The Note: Springing Forward

— -- WASHINGTON, Mar. 9

Even losing one hour this weekend, there will still be numerous gab-ops to share your insights -- cribbed from The Note -- about the three rings of American politics.

Ring 1 (Iraq):All this in the House LINK, and then all this in the Senate LINK, and, then, inevitably, leading to this LINK (and/but it is not clear that either of the first two contraptions will work or, if they do, that the Democrats then will get something out of conference committee). So we know there IS a point somewhere, but remind us what it might be.

Ring 2 (other legislative business leading to bipartisan legacy deals): Even deader than last Friday. (See Ring 1, above, per usual.)

Ring 3 (2008): The Note's wild guess of the order of finish of the Big Six total raised in the first quarter (NOT cash on hand and not including transferred funds or self funding) -- Clinton, Obama, McCain, Edwards, Romney, Giuliani. Or -- Clinton, McCain, Obama, Edwards, Giuliani, Romney. Or -- Clinton, McCain, Romney, Obama, Edwards, Giuliani. Or -- something else, as long as you've got Clinton first.

Our point: It is all about the fundraising, and yet not even Susan Page knows how it's all going to turn out. Our second point: Clinton, McCain, and Romney will have the highest burn rate of spending money this quarter, and their disbursement records are going to be required reading.

And our real point (which we have made before): this is ALL the campaigns care about right now, even more than Iraq, parking tickets, and how to keep their kids from answering the phone when reporters call.

Ok, the Republican candidates ALSO care about Rudy Giuliani's rise and the possible entry of Newt Gingrich (a lot, along with his interview with Dr. Dobson), Chuck Hagel (not as much), and Fred Thompson (also not as much). (Don't miss Politico's Jonathan Martin must-read story with background quotes galore from the McCain and Romney camps, who both appear confident that the country still has much to learn about Rudy Giuliani and it likely will do so before too long. One Romney aide tells Martin, "it will be Rudy's turn." LINK)

And the Democratic candidates ALSO care about Barack Obama taking Manhattan tonight for big coin events, and Lynn Sweet of the Sun Times cares about the fact that Obama is doing a lot of private, secret, closed donor events LINK, and the Chicago Tribune cares about keeping the Obama stock story alive. LINK

Obama and his wife Michelle hold some multi-tiered fundraising events at the Grand Hyatt in New York, NY this evening around 8:00 pm ET, and Sweet will find the evening bittersweet, with some of the events pooled and some closed press.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) travels to the Carolinas today where he will raise coin and pick up the endorsement of Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) at a 2:00 pm ET in Charlotte, according to the Politico's Jonathan Martin.LINK

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) plans to discuss Cuba when he delivers 7:00 pm ET remarks at the Lincoln Day Dinner in Miami, FL. Romney will talk to the press following his speech.

Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) holds a 1:15 pm ET community meeting to discuss his health-care plan in Sioux City, IA. He then travels to Sioux City, IA for a 6:15 pm ET community meeting on his health care plan.

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) holds a 6:00 pm ET town hall meeting to discuss Iraq at the Des Moines Club in Des Moines, IA.

Harold Schaitberger, the president of the firefighter union at odds with the post-9/11 record of Rudy Giuliani, delivers unrelated 10:00 am ET testimony to the House Appropriations Committee with FEMA Director David Paulson. The topic: preparing for disasters.

In his first stop on his Latin American trip, President Bush holds a 12:45 pm ET joint press availability with Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva.

The Senate reconvenes at 9:15 am ET and resumes consideration of a bill (S 4) that would implement the remaining recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. At 9:30 a.m., the chamber proceeds to a vote on a motion to invoke cloture on a sweeping amendment that combines five different GOP proposals.

Be sure to tune into "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday for interviews with Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) as well as former Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS). The roundtable will include Fareed Zakaria and Torie Clark. This week's voice: Loretta Lynn.

See below for Saturday and Sunday politics.

Politics of Iraq:
ABC News' Jake Tapper reports on House Democrats' showdown over Iraq, attaching a provision to withdrawal troops to the supplemental spending bill. "No matter what," said Speaker Pelosi, "by March 2008, redeployment begins." LINK

The Washington Times has an unnamed Republican aide offering a possible Bush response to the Democrats' plan for Iraq: "The president can ignore it... what's the 'or else?' " LINK

"The House spending bill . . . would end combat duties by Aug. 31, 2008," reports the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman and Shailagh Murray.LINK

Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) was on NBC's "Today" selling the new House Iraq withdrawal plan, and addressed its political feasibility. "The public spoke during the election, and I'm optimistic," said Rep. Murtha, and added, "We'll negotiate with the Senate to reduce the cost of this war and to reduce the war itself."

Asked if the President's current plan should be given more time, Rep. Murtha said, "I believe we'll be able to tell if this surge is working" within two months.

Ann Compton of ABC News reports on President Bush's veto threat for Pelosi's Iraq withdrawal plan. LINK

ABC News' Dean Norland reports that the House "Out of Iraq and Progressive Caucus" is ready to fight for a December 31, 2007 withdrawal deadline.LINK

"Given the Republican opposition and the Democrats' slender margin in the Senate, the significance of the new plans was as much political as it was legislative. Democratic leaders in the House were optimistic about passing their legislation, but their counterparts in the Senate faced immediate resistance from Republicans and acknowledged that their chances of attracting enough votes seemed slim," write Jeff Zeleny and Robin Toner of the New York Times below a "Democrats Rally Behind a Pullout From Iraq in '08" headline. LINK

"The proposals dramatically shift the debate on Capitol Hill from symbolic measures to concrete plans to bring troops home just two months after Democrats assumed power," write the Los Angeles Times' Levey and Simon. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's David Rogers sees Pelosi as struggling to unite her party as she faces her toughest challenge as Speaker, complete with a Rogers-Pelosi tete-a-tete.

In his news analysis, the Los Angeles Times' Paul Richter writes of the Democratic shift to the endgame, but concludes with what players at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue understand -- it's all about the facts on the ground in Baghdad. LINK

The Washington Times' Christina Bellatoni finds confusion bringing "comic relief" to the House Democrats' new bill. LINK

The Washington Post's Shailagh Murray finds that Democrats have found a single voice on Iraq via their new "it club," the War Council. LINK

Mike Soraghan and Jackie Kucinich have Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) saying over yesterday's new Democratic proposal, "President Bush has learned nothing from Vietnam. Now the question is, has Congress learned anything from Vietnam?" LINK

USA Today: "House Dems face uphill battle over Iraq". LINK

Chicago Tribune: LINK

2008: Republicans: Gingrich:
ABC News' Jake Tapper reports: "Setting the stage for his entry into the presidential race, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Georgia, gave a radio interview to be broadcast Friday with Focus on the Family's Dr. James Dobson's, in which Gingrich for the first time publicly acknowledges and discusses cheating on his first and second wives." (LINK questions come at 16:27 into the interview.)