The Note: Brutal Honesty

— -- WASHINGTON, Feb. 15

About ten percent of the Gang of 500 is made up of political journalists.

The biggest challenge for anyone who is president or who wants to be president is figuring out how to get this group of roughly 50 people to change their collective mind, since it is almost always the case that the group believes that every politician is doomed to failure.

The Note has only two obligations: to be brutally honest about what those 50 people are thinking at any given time, and to plead with the group to be willing to think anew about everyone.

With that -- and reinforcing that the following are the views of the Gang of 50, rather than those of The Note -- here is the state of play for at least the next 45 minutes. All of this was gleaned on a Valentine's Day triple date last night at Galileo with Judy, Al, Carl, and Susan:

George W. Bush -- He is out of touch, out of time, out of luck, and out to invade Iran.

Al Gore -- He's definitely running, which he will announce in September after collecting an Oscar, a Nobel Prize, and lots of publicity; he's definitely not running.

Hillary Clinton -- Can't win unless she says "I made a mistake," at which point she will look weak and indecisive, making it impossible for her to win; too burdened by Clinton Fatigue; a woman can't get elected (at least not THIS woman).

John McCain -- Too old, too temperamental, too anxious to appease the Right, and too damaged by Iraq.

Barack Obama -- Not enough specifics, but, let's face it, we all want to believe again; an African-American can't get elected (well maybe THIS African-American can).

Mitt Romney -- Flip-flopping (Mormon); ruthless (Mormon); opportunistic (Mormon); slick (Mormon); a Mormon can't get elected (not ANY Mormon).

John Edwards -- Ruthless, opportunistic, slick; he needs to sell his big house; and he is really, really ahead in Iowa.

Rudy Giuliani -- That Gallup poll number is eye popping; we'll let him build some more strength before we help him self-destruct; when is he going to answer real questions?

Chris Dodd -- Banking money and DNC ties could make him the last man standing if the Big 3 fall.

Newt Gingrich -- Crazy like a fox, but if Dick Morris is for him, we have to reconsider the whole thing.

Tom Vilsack -- He must win Iowa, at which point, winning Iowa will be adjudged meaningless.

Mike Huckabee -- At some point, a candidate has to turn down certain cable interview requests, or we begin to wonder about the stature question.

Bill Richardson -- Clinton Fatigue and "eye of the tiger" questions are big problems that can only be overcome if he comes in fourth in the first quarter money derby.

Sam Brownback -- Break through on something -- money, an issue, a poll -- and we'll reconsider.

Joe Biden -- No chance to win, but we vote to keep him around for sport; the partition plan might get him the Deputy Secretary slot under Holbrooke.

Jim Gilmore -- We aren't certain we can pick him out of a line-up.

Wes Clark -- Wake us up if he is really in the race, and then we'll go back to sleep.

Tom Tancredo -- Please let him in the debates.

Dennis Kucinich -- Please don't let him in the debates.

Duncan Hunter -- We aren't certain we can pick him out of a line-up.

Mike Gravel -- Please don't let him in the debates.

Chuck Hagel -- Anoint him by consensus now and call off the election.

As for the man who still holds the job all the aforementioned seek, President Bush delivers 10:00 am ET remarks on the global war on terrorism, focusing on Afghanistan, at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, DC.

ABC News' Karen Travers reports that "the President will not announce any new policy but the White House is pitching this as a 'substantive speech' about a 'major front in the global war on terrorism.'"

"His remarks are scheduled to last approximately 50 minutes."

"The speech is hosted by the American Enterprise Institute. There will be 450 people in the audience, including 150 members of the diplomatic corps, 40 Senators and Members of Congress and invited guests of AEI."

"The speech will be a 'comprehensive overview' of where the U.S. has been and where it is going in the war on terror. A 'significant amount' of the speech will be devoted specifically to Afghanistan."

President Bush plans to welcome members of the Congressional Black Caucus to the White House for a meeting at 2:40 pm ET, per ABC News' Ann Compton.

The House of Representatives meets at 10:00 am ET to continue debate on the Iraq war resolution.

