karen Travers reports Cheney is likely to mention John Kerry, which will keep the fires stoked, along with dueling video press releases (a/k/a web videos from the RNC -- on Kerry -- and the DCCC -- on Iraq.)

Also to watch: how many more Democrats throw Kerry under the bus.

Former President Bill Clinton campaigns for Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) at the Temple of Deliverance Church of God in Christ for a "Celebration for a New Generation" get-out-the-vote effort in Memphis TN at 10:30 am ET. Clinton then heads West to headline a fundraiser for Democratic congressional candidate Ed Perlmutter in Denver, CO and then on to join Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in San Francisco for a fundraiser this evening.

President Bush isn't the only one doing radio today. Democratic leaders (including Rep. Pelosi) and MOC's plan to do GOTV radio on more than 55 shows in key media markets across the country.

House Democrats plan to be on national news, national progressive, national/regional African American, national/regional Hispanic, and national conservative shows. As well as on regional shows in Portland, Denver, Miami/West Palm Beach, and Buffalo/Albany to name a few of the key markets.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman attends 6 events billed as efforts to rally grassroots volunteers. Mehlman visits the Clay County GOP headquarters in Kansas City, MO at 10:00 am ET, Jackson County GOP Headquarters in Independence, MO at 11:30 am ET, Cass County GOP Headquarters in Raymore, MO at 12:45 am ET, Pettis County GOP Headquarters at 3:00 pm ET, at Health Partners Management Services in Poplar Bluff, MO at 7:30 pm ET and the Cape Girardeau County GOP Headquarters in Cape Girardeau, MO at 9:00 pm ET in Cape.