The Note: In It (to Win It)

— -- WASHINGTON, Feb.6

Rank these items from "most likely" to "least likely" to play a decisive role in determining the identity of the next president of the United States:

A. This paragraph from the New York Times' Steve Weisman news analysis about the Bush budget and the opposition party: "[I]n practice, Democrats know that the only way they can find the revenue to restore the administration's proposed spending cuts would be to cut back on military spending, delay their stated intentions to balance the budget or rescind the Bush tax cuts in future years. They are not especially eager to do any of these."

B. The "logic" of John Podhoretz's Rudy-is-The-Man New York Post op-ed. LINK

C. CBN's muckraking David Brody unveiling (the first of many) Rudy Giuliani golden oldies (this one from a July 2005 "Hannity and Colmes"):

Alan Colmes: Now, Roe versus -- now, you are pro-choice. How important is it to you as a pro-choice Republican to have a pro-choice on the court as someone...Giuliani: That is not the critical factor. And what's important to me is to have a very intelligent, very honest, very good lawyer on the court. And [John Roberts] fits that category, in the same way Justice Ginsburg fit that category. I mean, she was -- she maybe came at it from a very different political background, very qualified lawyer, very smart person. Lots of Republicans supported her. I expect, and listening to Senator Nelson, I expect that John Roberts will get support from a lot of Democrats.

D. Governor Romney's Wednesday Detroit Economic Club speech.

E. Judith Nathan telling Harper's Bazaar: "What people don't know is that Rudy's a very, very romantic guy. We love watching 'Sleepless in Seattle.' Can you imagine my big testosterone-factor husband doing that?" LINK

F. Barack Obama's smoking LINK and worshipping LINK, as chronicled by a Chicago Tribune that is becoming positively Boston Globeian in its hometown candidate obsession.

G. 41's (teary?) West Coast Reaganesque remarks this evening.

H. The ability of each of the Big Six to break $20 million gross from 1/1 through 3/31.

I. The thesis of the Boston Globe's Peter Canellos, who writes in must-read fashion that the Democrats have opened to "huge crowds and intense national interest" while GOPers are suffering from a lack of someone the base fully embraces. LINK

J. The Senate Republicans' filibuster gambit on Iraq.

While the gentlemenly Leaders Reid and McConnell work on a solution to the Senate Iraq impasse, Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans hold their weekly policy luncheons at 12:30 pm ET, at which Democrats will wonder why the press isn't siding more with them, and Republicans will eye the exits and wonder how committed George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are to winning back the majority in 2008.

Floor debate breaks on the Senate between 12:30 pm ET and 3:30 pm ET for those lunches, followed by an intelligence briefing. Then, in theory, the chamber resumes consideration of a bill that would address President Bush's plan to increase troop levels in Iraq. How and when the impasse ends is anyone's guess at this writing.

Meanwhile, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) joins Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA), an Iraq war vet, and Rep. Mike Thompson (D-CA) for a 10:15 am ET press conference to discuss recent legislation they introduced calling for redeployment for all combat troops from Iraq by March 2008.

One day after presenting his $2.9 trillion budget, President Bush travels to Manassas, VA to deliver 10:35 am ET remarks at Micron Technology. The President plans to discuss "fiscal responsibility" as well as his commitment to reforming earmarks and holding down taxes, ABC News' Karen Travers reports.

Several panels take up President Bush's budget on Capitol Hill today, including the Senate's Armed Services and Finance Committees which will hear from Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, respectively, at 9:30 am ET and 2:45 pm ET.

OMB Director Rob Portman appears before the House Budget panel and HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt appears before the Energy and Commerce panel. Both hearings start at 10:00 am ET.

Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), chairman of the House Government Reform Committee, kicks off three days of oversight hearings about Iraq at 10:00 am ET.

The basic subject of today's hearing: how did the U.S. lose $8.8 billion into Iraqi thin air? Testifying will be Stuart Bowen, Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, and Paul Bremer, who will testify for the first time since leaving Iraq. The State Department is blocking testimony from Tim Carney, the Coordinator for Economic Transition in Iraq, reports ABC News' Jake Tapper.

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) is in Washington, D.C. for two days of private meetings with members of Congress, media, and others. This morning he was feted at the Christian Science Monitor's breakfast.

Rep. Jim McCrery (R-LA), former Gov. Mitt Romney's (R-MA) congressional liaison, announces Romney's congressional whip team at a 2:45 pm ET presser at the Capitol Hill Club.

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) delivers 7:00 pm ET remarks at a "Night to Honor Israel" event sponsored by Christians United for Israell at Furman University in Greenville, SC.

Following their weekly House Democratic Caucus meeting, the House Democratic leadership team plans to hold a 1:00 pm ET availability in the House Radio-TV Gallery.

Two hours earlier, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) holds his pen and pad presser.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) will be at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Washington, D.C. today for a 6:30 pm ET congressional dinner sponsored by the Washington Press Club Foundation.

On the left coast, former First Lady Nancy Reagan will present the 2007 Ronald Reagan Freedom Award to former President George H.W. Bush at a gala dinner at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

Big Casino budget politics:
The Wall Street Journal's David Rogers describes the budget battle between the White House and lawmakers on taxes, domestic spending, and the war in Iraq.

"For a president less than two years from the end of his second term, and with his poll numbers low, it was a defiant statement of the principles he has championed for years: the power of tax cuts to drive the economy, the need to spend what it takes to succeed in Iraq and in the broader struggle against terrorism and the necessity of reining in spending on much of the rest of what government does," writes Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times in the paper's main budget story. LINK

The Washington Post team of Abramowitz and Montgomery write that President Bush plans to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan while reining in spending on heath care, education, and other domestic programs. LINK

"Bush Defense Budget Biggest Since Regan Era: Iraq and Afghanistan Spending Top Vietnam War," headlines the Washington Post's Ann Scott Tyson. LINK

"The coming face-off over outlays for the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, social programs and tax cuts will offer a preview to the debates likely to dominate the 2008 elections," write the Los Angeles Times' Joel Havemann and Maura Reynolds about the president's proposed budget.LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar on the budget's proposed changes to Medicare. LINK

"The president's plan for 2008 is much like the budgets he has presented for the past six years, averting new taxes and limiting spending in many 'discretionary' areas while boosting defense spending.... What is different is the political environment in which the president is delivering his newest spending plan," writes the Chicago Tribune's Mark Silva on the budget proposal.LINK

"By criticizing such reductions, Democrats have created a situation where they now must deal with the program's huge future costs and perhaps craft reductions of their own if they are to have any credibility with the public," writes William Neikirk of the Chicago Tribune on the daunting task of drafting their own budget.LINK

The Hill's John Snyder reports on the reception to President Bush's budget by lobbyists and in the Congress. As one Democratic lobbyist said, "It's a dead-on-arrival document that gets everyone in a tizzy," and Snyder says the budget "may have as much to do with what the government ends up spending as Punxsutawney Phil's shadow has with the arrival of spring."LINK

Politics of Iraq:
They weren't able to get an actual vote, or dominate the evening and morning electronic chatter as much as they had hoped, but Democrats did score this New York Times headline above the Gray Lady's lede story: "G.O.P. Senators Block Debate on Iraq Policy" LINK