THE NOTE: Rudy and Mitt's Nasty Fight

Nov. 26, 2007 — -- The Democrats are easy to figure out. A fresh surrogate is hitting the trail (Oprah), a fresh fight has broken out (started by Sen. Hillary Clinton), and there's a fresh spring in Sen. Barack Obama's step (and a good reason for it being there -- must be fun for him to be setting the expectations frame for a change).

Yet in the scattershot, up-for-grabs GOP race for the nomination, what we know is that:

Sen. John McCain's Iraq dividend . . .

. . . is greater than . . . the number of stories that will mention both Willie Horton and Daniel T. Tavares Jr. (despite Rudy Giuliani's best efforts) . . .

. . . which is greater than . . . the number of stories that will mention both Bernie Kerik and Judge Kathe M. Tuttman (despite Mitt Romney's best efforts) . . .

. . .which is much greater than . . . the number of votes former senator Fred Thompson will get by attacking Fox News . . .

. . . which is less than . . . the number of enemies former governor Mike Huckabee has now that he's a full-blown contender . . .

. . . which is greater than . . . the quotient of genuine affection that will be shared between President Bush and former Vice President Al Gore in the Oval Office on Monday afternoon. (Donna Brazile's take on the big meeting: "President Bush has a better chance pulling the Shia backed government with the Sunni minority that defrosting his relationship with Gore.") . . .

. . . all of which is far less than . . . the sum Rep. Ron Paul will raise this quarter (and that's not even counting bunny money from his newest endorser -- thanks, Tucker.)

None of which might matter in the end. But just as the Democrats have made the campaign personal, so have the Republicans. Plenty of fights to go around -- Thompson alone is taking on Huckabee, R-Ark., Giuliani, R-N.Y., and Romney, R-Mass. -- in addition to Fox News -- and he's supposed to be the low-energy guy, remember?

But the main event in advance of Wednesday's GOP debate in Florida features Rudy and Romney, in the New Hampshire-centered battle of two blue-state one-time moderates who really, truly don't like each other. (Want to be sure? Both men used the H-word in describing their opponents on Sunday.)

Rudy's camp: Romney is a Hillary-mimicking "mediocre one-term governor" who appointed a bad judge (who made a bad decision at an inconvenient time) and saw the murder rate rise in his state (is there a worse Rudy insult?).

Romney's camp: Rudy is a Hillary-mimicking liberal poll-trailer with a messy personal life and a "nasty side" (and we welcome that phrase to our exalted political discourse, where it shall remain for at least the remainder of the Republican race).

See if you can sense the deep, abiding affection: "He throws stones at people," Giuliani tells Politico's Jonathan Martin. "And then on that issue he usually has a worse record than whoever he's throwing stones at." Rudy says it's time to "take the mask off and take a look at what kind of governor was he."

This could well be the battle that determines the nomination -- not that anything in the GOP race is falling in line according to plan. The Washington Post's Dan Balz sees the Republican race having "taken on the feel of a five-ring circus." "The race for the Republican presidential nomination took a sharply negative turn here Sunday as the two candidates traded accusations about taxes, crime, immigration, abortion and ethical standards," Balz writes.

Another consequence of this fight: Rudy has clearly put New Hampshire on his map. After months of his staffers telling the press that he can tank in the early states but still win big by sweeping on Feb. 5, Giuliani tells Balz: "I'd rather not do it that way. That would create ulcers for my entire staff and for me."

He's raising his own stakes in the Granite State -- and there's no more saying New Hampshire doesn't really matter. "Mr. Giuliani now appears to be fully competing in the Jan. 8 primary here," Michael Cooper and Michael Luo write in The New York Times. "That was evident in the weekend bus tour, the television advertisements he has been running locally and his new willingness to directly engage Mr. Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, who has long led in the polls here."

If this fight assures some mutual destruction, McCain, R-Ariz., would love to be there to pick up the independent pieces. He's up with a new ad TV ad in New Hampshire on Monday, highlighting areas where he's gone against the grain, per ABC's Bret Hovell: "I might not like the business as usual crowd in Washington," McCain says in the ad. "But I love America. I love her enough to make some people angry."

Back from Thanksgiving in Iraq, McCain told ABC's George Stephanopoulos on Sunday that he's proud that the strategy he long advocated seems to be working. "Success is significant, and anybody who thinks that it isn't does not know the facts on the ground," McCain said on "This Week." "I'll be glad to acknowledge success if this continues in reduction, but we've still got a long way to go."

Yet for one more sign of where things stand inside the GOP, another exodus suggests a wise man who sees where things are headed. Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., becomes the latest veteran GOPer to call it quits. Lott "will announce at noon today that he will resign his seat by the end of the year, a shocking move sources said was precipitated by a desire to spend more time with his family and a general fatigue of Congress," Roll Call's Erin Billings writes.

So while the Republicans lose a legend, the Democrats are about to get . . . Oprah! Obama's campaign announced Monday that it will be spinning the good Ms. Winfrey through New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina Dec. 8 and 9, with this line in the press release sure to draw insane crowds: "All events will be free and open to the public." (Will Oprah take Bill Clinton's crown as surrogate-of-the-cycle?)

Former Iowa governor (and overly enthusiastic Clinton supporter) Tom Vilsack isn't worried about O's army: He told the Washington Times' Christina Bellantoni that Iowa has the second-largest population of working parents in the country, meaning Oprah's Iowa audience may not be what it is elsewhere. "I'm not sure who watches her. Maybe young moms, maybe people who are retired. But we have the support of most retired Democrats," Vilsack said.

Obama, D-Ill., will be featured on ABC's "Nightline" on Monday, and he engages in some expectations-setting with Terry Moran. "Certainly [I] would suggest that the overwhelming favorite who has been touted as inevitable over the last 6 months better win Iowa. Don't you think?" Obama says with a laugh. "All I know is you guys have been measuring the curtains for a while. . . . You telling me she can get away with not winning Iowa?" (More laughter.)