THE NOTE: Rudy Set for Conservative Slam

October 19, 2007 — -- This (slightly) reshaped Republican race sure is getting fun, isn't it? It figures to be a rough day for former mayor Rudolph Giuliani, R-N.Y. (not even factoring in the end of the Torre era at Yankee Stadium): Rudy's rivals are ready to pounce on the unlikely GOP frontrunner, in front of a crowd that's hardly inclined to defend the former mayor.

Former governor Mitt Romney, R-Mass., is preparing the sharpest series of lines for the "Values Voters Summit," as he makes a play to win the conference straw poll. "We're not going to beat Hillary Clinton by acting like Hillary Clinton," he plans to say in his speech tonight, ABC's Jake Tapper reports. The line will be "interpreted as aimed at the former New York mayor, who has a liberal history on many social issues such as abortion and immigration," Tapper writes.

Add to that a newly aggressive former senator Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., an eager-to-get-back-in-the-fray Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and a valediction from Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan. (who bids farewell to the race this afternoon), and the 2,300-strong crowd will be prepped to face down evil itself by the time Giuliani takes the stage tomorrow.

But when social conservative leaders meet after the speechifying is done, they still appear unlikely to unite behind any Republican candidate. "Today, thousands of Christian conservatives will gather in Washington to confront the fact that none of the candidates has won them over," Michael Shear and Perry Bacon Jr. write in The Washington Post. The conference "will highlight the uncertainty among activists and the sense of urgency among the candidates."

"Several influential Christian conservative leaders said it was unlikely, even after the conference, that they would be able to coalesce around a single candidate as they had once hoped to do," Michael Luo and Julie Bosman write in The New York Times. "That raises anew the prospect that the movement's ability to shape the outcome of the primaries could be seriously diminished." Says Gary Bauer: "My guess is things will not be that much more clarified at the end of the weekend."

Jill Lawrence writes in USA Today, "Somebody's got to win the presidential straw poll this weekend at a gathering of Christian conservative luminaries and activists. The question is whether it will be 'undecided' or an actual candidate." The buzz on the eve of the conference? "Grumbling, ambivalence and talk of bolting to a third party," Lawrence writes.

Rudy can't love the attacks - - and don't expect an embrace or an assist from the crowd -- but this is very welcome news to Giuliani, who leads comfortably in national polls in spite of views that place him far from social-conservative dogma. His real fear isn't seeing his positions highlighted - - it's one candidate emerging as the champion of a movement that's looking for a leader.

Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, believes that Giuliani "will have won by showing up, even if most in the room are still unlikely to support him," per the Times' Luo and Bosman. Says Perkins: "He's dehorned by coming," Mr. Perkins said.

Giuliani still looks stronger than he did a few months ago, despite widespread predictions of his demise. All the attention he's getting makes Giuliani ABC's "Buzz Maker of the Week."

Among the Democrats, here's what you missed in the past 24 hours if you were busy trying to negotiate Joe Torre a new contract. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., says Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., acts like she won. Former senator John Edwards, D-N.C., says Clinton can't win.

And Clinton's strategist says she already won ( hypothetically; against Giuliani; in 2000; in New York).

But before we get to that, Clinton is facing what looks likely to turn into another fundraising scandal. The Los Angeles Times' Peter Nicholas and Tom Hamburger found a wave of generous donations from some of the poorest residents of Chinese-American neighborhoods in New York City. "Dishwashers, waiters and others whose jobs and dilapidated home addresses seem to make them unpromising targets for political fundraisers are pouring $1,000 and $2,000 contributions into Clinton's campaign treasury," they write.

"Many of Clinton's Chinatown donors said they had contributed because leaders in neighborhood associations told them to. In some cases, donors said they felt pressure to give," Nicholas and Hamburger continue. Of 150 donors the newspaper identified as having sent checks after fundraising events geared to the Chinese community, "one-third of those donors could not be found using property, telephone or business records. Most have not registered to vote, according to public records."

The Clinton camp is trying to get in front of the story -- but this is going to be tough to explain away in the wake of Norman Hsu. "In this instance, our own compliance process flagged a number of questionable donations and took the appropriate steps to be sure they were legally given," spokesman Howard Wolfson told the LA Times.

Edwards, boasting the endorsement of another SEIU local (in close-to-New Hampshire Massachusetts), today speaks in California to lay out his electability argument. "I think the most electable candidate is the one with the best ideas who can go to every corner of America and tell the truth about how badly Washington is broken," Edwards plans to say, per excerpts provided to The Note. "If we have a nominee offering a bold vision of real change who can make the case for that vision in every corner of America, we will Congressional races across America, in red states and blue states, on the coasts, in the South, the Southwest, the Northwest and the Midwest."

Clinton strategist Mark Penn was looking past the Democratic primary when he sat down with reporters for a Christian Science Monitor breakfast yesterday. Citing (and perhaps exaggerating) polling from the 2000 Senate campaign that never was to be, Penn said, "We have gone through a cycle with Giuliani," Politico's Ben Smith reports. Penn cited internal polling showing that as many as 24 percent of Republican women would support Clinton in a general election "because of the emotional element of having a woman nominee."

ABC polling director Gary Langer tosses some cold water on Penn's heated analysis. "In a head-to-head matchup against Rudy Giuliani in the latest ABC/Post poll, Clinton attracts 11 percent of Republican women --