The Note: New Verse, Same As the First

— -- WASHINGTON, Jan. 19

Friday is, for all Note readers, time to review our three rings -- week past and week future (and beyond):

Ring 1, Iraq: All the momentum in both parties continues to push towards opposition to the Bush plan, but there is only one commander-in-chief (not 536), and he is still in charge. Where this is headed, no one knows, but for clues for how far (and fast) Congress will go, watch closely the four Johns: Warner, Boehner, Edwards, and Murtha.

Ring 2, other legislative matters: Bush up (going for health, immigration, and environmentally "compromise" -- which will buy him a few moments of good press); Bush down (the Gang of 500 has never cared less about a SOTU, and Tony Snow claims it isn't even written yet!); Pelosi-Reid up (Six in '06 rocks in '07, and the Gang of 500 has never cared more about a SOTU pre-buttal); Reid-Pelosi down (Washington hath no fury like the Dingells scorned, the LAT/Bloomberg poll also says "only 25% of those surveyed believed Democrats have formulated a clear direction for the country; 58% said they had failed to.")

Ring 3, 2008: McCain up (keeps banking key endorsements); McCain down (no longer looks invincible for the general election); Clinton up (gets in the Iraq game); Clinton down (no one cheers for the frontrunner, and every loss stings); Romney up (Olive's party shows he remains the not-McCain leader); Romney down (Scot Lehigh's seminal, must-read, devastating Boston Globe column is like a bad penny LINK); Edwards up (jobless, anti-war candidate can continue to make Iowa inroads and drive Senate-bound rivals batty, while getting EJ Dionne wet kiss LINK and Los Angeles Times love on African-American Palmetto State support LINK); Edwards down (carelessness on the home buying front -- again!!! LINK); Giuliani up (more staff and money on board); Giuliani down (still too many non-believers); all other 2008 hopefuls down (the Big Six CW begins to occify); all other 2008 hopefuls up (hope springs eternal -- if you have $18 million by September).

While President Bush continues to practice his SOTU speech out of public view and heads to Camp David for the weekend, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) helpfully provide some sound on tape for those weekend curtain-raising stories as they offer that pre-buttal to the State of the Union at the National Press Club at 10:30 am ET in Washington, DC.

According to excerpts of his prepared remarks, Sen. Reid plans to address the President's decision to send additional troops to Iraq by saying, "The President's plan will receive an up-or-down vote in both chambers of Congress. It is the only way the American people can have their voice heard. Our hope. . . is that the President will hear the bipartisan chorus opposing escalation, and work with Democrats to find a new course."

"For over a year, Democrats have been proposing a better plan for Iraq - a plan based on what is in the best interest of our country both now and the future. A plan largely endorsed by the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group. The Democratic plan can be boiled down to three parts: change the military mission, redeploy the troops, and make Iraq's neighbors part of the solution.

And be sure you don't miss Sen. Reid's warning on Iran. "This morning, I'd like to be clear: The President does not have the authority to launch military action in Iran without first seeking Congressional authorization," Reid plans to say. You can read more on ABC News' Political Radar. LINK

The Republican National Committee continues its annual winter meeting today and tomorrow, with outgoing RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman presiding over the election of new RNC officers at 10:15 am ET, followed by a 12:30 pm ET media availability with those newly elected officers (likely to be Mike Duncan and Sen. Martinez), before Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) delivers luncheon remarks at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Washington, DC. The meeting concludes with White House Press Secretary Tony Snow's breakfast remarks on Saturday, January 20 at 8:30 am ET. (Don't miss Ralph Z. Hallow's Washington Times story about a push for a secret ballot. LINK

)Sen. McConnell is expected to say that the Senate "got off on the right foot with the lobby reform bill. . . The bill isn't perfect, but it goes a long way toward showing that the Republican Party will hold itself to the highest standards."

"Immigration, Social Security, healthcare, education, energy independence -- we can pass meaningful reforms in all these areas, and we can do it with divided government. Cooperation, as I've said, does not mean capitulation. But failing to find solutions on pressing issues like these does contradict the spirit of our party, and it further jeopardizes our being the party of reform," McConnell is expected to add, according to his prepared remarks.

As Republicans continue to recommit themselves to reform, former Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) is scheduled to be sentenced at 9:30 am ET in Washington, DC for his role in the Jack Abramoff scandal. Last October, Ney pleaded guilty to conspiracy and making false statements for trading official actions for trips, sports tickets, meals and campaign donations from Abramoff.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is expected to preside over the Senate at 9:15 am ET and then attend a joint HELP/Appropriations Committee hearing on stem cell research at 11:10 am ET.

The House meets to consider legislation to deny pensions for former members of Congress convicted of felonies, as well as legislation to overhaul the Congressional Page Board, at 10:00 am ET.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee hears from former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN), co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group, and former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger on recommendations for Iraq policy at 10:00 am ET.

Members of the Democratic Party's conservative Blue Dog Coalition hold a press conference on the Iraq war at 11:30 am ET at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, featuring Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA), Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), Rep. Mike Thompson (D-CA), Rep. Jim Marshall (D-GA), Rep. Mike Ross (D-AR), Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL), Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS), and Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D-SD).

The Blue Dogs plan to unveil a resolution tomorrow to deal with "fiscal responsibility and accountability" for the Iraq war.

Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) delivers the first ever Spanish language Democratic preview address on the "State of Our Union" at 1:00 pm ET in the Capitol. The Senator will be available for questions after the speech.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) holds a rally with Connecticut supporters before his weekend visit to New Hampshire starting at 5:30 pm ET at the Old State House in Hartford, CT.

Following his swing through Washington, DC on the outskirts of the RNC winter meeting, Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) meets with New Jersey supporters in East Brunswick, NJ.

Tomorrow, Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) officially announces his presidential candidacy in Topeka, KS and then makes that first crucial campaign stop on Sunday by sitting down with ABC News' George Stephanopoulos on "This Week." LINK

Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI) spends the day in Omaha, NE where he gives remarks on a healthcare cost estimation tool, conducts private meetings, and attends fundraising dinners and receptions.

Tomorrow, Gov. Thompson is back in Iowa here he delivers a speech to Republican women in Des Moines and keynotes a fundraiser in Cedar Rapids.

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) holds a town hall meeting to discuss the "troop escalation" in Iraq at 2:00 pm ET at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, IA.

On Saturday, Sen. Chris Dodd has a very busy day campaigning in New Hampshire. He has breakfast at 9:00 am ET with Democratic Activists at Crowne Plaza Hotel in Nashua. Then, he hosts a "Coffee with Chris" at the home of Skip and Susan Hebert in Hooksett, NH. Later, he attends a town hall meeting at the Bell Center for Music and the Arts in Dover, NH. Then, he attends a meet and greet at Lazy Lion Café in Deerfield, NH. Finally, he attends the Senate District 7 celebration at Daniel's Restaurant & Pub in Henniker, NH.