The Only Poll That Matters

— -- WASHINGTON, Jan. 12

The safest bet you can make over a little mooshu at the Peking Gourmet in Falls Church tonight is that Sunday show anchors galore will be, uhm, skeptical about the efficacy of the Bush Iraq plan -- a posture that will be shared by many of their guests.

And/but, as we do every Friday, here's your clip-and-use for Saturday's Georgetown cocktail parties about the week-that-was-and-the-week-that-will-be in the Three Rings that will continue to run our lives for quite awhile:

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Ring 1, Iraq: The President, without majority public, commentator, or congressional support, plans to put more troops into Iraq. Democrats are moving inexorably towards precipitating a constitutional clash by trying to stop him. The ball is moving inexorably back to the President's court, at which point those betting on Mr. Bush to back down should check the clip file.

Ring 2, other legislative business: : Democrats in the House have started to move legislation that will, if successfully conferenced with the Senate, produce substantive AND political victories (if the President signs them into law); political victories (if the President successfully vetoes them); or mega substantive AND political victories (if presidential vetoes are overridden). On three of the biggest questions about the new majority, we have partial answers: a new reality of bipartisan comity with the White House? (nah); surprising PR, tactical, and strategic competance by the Democrats? (so far); plans to channel Dave Bossie and investigate the bejesus out of the Bush Administration? (tbd).

Ring 3, 2008: : McCain -- your surge and welcome to it; Romney -- you'll impress us with the next 6 million, but you already impressed us with the timely delivery of the best-available-answer on your past liberal views; Obama -- please don't ruin our Martin Luther King holiday (week) by making us rush into the office.

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At this morning's Senate Armed Services Committee hearing with Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Peter Pace, Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) announced that Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) would not be attending, because they are headed to Iraq and Afghanistan this weekend.

President Bush spends his morning in Washington and then departs via Marine One to Camp David with the First Lady at 2:00 pm ET. He is taping the third and final part of his "60 Minutes" interview that airs this Sunday, in which POTUS and Texan interview Pelley will do everything but snap the towels.

One day after meeting intense skepticism on Capitol Hill, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice departs Andrews Air Force Base for the Middle East and Europe at 7:00 pm ET.

As part of the new majority's 100 Hours Agenda, the House meets to consider legislation which would amend the Medicare drug benefit to allow the government to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices. Meanwhile, the Senate reconvenes at 9:30 am ET and resumes consideration of an ethics and lobbying overhaul bill. The chamber will proceed to a vote on an amendment offered by Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass, at 9:50 a.m.

Former Sen. George McGovern (D-SD) discusses his plan for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq at a National Press Club luncheon at 1:00 pm ET. Earlier in the day, he meets with the Progressive Caucus.

Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) will visit IA this weekend to announce a WH '08 bid.LINK

(Look for Tancredo to blast away at Sen. McCain's immigration stance but to refrain from criticizing Romney for hiring a firm to do yard work for him that allegedly employed illegal immigrants).

Mayor Giuliani receives the "Pete DuPont Individual Freedom Award" at 8:00 pm ET from the Delaware Republican Party. According to an aide familiar with Giuliani's planned remarks, the former mayor is expected to talk about the Republican Party's commitment to "expanding individual freedom and giving people more control over their lives." Cutting taxes, finding market solutions, and education reforms like school vouchers will all be highlighted as examples.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is in Florida today at the Shooting, Hunting, Outdoor Trade Show and Conference. The presidential hopeful will stay in Florida on Saturday. On Monday, he plans to attend an MLK service in Boston and will hold a short media availability.

Former Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) was scheduled to attend the Inauguration of Governor Chester Culver (D-IA) and Lt. Gov. Patty Judge (D-IA) in Wells Fargo Arena at 9:00 am in Des Moines, IA. Vilsack later attends the Taste of Iowa at Hy-Vee Hall at 11:00 am ET in Des Moines, IA.

Be sure to tune into "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday. George's guests include National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and war critic Rep. Jack Murth (D-PA) on the President's plan to add more American troops into and around Baghdad. Also, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's (R-CA) plan to provide universal health care coverage in California has caused quite a stir and he's sitting down with George for a Sunday exclusive on that and much more. You won't want to miss it. LINK

The full holiday weekend schedule can be found at the stirring conclusion of today's Note.

Speaking of which: in conjunction with the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, The Note will not publish this Monday. We'll be back next Tuesday.

Politics of Iraq: skepticism on the Hill:
In a sea of public/media polling data suggesting that the President's speech was not an instant game changer, the New York Times' Shanker and Cloud write the lede story on Secretary Rice's testimony. "The reception she received suggested that Mr. Bush's prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday had done little to build political support for sending additional troops to Baghdad," they write. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Richter and Barnes write of the "crumbling support" in Congress for the President's war effort. LINK

But it is the "other" Times lede that will/should more concern Casa Blanca:

Charles Hunt and Jon Ward of the Washington Times have their own look at the "crumbling" GOP support for President Bush's Iraq strategy. LINK

"An informal survey by The Washington Times yesterday, for instance, found nine Senate Republicans who have 'doubts' about Mr. Bush's proposal, and seven who reject it. Eleven other senators expressed conditional support."

"Twenty-one Republican senators offered unqualified support. Only Sen. Wayne Allard, Colorado Republican, did not respond to requests for comment."

"On a committee renowned for its bipartisanship and restraint, the questioning on Thursday, the day after a major presidential address on Iraq, amounted to a powerful blast. Though the mood was somber and the tone remained polite, members of the committee pressed Ms. Rice with extraordinary sharpness," writes Anne Kornblut of the New York Times, who also takes a look at how the five '08ers on the committee conducted themselves yesterday. LINK

Democrats and Republicans greeted the Bush Administration's Iraq plan "with a skepticism not seen from Congress over the past six years, write Michael Abramowitz and Jonathan Weisman of the Washington Post. LINK

The Washington Post story has an insert with reaction from the six leading '08ers.

Noting the obvious, the Washington Post's Dana Milbank writes that Secretary Rice's appearance on Capitol Hill showed that "the Bush administration had, after four divisive years, finally succeeded in uniting Congress on the war in Iraq,"LINK

Note the A1 placement (and healthy television coverage) of Sen. Hagel telling Secretary Rice: "I have to say, Madam Secretary, that I think this speech given last night by this president represents the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in the country since Vietnam."

On his "Political Punch" blog, ABC News' Jake Tapper writes Republicans had the most forceful and potent questions for Secretary Rice. LINK

Jane Norman of the Des Moines Register reports that Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) has placed himself alongside Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) trying to block President Bush's request for more troops. Meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) supports the surge. LINK

Every single "Democratic Congressional insider" from this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders polls said they though a troop surge would not significantly improve the chance for long-term stability in Iraq. Seventy-four percent of Democratic Insiders think that Congress should use its "power of the purse" to challenge President Bush .

The Washington Post's David Ignatius looks at Rep. Rahm Emanuel's' (D-IL) ambitions for a long-term realignment of the country toward Democrats. LINK

"The secret for the Democrats, says Emanuel, is to remain the party of reform and change. The country is angry, and it will only get more so as the problems in Iraq deepen. Don't look to Emanuel's Democrats for solutions on Iraq. It's Bush's war, and as it splinters the structure of GOP power, the Democrats are waiting to pick up the pieces."

Politics of Iraq: Bush:
The New York Times' Rutenberg, Sanger, and Cloud tick tock how the President's decision to send more troops to Iraq came to be. LINK