Pun and (War) Games

Sept. 11, 2007 — -- We all knew yesterday would mark a turning point in the politics of the Iraq war -- and this is no time to envy the Republicans. But all it took was a newspaper ad (and one particularly poor pun) to make Democrats squirm, at the very time the party needs unity the most.

Republicans' rallying point actually had little to do with the long-awaited report to Congress by Gen. David Petraeus. Moveon.org's ad in yesterday's New York Times was meant to help Democrats make a case against Petraeus' recommendations, but the play on his name ("General Betray Us?") backfired by letting Republicans take the offensive -- and they unloaded in unison.

The ad allowed White House allies to "change the subject from the progress in Iraq to the rhetoric used by war opponents," ABC's Jake Tapper reports. "By the end of the day, 30 Republican senators and Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., had written to the Democratic Senate Leader, asking him to 'join us in making it clear that you do not share the views of Moveon.org, and that you will not join Moveon.org in attacking the character of this fine officer,' and House Republicans had introduced a resolution condemning the ad."

A day that many Republicans on Capitol Hill dreaded went better than the GOP could have planned, as Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker more than held their own. "As the day unfolded, Congressional Republicans seemed increasingly pleased by the course of the events, saying that Democrats seemed unable to poke many holes in the testimony," writes The New York Times' Carl Hulse. "To them it was a welcome respite from weeks of party division over the war, not to mention days of turmoil over the personal conduct of Senator Larry E. Craig."

Petraeus' testimony makes it likely that the next president will inherit a situation where more than 100,000 US troops will remain in Iraq in January 2009, ABC's George Stephanopoulos said on "Good Morning America." "He did what the president needed him to do," Stephanopoulos said. "He bought time."

Writes Dana Milbank of The Washington Post: "Though trying to punt until March a decision about major troop reductions, he leavened his remarks with soothing phrases such as 'I have recommended a drawdown of the surge forces from Iraq' and 'Force reductions will continue beyond the pre-surge levels.' "

Do not mistake a news cycle or two -- or the impact of any single ad, as juvenile as Moveon.org's was -- for a tectonic political shift. The attacks made the GOP feel good for the day, but the substance of Petraeus' recommendations mean we'll probably be back here again in March -- six months closer to the election -- with the Republicans perhaps even more conflicted over whether to continue to support the war.

But the Moveon.org ad and its fallout provide a stark reminder of the influence of the anti-war left, which remains -- more than Republicans -- the biggest threat to Democratic unity on the war. "The bottom line seemed clear: Majority Democrats haven't coalesced around a single option to brandish against the White House's conduct of the war," writes Time's Mark Thompson. "In the wake of Monday's hearing -- and a pair slated before the Senate on Tuesday -- it appears likely that there will be no major change in U.S. policy in Iraq until at least next spring."

"The Iraq war now moves into a phase where the battlefield calculus is likely to matter far less than what happens in Washington," writes the Chicago Tribune's Michael Tackett. "But while the Democrats might believe they have the stronger argument, they also face the tougher decision of whether to vote for funding for a strategy that they have publicly rejected."

The '08 reactions broke down on generally predictable party lines, and much of the field gets a crack at Petraeus and Crocker in today's Senate hearings.

"Democrats mirrored the views of their base by joining hands in unified opposition to the Petraeus/Crocker analysis," write Politico's Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin. "For Republicans, some of whom had been sidling ever so slightly away from Bush on Iraq, the hint of even incremental progress was occasion to full-throatedly support the surge -- a policy that continues to enjoy strong support among the GOP voters most likely to turn out for next year's primaries and caucuses."

Today is Tuesday, Sept. 11, the first time the day and date have matched up like this since 2001. And the symbolism of the day will run through the presidential campaigns: The candidates are fanning out to remembrances and ceremonies. No one will be more visible, of course, than former mayor Rudolph Giuliani, R-N.Y.

Giuliani is viewed by Republicans as a hero of 9/11, "but those impressions have not translated into a substantial advantage over his party's other presidential candidates when it comes to who can best fight terrorism," per a New York Times/CBS poll. "61 percent of Republican voters said Mr. Giuliani would do about the same job as his rivals for the nomination in combating the threat from terrorism; Mr. Giuliani has made keeping the United States 'on offense' against terrorism a centerpiece of his campaign," write the Times' Marc Santora and Dalia Sussman. "And he still faces a formidable challenge in winning over conservative voters who are leery of his positions on some social issues, like abortion and same-sex marriage."