The Note: The Way to Win, Chappaqua Style

— -- WASHINGTON, Jan. 22

NEWS SUMMARY

Before Hillary Clinton's bold stroke Saturday morning, the first State of the Union speech of the rest of George W. Bush's presidency was already in danger -- along with Mr. Bush's entire agenda -- of being drowned out by the drawn-out political death of the war in Iraq.

ABC News' Gary Langer reports: "President Bush faces the nation this week more unpopular than any president on the eve of a State of the Union address since Richard Nixon in 1974."LINK

"Nixon was beleaguered by the Watergate scandal; for Bush, three decades later, it's the war in Iraq. With his unpopular troop surge on the table, his job rating matches the worst of his presidency: Thirty-three percent of Americans approve of his work in office while 65 percent disapprove, 2-1 negative, matching his career low last May."

"Only three postwar presidents have gone lower -- Jimmy Carter, Nixon and Harry Truman. And only one has had a higher disapproval rating, Nixon."

Now, any illusions the White House had that the 2008 presidential contest could be repressed until late 2007 have been blown away.

The Gang of 500, every cable network, talk radio host, and pajama-clad blogger is significantly more interested in all things Clinton than they are in health care tax credits, nuanced global warming positions, or Cheney-Pelosi body language.

And between now and Tuesday night's 9 pm SOTU, Hillary Clinton will claim some really choice network television real estate, as well deliver what will surely be the most watched, hyped, and covered video web chats in the (short) history of the medium.

Senator Clinton has already answered many key questions about her presidential campaign, but left some very much tbd.

Now known: she appears ready to be the first candidate in modern times to reject public financing for the nomination and general election campaigns; she will manage the Clinton Brand in a hands-on fashion; she is going to compete hard for the netroots; there will be no photo op left behind.

It is the unknowns, though, that will attract the attention of the impatient.

1. When she announces her national committee of supporters, who will be the senior member of Congress? The senior African-American? The senior Illinoisan? The senior conservative Southerner? The senior pro-lifer?

2. How much opposition research has she collected on herself? And on others? What will be gathered in both categories in the coming weeks and months? And how forthcoming has she been with her staff? Most of all: whither Cheryl Mills?

3. Howard Kurtz's tour de force Washington Post story -- tracking the right-wing Freak Show's first-of-many attempts to muddy up Clinton (and Obama), in this case using the Washington Times-Fox News conveyor belt -- leaves out the key talk radio piece. So: has the Clinton campaign found a way to track right-wing talk radio?

4. Everything else!

In fact, there is a way to begin to answer all of these questions and more.

The key to evaluating Sen. Clinton's chances of taking the White House in 2008 is to understand just how well she knows The Way to Win.

Indeed, the book "The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008," by John F. Harris of The Politico and Mark Halperin of ABC News, has a whole section on Hillary Clinton, which lays out pretty much every aspect of her political character -- her strengths, weaknesses, history, media relationships, professional status and stamina, and her real chance to win the White House.

If you trace Clinton's time in the 1990s (and understand the lessons she learned from losing repeatedly to the political-media Freak Show) -- and if you look at the tactics and strategies she employed in winning her Senate races in 2000 and 2006 and in her Senate career (in which she has mastered the Freak Show and built a political operation that looks at lot more like the Bush-Rove model than the Bill Clinton model) -- you will understand why Hillary Clinton is as well positioned to be the next president of the United States as anyone else making the race.

So do yourself a favor -- if you are a television booker, a pundit, a voter, a Clinton fan, or someone working to stop Hillary Clinton from being the Democratic nominee and the next president.

Put aside the endless cable and Internet chatter and buy yourself a copy of "The Way to Win." LINK

Read Section IX: "Hillary Clinton, the Freak Show, and the Presidency. That includes chapters on "Losing to the Freak Show," "Challenging the Freak Show," "Mastering the Senate, and the Freak Show," "44! (Assets)," and "44? (Liabilities)."

Once you have done that, you will be equipped to understand what is actually going on now, and why.

Today, Sen. Clinton starts her national conversation about the country's future by answering voters questions in a discussion streamed over the Internet on her website tonight at 7:00 pm ET. Her website says that registration for the chat opens shortly before the webcasts begin. The Senator also appears on some network evening newscasts tonight.

