The Note: Frontrunners Were Made to Be Broken

— -- WASHINGTON, Feb. 20

If you skipped television and the papers over the President's Day weekend, you are in grave, grave danger.

To the rescue, complete with all due modesty, with your weekend must-sees and must-reads, The Note:

Roger Simon, Dan Balz (with 2!), and Adam Nagourney tone poems on The 2007 Spirit of John McCain. LINK, LINK, LINK, and LINK
(Note the campaign officials talking on background about strategy and division in that last one.)

NOTE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE: WHEN, IF EVER, IS MCCAIN GOING TO GO INTO FULL-TIME HAPPY WARRIOR MODE, AND CAN HE WIN IF HE DOESN'T?

George Stephanopoulos, ABC News, and Newsweek on Mitt Romney, who just might be a Mormon flipper, but not, his defenders will tell you, a flip-flopper. LINK, LINK, LINK, LINK, LINK, and LINK

NOTE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE: WILL ROMNEY'S NEW (EARLY!) TV AD HELP, AND WHAT ARE HIS CAMPAIGN STAFF TELLING HIM "PRIVATELY" ABOUT HOW THE FLIP-FLOP FOCUS IS PLAYING WITH THE GANG OF 500? (Hint: read Richard Cohen's column on Romney maybe renouncing his Mormon faith. LINK)

Tom Beaumont of the Des Moines Register on the Republican Big 3 and their lust for the Right LINK, and David Yepsen on the enthusiasm gap between the parties that favors the Democrats. LINK

NOTE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE: WHO WILL WIN THE YEPSEN PRIMARY AND WHICH REPUBLICAN -- CANDIDATE OR NOT -- WILL CONVINCE HIM THAT 2008 CAN BE A GOP YEAR?

Hillary Clinton's enemies are gearing up LINK

or, alternatively, are surprisingly dormant LINK

NOTE QUESTION ABOUT THE FUTURE: DOES JOHN PODHORETZ'S MUST-READ NEW YORK POST COLUMN -- IN WHICH HE FREAKS OUT ABOUT CHRIS RUDDY AND RICHARD M. SCAIFE NOW CLAIMING TO THINK THAT BILL CLINTON WAS "A PRETTY GOOD PRESIDENT" -- FORESHADOW THE CRACKING UP OF THE ANTI-CLINTON MOVEMENT? LINK

Case Study #2 in our series "How Barack Obama's campaign is going to deal with scrutiny," courtesy of the Los Angeles Times and Robert Gibbs. LINK and LINK

NOTE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE: DOES THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN HAVE SOMEONE GOING CAREFULLY THROUGH HIS TWO BOOKS -- FOR STARTERS -- TO LOOK FOR EVERY LANDMINE, AND IS OBAMA COOPERATING IN THAT PROCESS?

What happens when the Boston Globe actually turns on a candidate not from Massachusetts, in Rick Klein's three-dimensional-chess piece on the Kerry camp claiming, contrary to John Edwards' post-facto claim, that Edwards did not clamour to fight back again Bush-Cheney in 2004. LINK

NOTE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE: WILL EDWARDS TRY TO DEFUSE THIS TENSION NOW BEFORE IT STRIKES AGAIN, AND DID ELIZABETH EDWARDS READ THAT GLOBE PIECE WITH A HIGHLIGHTER IN HAND?

What Hillary Clinton is doing instead of apologizing for her Iraq vote (courtesy of Pat Healy's must-read in the New York Times LINK -- Note the campaign officials talking on background about strategy and division in this one, along with the Big Hand of Mark Penn), and why Paul Krugman is not pleased LINK, and Dick Morris is (not) afraid. LINK

NOTE QUESTION ABOUT THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE: DID CLINTON GET THE APOLOGY BUGABOO OFF OF HER BACK AS THE CAMPAIGN INTENDED?

