The Note: February Sanity

— -- WASHINGTON, Mar. 16

Newbies: see previous Notes for explanation of the Rings.

Vets: Clip and save.

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Ring 1 (Iraq):
Congressional Democrats have rolled the boulder 1/9th the way up the short-term mountain, and in so doing, have unified 8/9th of congressional Republicans in support of the White House, and, in so doing, have not impacted the President's intentions one whit.

Ring 2 (the prospects for bipartisan legislative legacy compromises):
If you consider the shared Bolten-Schumer desire for a proper Gonzales outcome to be a legacy compromise, sure. Otherwise, the rest of it is deader and deader as the weeks go by, with Ring 1 still the biggest obstacle.

Ring 3 (2008):
In past presidential cycles of the modern era: (1) the de facto nominees have been determined in February, or, otherwise in March (which is just one month after February); (2) candidates always have tried to raise as much money as they can, starting early in the year before the election; (3) after Iowa and New Hampshire yield their results, candidates who don't finish in one of the top three slots are asked different versions of the same question ("When are you dropping out of the race?") 1,000 times a day, and they are asked NOTHING else; (4) campaigning in states other than Iowa and New Hampshire (and perhaps one or two others) has been through television advertising, free media, and tarmac-to-tarmac sprints; (5) wealthy and well-known candidates have had a big advantage; and, (6) candidates with real ideas for the nation have done well. All these things are likely to be true in 2008, but not MORE true than in the past -- and some of them might be LESS true.

On 2008 money, it is nearly time for campaigns (a) to start playing the expectations game -- in earnest -- regarding where they will finish in the first-quarter derby; and, (b) to decide when and how they will put out -- by leak or press release -- their actual numbers (with none of the Big 6, we would guess, leading their announcements with cash on hand).

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It is unclear at this writing whether or not Attorney General Gonzales will head to Capitol Hill to do some political outreach today.

Valerie Plame Wilson plans to testify before a 10:00 am ET hearing of the House Oversight Committee on whether White House officials followed appropriate procedures for safeguarding her CIA identity.

President Bush was scheduled to meet with his Commission on Care for America's Returning Wounded Warriors at 9:00 am ET. At 9:55 am ET, President Bush participates in a Shamrock Ceremony in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, followed by a 10:10 am ET Oval Office meeting with Bertie Ahern, the Prime Minister of Ireland.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) continues his bus tour through Iowa with a 1:00 pm ET town hall meeting at the Pipac Center in Cedar Falls, IA. He then moves the operation to New Hampshire for a 7:00 pm ET roundtable on law enforcement and first response at the Nashua Fire House in Nashua, NH. He will remain in the Granite State throughout the weekend.

Also in New Hampshire today, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) pays a 2:30 pm ET visit to residents of the Earl M Bourdon Centre in Claremont, NH, followed by a 6:30 pm ET town hall forum at Keene High School in Keene, NH.

Sen. Clinton heads to Texas for some Lone Star State fundraising.

Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) gives a 7:00 pm ET address for the Macomb County GOP Lincoln Day Dinner at the Best Western Sterling Inn in Sterling Heights, MI.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) talks to media at 5:30 pm ET before delivering the 9:30 pm ET keynote address to the Peoria GOP Lincoln Dinner at the Pere Marquette Hotel in Peoria, IL.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) delivers a 2:30 pm ET keynote address to the 25th annual United States Hispanic Leadership Institute Conference at the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers in Chicago, IL. Fluent in Spanish, Dodd will do a bilingual presser after his speech, per the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet.

Be sure to tune into "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday as Sens. Leahy (D-VT) and Cornyn (R-TX) go head to head over the political fallout from the US Attorneys firings, the Iraq votes this week, and much more.

Please see below for our look at the political goings on this weekend.

Politics of prosecutorial independence:
"A second Senate Republican has suggested that Attorney General Alberto Gonzales should leave his post because of the way the Justice Department handled the firings last year of eight federal prosecutors," writes USA Today's Kiely and Johnson. LINK

"'For the Justice Department to be effective before the U.S. Senate, it would be helpful' if Gonzales resigned," said Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR).

"In the hot seat -- mounting pressure on Karl Rove and the Attorney General," said ABC News' Robin Roberts in the headlines on "Good Morning America."

". . .more and more Rove himself is at the center of the controversy," reported ABC News' Pierre Thomas on the latest released emails from DOJ.

"He's in the fight of his life," said ABC News' George Stephanopoulos about Attorney General Gonzales.

"What will it take to get all the Republicans supporting the White House again," asked Stephanopoulos. "According to all of my reporting, I don't think that is going to happen until Alberto Gonzales resigns," he answered.

On CBS' "Early Show," Democratic strategist Mike Feldman Noted that even if Gonzales did step down, President Bush will have a possible battle getting a new Attorney General confirmed with a Democratically controlled Congress.

Speaking to the concern over the firing of federal prosecutors on NBC's "Today" show, Tim Russert said it was "dead serious," and advised -- "watch for the 2008 Senate re-election class" for more calls for the removal of Gonzales.

ABC News' Jan Crawford Greenburg was first to report the Karl Rove emails that show his more central involvement in the situation. The White House maintains that the emails are (mostly) consistent with their earlier statements. LINK

ABC News' Jon Garcia reports on Rove's comments yesterday while speaking at Troy University where he said, "I just ask the American people and ask Congress to look fairly and carefully at what's being said and done now." LINK

Watch the video here courtesy of Troy: LINK

The New York Times excerpts the Rove e-mails and ponders the particulars of just how involved the President and his aide were: "The White House has said Mr. Rove passed on complaints to the White House counsel's office, and perhaps to Mr. Bush, about prosecutors' failure to investigate voter fraud cases. He also pushed for the appointment of a former aide as the United States attorney in Arkansas, which outraged local officials and the state's senators because the prosecutor, J. Timothy Griffin, had limited experience." LINK

Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times examines the man who may be holding the pink slips, Fred Fielding. "In bringing Mr. Fielding back to the West Wing this year, Mr. Bush turned to the kind of consummate Washington insider he disdained when he first came to town, a Republican who remained prominent in the capital as presidents of both parties have come and gone." LINK

Politics of Iraq:
The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman and Shailagh Murray report that Speaker Pelosi "still lacks" the 218 votes she needs to pass the Iraq bill next week, aides said, but they "insist she has the momentum." Pelosi met with Rep. Jessie Jackson, Jr., on Wednesday to appeal for his support. "And major events Monday to mark the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq could add pressure on lawmakers to find a way out" of the Iraq conflict. LINK

"Given Republican opposition, House Democrats can afford few defections next week and unity will again be crucial. In a nod to moderates, the committee added language committing Congress to 'fully the support of needs' of U.S. troops overseas. But the greater test could be holding onto liberal members who want a faster, more certain withdrawal," reports the Wall Street Journal's David Rogers on the House Appropriations bill for war funding.