Earlier in the day, Sen. Clinton appears with medical experts, 9-11 responders and their family members at a news conference this morning at the World Trade Center site to call on President Bush to include funding for the healthcare of 9-11 responders in this year's budget.

Sunday: kids and health. Monday: homeland security. Once again: think of a turtle on a fence post.

This weekend, the Senator travels to Iowa for her first visit since November 2003. Details of that trip are TBA (and, perhaps, TBD).

Her husband hosts a book party for former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe at the Four Seasons Hotel in New York City this evening. While appearing on NBC's "Today" this morning, McAuliffe depicted Sen. Clinton's pro-war vote as a vote to negotiate with the former Iraqi dictator rather than as a vote to authorize the use of force.

"She voted to give the President the authority to have a stick to go over there and negotiate with Hussein," said McAuliffe.

ABC News' Teddy Davis has more on the Political Radar. LINK

As pro-life activists from across the nation gather for the annual day of protest to commemorate the anniversary of the Supreme Court's 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, President Bush will be out of town for the sixth year in a row and, thus, will be unable to personally attend or appear at the March for Life, reports ABC News' Karen Travers.

As he has done for the last five years in a row, President Bush participates in a phone call of support to March for Life participants at 12:05 pm ET. President Bush returns to the White House in the afternoon. In 2001, Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) read a statement from the President.

Fresh from his official declaration of candidacy and his appearance on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) joined Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) in speaking at the Family Research Council's second annual Blogs4Life conference of pro-life bloggers at 9:00 am ET. At 3:00 pm ET, the Kansas Republican holds an open press reception with pro-life activist at the Capitol Hill Club.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) delivers a speech to Barr Laboratories at the Ritz Carlton in Key Biscayne, FL at 11:00 am ET.

The Senate convenes at 1:00 pm ET and begins to consider raising the minimum wage.

Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Sen. John Warner (R-VA) and Ben Nelson (R-FL) plan to introduce their own non-binding resolution opposing President Bush's plan to increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were scheduled to hold a press conference today at the Blue Room in Manhattan, NY at 9:15 am ET.

For the week ahead schedule, see below.

2008: Democrats: polls:

The Clinton campaign was no doubt pleased to see the Newsweek poll numbers released on Saturday just hours after Sen. Clinton made her announcement showing her quite competitive with top-tier Republicans in a general election match-up. LINK

(Team Edwards will Notice, of course, that the North Carolinian performs best among the Democratic candidates in the general election match-ups.)

Before heading to a very crowded E Street Cinema to see Volver, the Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman got Charlie Cook to weigh in on his cell phone, saying of Sen. Obama: "I think he's going to have a very, very hard time beating her. What you've got is a boxer from the YMCA level going into the world championship fight. He's never taken a punch, he's never had a tough race."LINK

2008: Democrats: Clinton: morning shows:

Most of the first 12 minutes of ABC's "Good Morning America" was dedicated to Sen. Clinton's entrance into the presidential race.

"She's in and we have news about how Sen. Hillary Clinton says she plans to win. Today, challenging the President on his State of the Union, but people are asking, 'Where's Bill?,'" said ABC News' Diane Sawyer in this morning's first headline on "Good Morning America."

ABC News' Kate Snow reported that Sen. Clinton's campaign "says that they've been planning" the pre-SOTU weekend rollout for a month "trying to steal some thunder from President Bush."

Snow included Clinton at her health care event yesterday saying, "I'm in, I'm in to win, and that's what I intend to do."

"It's important to the campaign and to the Senator that she be conveyed to the American public as a real person," said Lisa Caputo in Snow's story.

ABC News' Claire Shipman took a look at the "mixed blessing" that is Bill Clinton. Shipman explored his assets -- popularity, fundraising ability, and political strategy -- and his vulnerabilities -- glutton for the spotlight, and scandal-plagued past.

And ABC News' Chief Washington Correspondent George Stephanopoulos offered up his reporting on how the campaign plans to use 42.

"He's not going to be invisible. He's not going to be holed up in Chappaqua this whole campaign, by any means. Number one -- he's going to be the chief surrogate for Sen. Clinton out on the campaign trail. . . Number two --