The Note: The Flames Go Higher

— -- WASHINGTON, Feb. 23

Review our three political rings:

Ring 1: Iraq.

Ring 2: other legislative business.

Ring 3: 2008.

As we do every Friday, then, let's prep you for the Friday cocktail hour by going over how the rings are interacting.

Ring 1 is largely determining the contours of Ring 3.

Ring 1 is bringing Ring 2 to a grinding halt.

Ring 3 is also limiting progress in Ring 2.

To be more specific:

Ring 1 (Iraq): See ABC News' Jon Karl's second consecutive worldwide exclusive interview with Vice President Cheney, in which he continues to question Speaker Pelosi's judgment (but never ever her patriotism) on Iraq. LINK See the Democrats in Congress not falling into the Republicans' trap (yet) and avoiding a stop-the-war strategy that will (fully) open them up to charges of abandoning the troops. As they tinker with various legislative efforts to achieve their goal of bringing American troops home, Democrats have three main goals: (1) appease their base; (2) keep their coalition together; and (3) most of all, pressure enough Republicans to demand that the President change course. Oh: and: as a political matter, is the surge working?

Ring 2 (other legislative business): If you think that the Bush-Cheney posture on the war is putting Pelosi and Leader/boxer Reid in the mood to bipartisanly strategize about how to pull off tough victories on health care, entitlements, energy, education, and/or immigration, we have a Presidio we would like to sell you. And if you think that the weakened Bush White House can deliver, say, the 70 Republican House votes on possible deals that the Democrats will demand, we have a mountain in Wyoming we want to sell you. Watch the Pelosi body language on the Leno couch. The longer Ring 1 produces distrust and animous between the Democratic leaders and the White House-Hill Republicans, the less likely there will be progress in Ring 2. And the closer that hatred (yes, "hatred") pushes potential action to January, 2008, the more likely it is that congressional Democrats (and, also, congressional Republicans) will say that they are going to wait for their presidential nominee's plans on all these things before moving forward.

Ring 3 (2008): Both frontrunners this past week tried to deal with the reality that Iraq is ruining their campaigns. Hillary Clinton pulled her "vote for someone else if you don't like my record" act out on the issue, and also tried to turn the focus to the future. (She had some success, but then was Geffened.) John McCain tried to have a high-profile event that wouldn't be dominated by Iraq by appearing with Arnold Schwarzenegger on global warming. (He had some success, but then he was Cheneyed.)

Beneath the Geffen cloud, watch closely these 2008 developments:

1. The Clinton campaign is the first (of the Big 6) to go for a high-profile Howard Dean-style Internet baseball bat-type fundraising drive. Launched on Geffen Day by a Bill Clinton mass e-mail, the goal is to raise $1 million on the web in one week. Three days in, they are nearing $400,000. If you don't know why this is key, you aren't paying enough attention. LINK

2. Watch closely the nearly-below-the-radar efforts of McCain to eliminate Mitt Romney, and wonder when either McCain or Romney will decide it is time to start to eliminate Rudy Giuliani.

3. Wait to see just how big a crowd Barack Obama draws in Austin, Texas today. Note prediction: very big. LINK

4. John Edwards passed with flying colors his first test of "How to Sneak up the Middle" against Clinton and Obama. But there are more tests coming.

5. Those outside the Big 6 learned again: it is going to be tough to break in.

Making it tougher still to break in: the media's obsession with the man who would make the Big 6 the Big 7. Basically, the political press wants to tempt Al Gore into the race, and then they will destroy him as a flip-flopping, exaggerating, stiff, loser. And Gore knows this.

As the world awaits the former Vice President's Sunday "red carpet" moment and his plans – win or lose -- to attend the Governor's Ball and Vanity Fair parties, Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) campaign is anticipating more than 10,000 people at a 3:00 pm ET rally at Auditorium Shores in Austin, TX. LINK

Keying off of Tony Blair's troop withdrawal announcement, Obama plans to reiterate his call for beginning a phased troop withdrawal on May 1 with the goal of removing all combat troops by March 31, 2008. The Obama plan currently has 30 supporters in Congress including two co-sponsors in the Senate and 28 sponsors on the House companion bill (HR 787). (The two Senate co-sponsors of Obama's bill are the Green Mountain State duo of Leahy and Sanders.)

At 3:00 pm ET, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is speaking at a luncheon event being co-presented by the Discovery Institute which ABC News' Jake Tapper refers to as "the controversial organization that promotes intelligent design theory and combats Darwinism" in his ABCNews.com curtain raiser. LINK

Although the luncheon is being formally hosted by the CityClub of Seattle and the Seattle World Affairs Council, McCain is "being hammered" by the liberal "Campaign to Defend the Constitution" for associating with the Discovery Institute which is one of several organizations "co-presenting" the event.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) attends a luncheon at 3:00 pm ET at the Sheraton Palace Hotel in San Francisco, CA. Be sure to read Variety's recap of Sen. Clinton's Tinseltown fundraising on Thursday including a meeting with the CAA partners. LINK

?categoryid=18&cs=1">LINK (And ignore the New York Post's reporting that Bill Clinton is raising Gotham coin today; he actually did it last night in Westchester.)

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) has a 9:00 am ET tour of GT Solar, Inc in Merrimack, NH followed by 10:00 am ET media availability.

As Republican '08ers continue to prepare for the March 1 straw poll in South Carolina's Spartanburg and Cherokee Counties, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) participates in a 11:00 am ET breakfast with the anti-tax group FreedomWorks in South Carolina. And, yes, thanks to Brian Lamb, we all now know that Rick Beltram IS Rocky.

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI) delivers an 6:30 pm keynote address at a College Republican fundraiser at the West Des Moines Marriot in Iowa.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) appears on NBC's "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno."

Maintaining his energy focus, President Bush holds a 10:35 am ET meeting with transportation fuel experts and researchers in the Roosevelt Room at the White House. The President then views a demonstration of alternative fuel automobiles on the South Lawn of the White House at 11:25 am ET.

President Bush is aiming to reduce gasoline consumption by 20 percent over the next 10 years.

The jury in the trial of Scooter Libby begins its third day of deliberations today.

The Senate is in recess until Monday, Feb. 26. The House is in recess until Tuesday, Feb. 27.

On ABC News' 'This Week', ABC News' George Stephanopoulos interviews former President Jimmy Carter. The roundtable is a classic with ABC News' Sam Donaldson, Cokie Roberts, and George Will. And this week's voices will be Patrick Dempsey from Grey's Anatomy.

See below for weekend calendar items including the start of the NGA, DGA, and RGA activities.

Politics of Iraq:
"Senate Democratic leaders intend to unveil a plan next week to repeal the 2002 resolution authorizing the war in Iraq in favor of narrower authority that restricts the military's role and begins withdrawals of combat troops," reports the Washington Post's Shailagh Murray and Jonathan Weisman. LINK