The Note: Winter's Tale

— -- WASHINGTON, Jan. 24

NEWS SUMMARY
You don't need to be some sort of mythical half-Alexis-de-Tocqueville-half-Joyce-Brothers beast to read the body language of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi -- and thus to understand what their visceral take on George W. Bush means for the next two years of American politics.

But it will help if you inhale Ruth Marcus' must-read op-ed in the Washington Post if you want to understand that single most important dynamic shaping Iraq policy, the legislative agenda, and the 2008 race.

Writing under a "The Knee-Jerk Opposition" header, Marcus smartly keys off of the dead-on-arrival attitude that Democrats have about Bush's health care plan LINK, but the larger points are these:

1. The Democratic leaders hate the President and don't trust him.
2. Despite their lipservice to working together on other things, as long as Iraq dominates our politics (and fuels more hatred and distrust) NAFTA-like bipartisan deals (on tough stuff like entitlements, health care, and immigration) will be impossible.
3. The Democrats (openly) and the Republicans (increasingly openly) consider the Iraq war to be over politically.
4. As the fair-minded and non-hyperbolic Dan Balz of the Washington Post writes this morning, George W. Bush is tyring "to revive his presidency against what may be the greatest odds any chief executive has faced in a generation."
5. Republicans and Democrats in Congress would vote by secret ballot to end the Bush presidency today if they could by a margin of, oh, 500-35.
6. Under the American system, the President has about two more years to serve.

Add up 1 through 6, and you will pardon us for not being overly excited about President Bush's trip to the battleground state of Delaware today to participate in a tour of DuPont Experimental Station at 10:20 am ET.

He then makes remarks on energy initiatives at 11:00 am ET in Wilmington, DE -- and we predict that the President will not be able to hide the fact that he is no more fired up about this jaunt than we are.

The President then meets in the Oval Office with the incoming commander for NATO International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan at 1:10 pm ET.

Vice President Cheney's interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer airs between 4:00-6:00 pm ET and 7:00-8:00 pm ET, at which time he will tell Blitzer in no uncertain terms (and several times) that he isn't going to discuss an ongoing criminal matter. (Note suggestion to Wolf: try this, "You recently suggested that Scooter Libby is one of the more honest and honorable people you know. Do you feel the same about Karl Rove.")

After a morning show romp, Sen. Obama was scheduled to be on hand for the beginning attends the Senate Foreign Relations Committee business meeting on the Iraq resolution at 9:00 am ET. Sen. Obama presides over the Senate at 5:00 pm ET.

This is day three of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) online chats with voters on her 2008 campaign website. Mrs. Clinton logs on for discussion at 7:00 pm ET, at which point she will express her delight at being there (but not in a Peter Sellers sort of way).

This is probably the biggest Hillary Clinton news of day: The Des Moines Register's Beaumont offers up the still developing details of Sen. Clinton's big Iowa trip this weekend and includes this delicious nugget: "Clinton aides also inquired about attending the Iowa Democratic Party's central committee meeting in Des Moines on Saturday morning, state party officials said." LINK

And be sure not to miss the Union Leader's John DiStaso reporting that Sen. Clinton will make her first Granite State visit on Feb. 3 and Feb. 4 before returning to New Hampshire in March for the New Hampshire Democratic Party's "100 Club" dinner. LINK

United for Peace and Justice holds a news conference to respond to President Bush's State of the Union address and to discuss plans for a January 27 anti-war march in Washington at the National Press Club at 9:30 am ET in Washington, DC.

Brookings holds a discussion entitled, "State of the Union 2007: President Bush Faces a New Congress" at 10:00 am ET.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks at the annual winter meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors at 10:30 am ET at the Capital Hilton Hotel in Washington, DC. The conference began this morning at 9:00 am ET and will run through Friday, January 26. Other speakers at the event include: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) who speaks at 12:30 pm ET, and then at 2:30 pm ET Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden (D-DE) and House Homeland Security Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-MS) both deliver remarks.

Reps. Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-TX), and Maxine Water (D-CA) join actress Susan Sarandon at a press availability following a closed-door meeting with Iraq war veterans on the state of Veteran Affairs Department healthcare at 11:30 am ET at the Rayburn House Office Building. Another subject of the meeting is the "Bring Our Troops Home and Sovereignty of Iraq Restoration Act".

Senate Budget Chairman Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) and House Budget Chairman Sen. John Spratt (D-SC) hold a news conference on the new deficit projections in the Congressional Budget Office's January Budget and Economic Outlook at 2:00 pm ET in the Rayburn House Office Building.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee met this morning for a full mark up on the bipartisan resolution regarding Iraq.

The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Michael Astrue to be commissioner of Social Security at 10 am ET.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa speaks at the National Press Club on poverty and other urban issues beginning at 1:00 pm ET.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) was scheduled to deliver a speech entitled "Official English: The Key to a Successful American Future" at an event organized by ProEnglish at the National Press Club.

The Senate resumes consideration of a bill (HR 2) that would increase the minimum wage to $7.25 per hour.

The Libby trial:
While everyone else focuses on Scooter Libby and Karl Rove, the New York Sun's Josh Gerstein smartly highlights Ari Fleischer's grant of immunity and back channel to David Gregory. LINK

(We wonder if the President -- and his men and women -- knew about how Fleischer handled this.)

The New York Times' Lewis on the Libby defense which seems to be in part centered on the idea that the White House was using him as the scapegoat to protect Karl Rove. LINK

ABC News' Jason Ryan on Libby thinking he was a "scapegoat" for Rove.LINK

New Hampshire:
"'It is not acceptable for Nevada to go before New Hampshire,' Gov. John Lynch told me in a phone interview yesterday," writes Roger Simon of Politico (carried in the New Hampshire Union Leader too LINK) as he reminds us all that the calendar is far less set than many want to believe. LINK

More Simon: "[New Hampshire Secretary of State] Gardner will not allow Nevada to go first, no matter whether Nevada calls its contest a caucus, a primary or a ring-toss."

"That is where the DNC miscalculated. I talked to a DNC source, who asked not to be identified, who said the DNC assumed that because Nevada was going to be a caucus, and since New Hampshire has always allowed the Iowa caucus to go first, New Hampshire would extend the same courtesy to Nevada."

"It won't."

And ponder this: If California moves its primary up to February 5 and early voting (which could account for 40 - 50% of primary ballots cast in the Golden State in 2008) begins on January 7, how will Secretary of State Gardner react to actual primary votes being cast that early?

Bush sells SOTU in Delaware:
"Police officials said they expected little impact from the president's visit on area roads," reports the Wilmington News-Journal. LINK

Be sure to check your bus route: LINK

(Should you run into traffic problems, you can share them here: LINK)

Delaware's congressional delegation was unmoved by the President's appeal to give his troop surge plan time to work, reports Andrew Tangel of the Wilmington News-Journal. LINK

The Wilmington News Journal's Jeff Montgomery explains the work going on at DuPont that attracted the President for his first post-SOTU stop. LINK

"DuPont is working with other companies to produce ethanol from cornstalks and other cellulose-bearing 'biomass,' rather than from corn or other food grains. The company also is pushing development of another alcohol fuel, biobutanol, that is more easily transported and offers more miles per gallon. Currently, grain-based ethanol is more expensive to produce than gasoline and provides less energy."

The News Journal also provides a little history on presidential visits to the First State. LINK

SOTU: morning shows:
ABC News' Stephanopoulos reported that Democrats "had a meeting early yesterday where they discussed how they would take their cues from Nancy Pelosi. And she was very very disciplined on when she got up and when she didn't. Whenever the talk was about the President's strategy on Iraq, she stayed sitting --