Attempting to set the terms of debate before heading into the President's Day week-long congressional recess. . .

The Senate Democratic leadership (Reid, Durbin, Schumer, and Murray) holds a 10:30 am ET pad & pen session with reporters.

The Senate Republican leadership (McConnell, Kyl, Cornyn, and Ensign) highlight their goals on camera at 12:30 pm ET in the Senate Radio/TV gallery.

Former Vice President Al Gore and Live 8 Producer Kevin Wall announce a global climate crisis campaign and concert at 12:30 pm ET at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, CA. When asked, Gore will say he has no plans to run for president, and then 148 reporters will e-mail/call Mike Feldman.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) holds a 7:00 pm ET fundraiser and rally at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center in Boston, MA.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), fresh off an Imus appearance, pays a 10:30 am ET visit to Meals on Wheels in Nashua, NH, and has a 12:15 pm ET lunch with New Hampshire Senate Democrats in Concord, NH. The Senator then speaks at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard at 2:45 pm ET in Kittery, ME, and attends in a 4:15 pm ET meet-and-greet in Portsmouth, NH.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) plans to attend the Senate Armed Services Committee 9:30 am ET hearing on military readiness with Army Chief of Staff Gen. Peter Schoomaker and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. James Conway. At 10:15 am ET, Clinton plans to join Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) to host "a celebration of the enactment of legislation requiring that a statue of Sojourner Truth be placed permanently in the United States Capitol."

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) participates in the AARP's health conference at 11:00 am ET at the Reagan Trade Building. He then joins an 11:30 am ET forum on climate change at the Russell Senate Building, and later holds a 1:30 pm ET discussion on Iraq at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.

Former Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) appears on NBC's "Tonight Show with Jay Leno", airing at 11:30 pm ET. (Gov. Vilsack plans to hold a 9:30 pm ET conference call with reporters at the conclusion of his taping with Leno.)

First Lady Laura Bush participates in an 11:00 am ET discussion on malaria control in Africa, sponsored by the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives, at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, DC.

Several opponents of the President's Iraq troop increase hold a 1:30 pm ET press conference at the Capitol in Washington, DC. Participants include House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Lantos (D-CA), Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA), Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN), Vote Vets.org National Chairman Jon Soltz, and Iraq war veterans Robert Loria and Andrew Horne.

In a videotaped interview at 11:00 am ET, Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA) will outline details of a strategy to use appropriations to oppose the war in Iraq at www.MoveCongress.org.

Politics of Iraq:
In a must-read, the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman has one anonymous Republican lawmaker who is "close to the leadership" saying that GOP leaders have "50 to 60 Republicans on their watch list, with between 40 and 60 expected to break with the White House tomorrow." LINK

Weisman Notes that Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) "threatened to block a planned week-long recess" in the Senate "unless Democratic and Republican leaders first agree on terms for bringing to a vote a bipartisan resolution opposing the troop buildup."

"For a time on Wednesday, an unusual scene played out on the House floor, with some Republicans coming forward one by one to speak against the Iraq policy while fellow party members argued against them," writes Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's ed board calls this week's House debate on a vote of no-confidence in the mission in Iraq "one of the most shameful moments in the institution's history."

The Washington Post's Walter Pincus reports that Democrats on the Senate intelligence panel have questioned whether the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq "gave political advantage to the Bush administration by making 'rapid withdrawal' of U.S. troops the only alternative military option the NIE explored." LINK

Presidential presser:
ABC News' Karen Travers and Nitya Venkataraman report on Bush's press conference yesterday where he insisted to reporters that Iran is supplying insurgents in Iraq with weapons. LINK

"What you actually saw was both the press and the President learning from the lessons of the Iraq war," said ABC News' George Stephanopoulos to Charlie Gibson during the network's live coverage of the presidential press conference. "A lot of the reporters in that room determined to press on the quality of this intelligence and how the Administration knew what it was claiming, and the President determined not to over-promise, not to make claims that he couldn't support, about whether the senior officials in the Iranian government were actually behind this," added Stephanopoulos.