THE NOTE: Southern Discomfort

Jan. 18, 2008 -- So much for Southern charm.

A typically harsh and dirty campaign in South Carolina is shaping up as a critical test for the Republican presidential field, with Saturday's primary testing campaign mettle -- as well as candidates' stomach for attacks -- and likely to finally bring some order to the Republican field.

Turns out there were as many tickets out of Iowa as there were passengers on the train. New Hampshire and Michigan then showed us what we knew already: That we don't know what Republicans want, since they don't know themselves.

Saturday's South Carolina primary will shake things up. It has turned former governor Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., and former senator Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., into harsh enemies, since only one can emerge as son of the South.

It gives Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the chance to overcome his demons from 2000 -- and he's intent on reacting (and, perhaps, overreacting) to attacks this time. Former governor Mitt Romney, R-Mass., is so worried about the Palmetto State that he left town two days early -- the better to manage the true indicator against which all candidates are judged: expectations.

It's why -- while Bob Johnson and Chris Matthews were apologizing, Barack Obama was celebrating, John Edwards was reintroducing, and reporters were trying to figure out what it is that Ron Kaufman is doing for Romney's campaign -- South Carolina is meaner than ever.

The latest poll spells out the stakes: It's McCain 27, Huckabee 25, Romney 15, Thompson 13 -- a finish that would surely doom Thompson if it holds. "Almost 1 in 10 likely voters said they were still undecided, and one-third of those who did express support for candidates said they might change their minds in the final hours," McClatchy's Stephen Thomma writes. "The biggest bloc of undecided voters are evangelical Christians."

But who can guess the outcome, what with fake Christmas cards, scurrilous fliers, shady phone calls, and whispering campaigns serving up hardball politics with them grits. "The Palmetto State is awash in stealth e-mail attacks, fake polling calls and other dirty tricks reminiscent of the scurrilous rumors that scuttled John McCain's candidacy in 2000," Bloomberg's Heidi Przybyla and Edwin Chen write.

"With the Republican race more open than ever, South Carolina is a magnet for third-party groups uninhibited by campaign-finance limits and eager to sling mud."

"The political gutter doesn't get much muddier or deeper than it does in the mannerly Palmetto State, and the sludge-slinging is escalating just before the nation's first-in-the-South GOP presidential primary on Saturday," Lisa Anderson writes in the Chicago Tribune.

Every campaign likes to cry foul when attacked -- often through the media -- but blizzards limit visibility. "The effect of all these 'dirty tricks' is difficult to ascertain because there are so many candidates," ABC's Jake Tapper writes. Said Romney adviser Warren Tompkins: "It's been a tightrope for all of us to walk."

And walking the South Carolina way often involves a fair bit of pandering. Time's Michael Scherer notices a new McCain: "Up in New Hampshire, John McCain ran hard on two issues, strong national security and limited government spending," he writes.

"Down here, he mentions a few more: His 24 year opposition to abortion, the scourge of Internet child pornography, and his determination to nominate judges who 'strictly interpret the constitution and do not legislate from the bench.' "

"Once the outsider, McCain is now the insider in South Carolina," Politico's David Paul Kuhn writes. "After months of campaigning as the insurgent -- a role he relishes and one that aided his comeback in New Hampshire -- McCain now finds himself as the closest thing to the state's establishment candidate."

Maybe it's the air down there that's got Huckabee suddenly -- and without prompting -- talking about the Confederate flag, as sizzling a hot button as ever, even though said flag no longer flies over the state capitol. "If somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag we'd tell them where to put the pole," Huckabee said, ABC's Kevin Chupka reports.

(That's is one way to avoid the radio ads that attack McCain and Romney on the flag issue, as Stephen Dinan reports in the Washington Times.)

The big complicating factor: The Christian right is torn. "Evangelicals have an opportunity Saturday to remind party leaders about their record as kingmakers," Louise Roug writes in the Los Angeles Times.

"But conservative leaders have turned against each other in a split that may further undermine the political power of evangelicals who, with the decline of the once-formidable Christian Coalition of America and other groups, have lost influence within the GOP."

No candidate faces bigger stakes than Thompson, who's hoping to make up for lost campaign ground. "Other candidates have much to gain or lose here, but none more than the man whose candidacy has been one of the campaign's biggest puzzles," Dan Balz and Perry Bacon Jr. write in The Washington Post.

"Thompson advisers see the three biggest strands of the Republican coalition -- economic, social and national security conservatives -- divided among three candidates: Romney, Huckabee and McCain. Thompson, they argue, still has the capacity to unite all three, but only by showing that in South Carolina."

One big obstacle, per Beliefnet.com's Dan Gilgoff: "As Thompson continues to bank on strong support from religious conservatives for a top three finish here, he has nonetheless remained reticent about his own faith and is visibly less excited speaking about socially conservative causes like stopping abortion and gay marriage than about terrorism, government spending, or illegal immigration. That reticence and enthusiasm gap could wind up costing him dearly in the Palmetto State."

Romney chose to flee town, with a Las Vegas gamble. "It speaks to a shift in strategy as Mr. Romney seeks a way to build on his victory and to a recognition that he probably could not win here" in South Carolina, Adam Nagourney and Michael Luo report in The New York Times.

"It may have also served to lower expectations for him here, even as he continued to advertise in the final hours and readied a get-out-the-vote effort."

And here's another reason to like what Nevada has to offer: "His Mormonism is arguably an asset in Nevada, a state Mormons founded, which has a significant population of Mormons and whose voters, of whatever faith, have always seemed comfortable electing Mormons."

Democrats have another few days before they turn their full attention to South Carolina, and their big Saturday contest comes in Nevada. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is up 41-32 over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in the latest poll.