The more immediate question for Clinton is what will happen tonight in La-La Land, when the Hollywood four-some of Steven Spielberg, David Geffen, Jeffrey Katzenberg, and Andy Spahn host a closed press fundraiser this evening for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

According to David M. Halbfringer's curtain raiser in the New York Times, Tom Hanks, Jennifer Aniston, Eddie Murphy, and Denzel Washington are among the stars who reportedly bought tickets for the cocktail reception and "studio bosses from Universal, Paramount, Disney and 20th Century Fox have all sent checks or faxed their credit card numbers, too." LINK

Earlier in the day, Sen. Obama makes a 5:00 pm ET appearance at the Rancho Cienega Sports Complex in Los Angeles, CA.

Fresh from a significant interview on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," former Gov. Mitt Romney's (R-MA) campaign announced earlier today that it will become the first major presidential candidate to air a 2008 television ad. The ad is set to air starting Wednesday, and, spokesguy Kevin Madden says, will air ultimately in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida. LINK

Romney says in the ad: "This is not a time for more talk and dithering in Washington. It's a time for action." The campaign is refusing to disclose the size, scope, or duration of the buy.

More from the AP's Glen Johnson. LINK

Closing arguments in the trial of Scooter Libby get underway today following a final review of jury instruction proposals which were scheduled to begin at 9:00 am ET. The jury could receive instructions and begin deliberations tomorrow. On cue, Vice President Cheney is in Japan for meetings with the emperor and prime minister.

President Bush participates in a 10:10 am ET swearing-in ceremony for John Michael McConnell as the second Director of National Intelligence at Bolling Air Force Base in Washington, DC. He participates in a 1:15 pm ET meeting on health-care initiatives at the White House.

First Lady Laura Bush Attends a 10:30 am ET briefing on the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Marine National Monument, hosted by the Council on Environmental Quality, at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, DC.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is in Georgia and South Carolina today. While in Florence, SC, Sen. McCain will pick up the endorsement of state Sen. Hugh Leatherman at a 3:00 pm ET press conference, reports the Politico's Jonathan Martin. LINK

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) holds a 3:15 pm ET "Conversation with Community Leader" in Miami, FL. The event is hosted by Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL).

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) delivers 12:45 pm ET remarks to the Carson City Democratic Party at Comma Coffee in Carson City, NV, and gives a 10:00 pm ET address to the Nevada Committee on Foreign Relations at the University of Nevada-Reno in Reno, NV.

White House Press Secretary Tony Snow turns the tables on the press at 8:00 pm ET when he questions members of the press including Bob Schieffer of CBS News, David Gregory of NBC News, Terry Hunt of the Associated Press, Mark Knoller of CBS Radio, April Ryan of American Urban Radio, Sheryl Stolberg of the New York Times, and Richard Wolffe of Newsweek. (C-SPAN will have live coverage).

On Wednesday, C-SPAN will have live coverage at 3:00 pm ET of the AFSCME-sponsored Democratic presidential candidates forum in Carson City, NV, in which the candidates will be questioned by George Stephanopoulos of ABC News.

The Supreme Court hears 10:00 am ET oral arguments on sentencing guidelines in Rita v. United States, and Claiborne v. United States.

The Senate is in recess until Monday, Feb. 26. The House is in recess until Tuesday, Feb. 27.

Libby trial:
Keying off of the Libby trial winding down, the Washington Post's Michael Abramowitz looks at the apparently declining influence of Vice President Cheney in President Bush's second term. LINK

"One former administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk more candidly, said Cheney's office has 'disappeared' on foreign policy under Libby's replacement, David Addington, and the vice president's foreign policy adviser, John P. Hannah. 'Addington and Hannah are smart people, but they are no Scooter. Scooter worked 25 hours a day and he had Addington and Hannah working for him, so it was a powerful combination," this source said. "The result is that Cheney is taking a back seat, and there is no check or balance on Condi in foreign policy. It is what Condi decides and what the president agrees to.'"