The Note: From the Omni Shoreham to the Pettus Bridge

— -- WASHINGTON, Mar. 2

Whether it's hanging out at a Conservative Political Action Conference hotel bar or dropping in on Jay Carson's birthday party, this weekend will present many challenging moments when a Bill Kristol or a Beau Willimon LINK might turn to you and ask, "What's up with the three Rings?"

Your answers (for now):

Ring 1 (Iraq):
The Democrats' congressional leadership have completely lost all momentum on ending the war. Unless they come up with something deeply bicameral that can't be cast as a "slow bleed"; unless they can simultaneously satisfy the blogger/Murtha wing, the presidential candidates, and their Red State Members of Congress; unless they can pick off GREATER numbers of Republicans, rather than fewer; and unless they can (for once) outfox Mitch McConnell -- unless they do all these things, they are going to have to wait months (not weeks) and see if the President's troop introduction works (or doesn't) before they can actually get anything done.

Ring 2 (other legislative business):
Flairs on immigration only prove the point: bitterness over Iraq makes needle-threading bipartisan deals close to impossible.

Ring 3 (2008):
It's all about fundraising; campaigns abandoning quietish trench warfare in favor of standing on the trenches and firing bazookas at each other; and the dropping of opposition research on everyone BUT Ben Smith.

And/but, for the next 72 hours, it's all about the Republicans' CPAC meeting and the unexpected convergence in Selma, Alabama of America's first black president, his wife, and the man who might become the nation's actual first black president. While every effort will be made by the participants to commemorate this sacred and important event with dignity, some of the media is bound and determined to turn it into a Freak Show face-off.

But the GOP is up first, with presidential candidates galore in line to speak today and tomorrow, just as the Big 3 frontrunners (and their staffs) have started to forget the 11th Commandment about not criticizing fellow Republicans, and former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore aides and abets the process of saying the Big 3 are not true conservatives.

Duncan Hunter was scheduled to speak at 8:30 am ET, Gov. Huckabee is slated for 10:00 am ET, Mayor Giuliani is expected to take the stage at noon ET.

The afternoon brings Rep. Tancredo to the podium at 1:00 pm ET followed by Sen. Brownback at 1:30 pm ET. Gov. Romney addresses the crowd at 2:45 pm ET.

Later this evening, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) keynotes at 7:30 pm ET at CPAC's Ronald Reagan banquet.

The candidates hold various receptions and media availabilities around their speeches.

Sen. McCain declined an invitation to appear at CPAC. The Senator participates in a media availability in Salt Lake City, UT with Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. at 12:30 pm ET. This evening there will be an open press fundraiser in Phoenix, AZ with Sen. McCain and Gov. Huntsman at 9:30 pm ET at the Phoenix Convention Center. The Senator plans to gaggle with reporters in Phoenix from 10:30-10:45 pm ET.

For more on the Sunday event featuring 2/3 of the Democrats' Big 3, see below.

After his CPAC stint, Rep. Tom Tancredo hits the road for a 6:00 pm ET Jones County Beef & Noodle Dinner at the Moose Lodge in Anamosa, IA.

President Bush delivers 2:40 pm ET remarks on No Child Left Behind reauthorization at Silver Street Elementary School in New Albany, IN. He then travels to Louisville, KY to deliver a 5:35 pm ET address in support of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) at a National Republican Senatorial Committee reception at the Seelbach Hilton. (The Louisville Courier-Journal's ed board is none too pleased with Sen. McConnell's schedule today. LINK)

After a round of taped network morning show interviews aired this morning, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) attends a pen and pad 12:30 pm ET AIPAC briefing at the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers in Chicago, IL. Sen. Obama is likely to talk about Iran and his vision for the Middle East.

Coming to an inbox near you, the Republican National Committee plans to meta-help the Clinton campaign with a research document going after Sen. Obama's foreign policy credentials and intimate that the presidential contender has been late to the foreign policy arena. The RNC highlights Jeff Zeleny's recent New York Times reporting that "when he arrived in Washington he waited 11 months to deliver a major speech on Iraq" and that Obama had not announced a troop withdrawal deadline from Iraq before entering the presidential race.

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) holds a 3:00 pm ET meeting with United Farm Workers President Arturo Rodriguez at Casa Velasco in Fresno, CA.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) delivers a 10:30 am ET address at the University of South Carolina's Moore School of Business in Columbia, SC, and has a 5:00 pm ET meeting with York County Democrats at party headquarters in Rock Hill, SC.

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-MN) begins a busy weekend in Iowa, starting in Des Moines with a 1:30 pm ET luncheon with Polk County Democrats at Latin Kings Restaurant, followed by a 2:20 pm ET meet and greet with "Young Democrats" at Drake University, a 5:30 pm ET coffee with MeetUp supporters and Iowa bloggers at the Breakroom Cyber Café, and ending with a 7:30 pm ET house party with Rep. Mark Davitt (D-IA) in Indianola, IA.

Sens. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) participate in a noon ET briefing on violence against women at the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, DC.

Former President Bill Clinton (D-AR) takes part in the Landon Lecture series with 4:30 pm ET remarks at Kansas State University in Manhattan, KS.

Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO), Karl Rove, and Dick Wadhams address the Colorado GOP in Littleton, CO at a 9:00 pm ET fundraising dinner.

Don't miss "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday when George sits down exclusively with Treasury Secretary Paulson.

2008: Republicans: setting the CPAC stage:
Rudy Giuliani's decision to attend CPAC has made the absence of McCain, who will be in Utah and Arizona, "more conspicuous", according to an aide working for aMcCain rival.

"The definition of conservative is what you believe, not which meetings you attend," counters McCain spokesman Matt David, who knows his candidate can boast of many key conservative supporters around the country. LINK

When asked a year ago if McCain could overcome doubts among conservatives in his second presidential run, American Conservative Union President David Keene, the chief sponsor of the CPAC conference, told ABC News: "Frankly, I doubt it."

On the eve of this year's '08er speeches to CPAC, Kirby Wilbur, a member of the CPAC board of directors, told ABC News that he thinks McCain has "sunk deeper in the hole" with conservative activists since last year, citing his criticism of President Bush on global warming, his "teaming up with Ted Kennedy on immigration," and the "fact that he has snubbed" this year's conference.

Can someone emerge as the CPAC favorite this weekend? Only time will tell.

Conservatives appear not to have much love for Republican '08ers, the Boston Globe's Milligan reports. LINK

After the Romney campaign told ABC News' Teddy Davis that it could not substantiate the former governor's claim to the Christian Broadcasting Network that Giuliani is "pro-gay marriage," a source close to the Giuliani campaign told ABC News: "It is sad but unfortunately not surprising, that Mitt Romney's flailing campaign has chosen to misrepresent Rudy's positions. He can't keep his own positions straight let alone Rudy's." LINK

"Unless the GOP finds a fantasy candidate they're stuck with McCain, Giuliani, and Romney. Which means the conservative vote is up for grabs. McCain's advisers know their candidate has problems with conservatives but argue that of the three, he has the most conservative record. But policy positions may not make the difference. No matter how much pandering he does, McCain can't stop conservatives from flocking to Rudy regardless of his record, either because they're emotionally drawn to the former mayor or because they can't stand the competition. It won't be clear how far McCain can go until it's clear how far Rudy will fall," writes John Dickerson of Slate in a must-read look at McCain's launch strategy and plan to recapture some of that 2000 magic. LINK