Thursday brought a big victory to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. (and disappointment to Camp Clinton). "U.S. District Judge James Mahan said political parties have the freedom to set up their own guidelines for caucuses if they do not discriminate against voters based on race, gender or religion," Adrienne Packer writes in the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

The Las Vegas Sun's J. Patrick Coolican catalogues the Democrats' Nevada tactics -- and sees them getting smart with hard-hitting ads, savvy use of the blogosphere, and tough talk all around.

"After wearing helmets while riding in tanks and being for things before being against them, the party of the late response and the lame attack ad has learned how to do politics this election," Coolican writes.

The failed lawsuit is inspiration for one of the ads, a Spanish-language number being run by Unite Here, which represents the Obama-backing culinary workers. "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people. Hillary Clinton's supporters went to court to stop working people from being able to vote this Saturday -- that is an embarrassment," the ad says, per ABC's Kate Snow and Eloise Harper.

Obama's rivals want to embarrass him over the ads. Per the Washington Times' Christina Bellantoni, Obama was harshly critical of 527 groups supporting Edwards in Iowa, but now -- not so much.

Said Clinton spokesman Phil Singer: "In Nevada, he's looking the other way as they falsely attack his opponents."

Edwards is weighing in as well: "I hope Senator Obama will first denounce the ad and second call for it to be stopped and stopped immediately," he said, Anjeanette Damon reports for the Reno Gazette-Journal.

Obama is starting to hit back -- and hard. Thursday night in Las Vegas, "Obama brought up, in almost comic [style], Clinton's criticisms over his recent debate answers, the bankruptcy bill, Yucca Mountain, Social Security, and lobbyists," ABC's Sunlen Miller reports. "He presented himself, by contrast as the one who is the straight shooter, and Clinton as a candidate who will say anything to get elected."

Obama has a different memory of that Tuesday night debate with all those pleasantries, Jeff Zeleny reports in The New York Times. Referring to a bankruptcy bill, he said, "She was asked about it by Tim Russert and she said, 'Oh I voted for it but I'm glad to see that it didn't pass.' . . . What does that mean? No seriously what does that mean? . . . People don't say what they mean. You know that it's true."

Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., is helping Obama hit back, too. Kerry "defended Obama's record on the nuclear repository project at Yucca Mountain, which Obama opposes," the Las Vegas Sun's Coolican reports. "Clinton's attacks on Obama, saying he's aligned with supporters who favor the dump, are disingenuous, Kerry said."

Said Kerry: "It's the kind of politics I expect from the other party, not ours."

If the Nevada caucuses turn on local issues, Clinton would appear to have the edge -- at least if being on the offensive has anything to do with it. There's Yucca Mountain, and there's also gambling, where the Clinton campaign is throwing old Obama quotes back at him, Peter Wallsten and Peter Nicholas write in the Los Angeles Times.

"Barack Obama has warned about the dangers of gambling -- that it carries a 'moral and social cost' that could "devastate" poor communities," Wallsten and Nicholas write. Clinton, meanwhile, has "embraced the gambling industry and its executives, and her campaign has used Obama's past statements in an effort to turn casino workers and other Nevada voters against him."

The Reno Gazette-Journal endorses Obama, writing that he "embodies the political and ideological perspectives that the party projects." The paper's GOP endorsement goes to Romney, "the best candidate -- and the one who would give the party its strongest chance in the fall."

The Las Vegas Sun is backing Clinton, citing experience: "The Democratic nominee will need to be the kind of individual who has been through grueling campaigns and has the mettle not only to stand up to the Republican nominee's hardball tactics but also to deliver a message of positive change that will take this country forward again," the editorial reads.

"Clinton has a long and substantial record of leadership fighting on behalf of working Americans and children, and it is this experience and her passion for creating a better country that would serve this nation so well."

Then there's Bill -- again in the news for all the wrong reasons. "Some Clinton advisers say the campaign is trying to rein him in somewhat, so that his outbursts become less of a factor to reporters, but his flashes of anger only seem to be growing," Patrick Healy writes in The New York Times.

"Aides and advisers to both Clintons say he tends to explode in anger more often and more fiercely than his wife, whose temper is usually described as that of a slow-burn and clipped-tone variety."

The Washington Post's Peter Baker recalls that Monday brings a not-so-special 10th anniversary of a certain scandal that rocked a presidency. "As Clinton travels the country campaigning for his wife with characteristic intensity, he is fighting not only to promote Hillary Rodham Clinton's candidacy but also to set the record straight on the two terms he spent in the White House," Baker writes.

"And if some cast the Democratic nomination battle as a test of whether the party wants to turn the page on the Clinton years, then he is determined to win the referendum."

Try to find the understatement: "Advisers to the senator from New York are acutely aware of Monday's anniversary, coming at the height of the primary season, and hope it will pass with little notice," Baker writes.

Obama's pastor, for one, isn't afraid to let the M-word escape his lips. Per the New York Post's Maggie Haberman (in remarks Obama quickly distanced himself from): "The pastor whom Barack Obama calls his spiritual guide and mentor took a stunning shot at Bill Clinton this week, saying the ex-president did the same thing to black voters that 'he did to Monica Lewinsky.' "

It's a final full day of campaigning in South Carolina and Nevada on Friday. Check out all of the candidate's schedules in The Note's "Sneak Peek."

Also in the news:

Economy, economy, economy . . . Look for Washington wrangling to come back to the trail, with Congress and the White House working on a stimulus package.

When the Democrats do get down to South Carolina, they'll find a race where Obama has an early edge, up 40-31-13 over Clinton and Edwards in the new Mason-Dixon poll.