The Note: The Tips of Icebergs

— -- WASHINGTON, Jan. 18

Key political stuff even David Sanger, Dee Dee Myers, Charlie Rose, and Steve Schmidt aren't seeing (and hearing) right now:

-- The disagreements between Josh Bolten (remember him?) and Karl Rove (remember him?) about what should be in the State of the Union.

-- The Clinton, Obama, and Edwards staff conference calls that precede their act-react-respond chess moves on Iraq.

-- The Boehner-Blunt discussions reviewing what Rahm did to them (and about how to keep it from happening again).

-- Howard Dean's efforts to influence Pelosi-Reid legislative strategy.

-- Carl Cameron explaining his expense reports to his bosses.

-- Kevin Madden explaining to a bunch of business people who have never set foot in Iowa during the caucuses – or in a debate spin room – how all this actually works.

-- The private dinners that labor and other liberal interests are hosting with the men (and woman) who want to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2008.

-- Jeff Zeleny reminding his bosses that not only is he an expert on Barack Obama (from his Chicago Tribune days), but he used to work for the gosh darn Des Moines Register (and that he is solidly sourced there too).

-- Senate Democratic communications staffers strategizing about how to wring the maximum benefit out of Chuck Hagel's apostasy.

-- The BOARD meetings in Hillaryland on the coming announcement (in days or weeks, not months).

-- The meetings Al Gore and his people (Hollywood-style, with a little Nashville panache thrown in) are having over positioning "An Inconvenient Truth" for an Oscar nod.

-- Laura Bush's pouring over polling data, and asking Rove for clarification.

-- John Kerry's pouring over polling data, and asking Ed Reilly for clarification.

-- Joe Biden's prep conference calls with his staff to get ready for each key hearing.

-- John Weaver's internal ruminations about at what pace to unfurl the (endless) additional pre-canned endorsements -- in key states and nationally -- that he has ready to go.

Things that are more out in the open for your consideration:

-- How Leader Reid will finesse ethics legislation today.

-- If Tom Edsall's HEARTING of the Pelosi Machine is reasonable and reasoned. LINK

-- If Mel Martinez and other leading Republicans find the worldview of Bob Novak or Jacob Weisberg more dire: LINK

-- Or, perhaps, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll numbers. LINK

Every last one of those items were grist for the Republican National Committee's mill as they began its Winter Meeting under the theme "Recommitting to Reform" at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Washington, DC at 9:00 am ET. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) will speak at 11:30 am ET, and outgoing RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman will speak at 12:30 pm ET. Ralph Z. Hallow of the Washington Times is still making it tough on the incoming face of the RNC, Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Rove). LINK

Friends of AR GOP & Gov. Huckabee's Hope for America PAC will be hosting an informal breakfast reception on Thursday AM at the Grand Hyatt to welcome RNC Members and provide copies of the Governor's new book. "From Hope to Higher Ground: 12 Stops to Restoring America's Greatness."

President Bush has no public schedule today.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Majority Whip James E. Clyburn (D-SC) and Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) hold a news conference to discuss the 100 legislative hours of the 110th Congress at roughly 3:30 pm ET.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) joined Majority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) at a constituent coffee this morning at 8:30 am ET in the Hart Senate Office Building. Later this morning at 10:45 ET, Obama presides over the Senate.

The Senate Foreign Relations committee meets today for a hearing on Iraq military strategy. The meeting was scheduled to begin at 9:30 am ET.

The Senate Judiciary Committee, in their hearing on "Oversight of the U.S. Department of Justice" heard from Attorney General Alberto Gonzales at 9:30 am ET.

When Attorney General Alberto Gonzales testifies before the Judiciary Committee at 9:30 am ET, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) plans to ask him: "Does Congress have the authority to prohibit the President from sending forces into Iran and Syria without specific congressional authority?" Sen. Kennedy also plans to ask the Attorney General whether Congress has the authority to prevent the "escalation" of the Iraq war.

Sen. Kennedy will tout a letter signed by 23 leading constitutional scholars who contend that Congress does, indeed, have the authority to do so.

"Congress clearly may cut off funds entirely and bring an armed conflict to an end," the scholars write in their letter. "It may also take the intermediate step of providing that the President from using appropriated funds to increase troop levels or to broaden a conflict into additional nations or territories."

The House of Representatives meets to consider legislation to reduce oil company subsidies and increase investments in renewable energy sources at 10 am ET.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff addresses the American Society of Newspaper Editors at 1:15 pm ET at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. Afterward, Secretary Chertoff addresses the American Bar Association's 2nd Annual Homeland Security Institute meeting at 4:45 pm ET at the L'Enfant Plaza Hotel.

Leader Boehner also holds an on-camera press briefing at 11:05 am ET in the House Radio-Television Correspondents' Gallery of the Capitol.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) delivers a speech to the Jordan Company at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel at 12:00 pm ET in New York, NY.

Politics of Iraq:
In his must-read column, Robert Novak pens on "the sense of impending political doom that clutches Republican hearts" because of Iraq and says all the GOP can hope for is a Democratic blunder to take the focus off Republicans. LINK

On the other hand, Novak acknowledges writing his column before Prime Minister al-Maliki's upbeat chat with the media yesterday.

USA Today has the details on the Biden/Levin/Hagel/Snowe non-binding bipartisan resolution aimed at sending a message to the White House that the Congress does not support the President's plan in Iraq. LINK

"For all the bills introduced yesterday," writes the Washington Post's Dana Milbank, "none is likely to force President Bush to change course in Iraq. Proposals such as Biden's are 'nonbinding' and others don't have enough votes to pass. 'There is very little chance in the short run that we are going to pass any legislation,' Clinton confided during her news conference. Asked to elaborate, she explained: 'I can count.'" LINK

Carl Hulse of the New York Times on the symbolic Iraq war measure and the looming clash between Congress and the White House. LINK

The AP's Anne Flaherty reports on the Hagel/Cornyn to and fro over the resolution. Sen. Cornyn (R-TX) called the resolution a political ploy to embarrass the President. Sen. Hagel -- who is a co-sponsor of the non-binding resolution -- shot back: "To somehow come up with a conclusion that it shows a lack of seriousness, I am a bit befuddled by what the Texas senator is trying to describe." LINK

John Stanton and Susan Davis of Roll Call also take a look at the accusations of politicking and difficulty Senate Republicans face in presenting a unified front on the Senate's non-binding resolution opposing President Bush's call for more troops.

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll:
A majority of Americans oppose more troops in Iraq and nearly half the country wants Congress to block President Bush's deployment of more U.S. troops, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll number as reported by Ron Brownstein.