The Note: The Way to Lose, Part IV

— -- WASHINGTON, Jan. 25

NEWS SUMMARY
The striped-panted diplomat Karen Hughes has accused The Note of dangerously reinforcing the political conventional wisdom of the moment.

We have never succeeded in convincing her that The Note exists to parody the CW and to push our colleagues in political journalism (and the few other readers we have) to be open to considering the unconventional -- particularly when it comes to being willing to think anew about presidents and the men and woman who want their jobs.

The problem we have -- actually the problem that these men and woman have -- is that once the CW gets set, it is difficult to change it. Of course, the politicians usually bring all this on themselves by losing control of their public images, thus putting the CW in place.

Few who lose control over their images -- or the storylines in which they are starring (or, alas, co-starring) -- have the political skill and strength to win them back. When Bill Clinton and George W. Bush have staged comebacks in their political careers, it has been based on confronting head-on their problems by simultaneously taking back control of their public images and pushing mud on their opponents (from bimbo erupting and draft dodging to "last dog" dying pledges; from "this boy" taking a thumpin' in the New Hampshire primary to a town-meetin' reformer-with-results against the Powerful Chairman of the Powerful Commerce Committee).

The foolish politicians, though, don't focus on regaining control of their images, but divert resources to minor problems, or try to pursue their "positive" agenda with their heads in the sand. This is silly, because until they regain control, the political-media Freak Show will just pound and pound on their piñata and block out everything else.

For examples of how to do this the wrong way, see the chapters on John Kerry and Al Gore in "The Way to Win." LINK

And on this day in history, consider the occifying CWs that threaten to imprison and impale:

George W. Bush: that his presidency is over in every dimension but the temporal. (See Bob Novak's must-read column, especially the kicker graph quote from "a ranking House committee member," who says, "The president and his aides are irrelevant and out of touch, removed from realizing what happened in an election." LINK)

VilsackRichardsonDoddBidenetc: that they can't win, so don't give them money. (See Dick Morris' and Eileen McGann's emphatic endorsement of the Big Three -- ClintonEdwardsObama -- premise. LINK)

Joe Biden: that his inability to control his mouth bespeaks a larger problem -- and not just for those on Foreign Relations or his staff conference calls. (See today's must-read column by the Washington Post's Dana Milbank, miraculously coming out of his month-long slump with a boffo Sketch of the Senator As an Older Man. LINK)

Barack Obama: that he for some reason somehow has to choose if he is going to be an African-American candidate or a white one. (The Washington Post's Michael Fletcher is only the latest to raise the "dilemma"; we leave it to the Onion to write a parody of this piece about a white candidate. LINK)

John Kerry: that the Boston Globe only has to love and respect him after he surrenders. (See today's full wall-to-wall Globe coverage, which David Thorne and Jim Jordan will use to line their bird cages.)

John McCain: that he is watching his presidential campaign self-destruct in slow motion before John Weaver's heavy-lidded eyes because of the Iraq war. (Wait -- that one might actually be right.) (Note to Karen Hughes -- and Weaver: we are kidders.)

Trying to regain control, President Bush will be talking health care today when he visits Lee's Summit, MO. He tours a health-care facility at 10:25 am ET and holds a roundtable discussion at 10:55 am ET. Two days ago, in his State of the Union address, the President proposed reforming the tax code with a standard deduction for health insurance and helping states make affordable private health insurance available.

The Rev. Al Sharpton holds closed press meetings with three Democratic presidential hopefuls today in their respective Senate offices. At 9:00 am ET, he met with Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT). He meets with Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) at 10:45 am ET in Russell 476, and with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) at 4:30 pm ET in Hart 713. Sharpton, not surprisingly, plans to make himself available to the media after each closed press meeting.

Sen. Obama was active on both health care and energy today.

At 9:15 am ET, Sen. Obama he was scheduled to speak to a Families USA conference on health care at the Mayflower Hotel. At 11:30 am ET, Sen. Obama joins Sen. Harkin (D-Iowa caucus), and others on Capitol Hill for an 11:30 am ET press conference on promoting renewable fuels.

The U.S. Conference of Mayors heard from Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) at 8:00 am ET.

The Senate Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on Iraq with former Defense Secretary William Perry and retired Army Gen. John Keane testifying. The meeting was scheduled to begin at 9:30 am ET.

The Senate's Democratic leadership holds a pen and pad briefing in the Capitol at 11:30 am ET on "taking America in a new direction."

The House Republican Conference begins its two day retreat for House Republicans.

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) formally declared his presidential candidacy at 8:00 am ET at the Spartanburg Marriott at Renaissance Park in Spartanburg, SC.

The National Conference of Democratic Mayors (NCDM) will hold a news conference to discuss the meetings at 5:30 pm ET, also at the Capitol Hill Hilton. Participants will include Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, former Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN), and Ed McElroy, president of the American Federation of Teachers.

NARAL Pro-Choice America holds its Roe v. Wade 34th Anniversary Dinner at 6:00 pm ET at the Omni Shoreham in Washington, DC. Participants will include Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).

The White House Press Secretary holds a discussion entitled "Inside the Bush White House" at 7:30 pm ET at George Washington University's Jack Morton Auditorium in Washington, DC.

DC Vote holds a seminar on DC's relationship with Congress at 2:00 pm ET at the Lutheran Church of the Reformation. Participants will include Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Rep. Albert Wynn (D-MD), Michael Fauntroy of George Mason University, and Gary Young of George Washington University.

Must-reads:
The New York Times' Adam Nagourney ledes the paper with the still-in-development 2008 nomination calendar and how it is impacting strategies in both Democratic and Republican campaigns. LINK

Some big states (Florida, New Jersey, Illinois, and California) are likely to move up their contests to right after Iowa and New Hampshire and a few other small early states. They would vote in late January or early February.

The big questions are:

1. Will this change make Iowa and New Hampshire less important or more?

2. Will this change make it more likely or less likely that well-financed frontrunners will win?

3. Will this change make it more likely or less likely that nominees are chosen quickly?

The answers to all three questions are "yes." In other words, for each question, you can make the argument either way now. The safest bet is that Iowa and New Hampshire (along with, to a lesser extent, Nevada -- for the Democrats only -- and South Carolina) will still play the biggest role in winnowing the field of candidates.

But otherwise, the answers to (2) and (3) are unknowable, and will be unknowable for a long, long time.

Under an "Obama's Appeal to Blacks Remains an Open Question" header, the Washington Post's Michael Fletcher has Lorenzo Martin, publisher of the Chicago Standard newspapers, a chain of black-oriented weeklies, saying, "When you look and see who is surrounding him, you are not going to see too many brothers. What you see is the liberal left." LINK

The story also includes the Rev. Jesse Jackson indicating that there is no guarantee that Obama can expect the same kind of support that he enjoyed when he ran for president in 1984 and 1988.

"'He faces some real challenges,' Jackson said. 'First, there will be intense competition for black votes. The other reason is that most black people met him two years ago on television from Boston.'"

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank Sketches the verbosity of Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) at yesterday's Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, ending with this classic exchange: LINK