THE NOTE: Minding Carolina

CHARLESTON, S.C.<br>Jan. 21, 2008 -- There's something in the chilly air that speaks well for underdogs (and no, we're not talking only about the "Eli for President" chants that are set to echo around the Meadowlands).

For the fourth straight Monday, we feel safe calling this the biggest week in Sen. Barack Obama's political existence. It's a measure of the man and the race that we don't know which Barack Obama we'll see (but we'll see him in earnest Monday night in Myrtle Beach -- it must be Monday if it's time for another debate).

Now that South Carolina's on his mind, will we see Boston Barack -- the soaring orator he's capable of being, or Boring Barack -- the flat speechifier who falls too quickly into lofty slogans and meandering Senate-ese? Will he be a comfortable, accessible, smooth presence, or will he stop taking questions in an over-abundance of caution?

In short -- will he be on offense or defense? We'll know part of the answer on Monday, and the early indication is . . . a little of both. This is defense as offense, going straight at a Democratic icon, in an interview with ABC's Robin Roberts on "Good Morning America":

"The former president, who I think all of us have a lot of regard for, has taken his advocacy on behalf of his wife to a level that I think is pretty troubling," said Obama, D-Ill. "He continues to make statements that are not supported by the facts. . . . This has become a habit, and one of the things that we're gonna have to do is to directly confront Bill Clinton when he's making statements that are not factually accurate."

Specifically referring to the way Clinton characterized his comments on Ronald Reagan -- the former president paraphrased Obama as saying "Republicans have had all the good ideas" -- Obama responded: "He was making it up and completely mischaracterizing my statement." And (wasn't John Edwards crushed by the end of this sentence?): "We've got a formidable opponent -- actually, two formidable opponents at this point, between Senator Clinton and, and President Clinton."

In calling for "honesty and candor" in the race, does Obama revive maybe a memory or two of a scandal that broke 10 years ago Monday, where President Clinton and honesty seemed to part ways?

Obama's playbook from the last round didn't work; after Iowa, even while he picked up traditional, tactical victories -- endorsements by unions and senators and governors -- he was losing the message game. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and her skilled team of surrogates kept him off-balance, and he arrives in South Carolina riding a losing streak.

Camp Clinton says that the former president is a "huge asset," and they plan to continue to -- accurately -- speak about Obama's record. Says spokesman Howard Wolfson (and notice the reappearance of the W word): "We understand Senator Obama is frustrated by his loss in Nevada, but facts are facts. . . . Of course Senator Clinton and Senator Obama are the candidates on the ballot, and she is winning because she is giving voice to the Americans who will provide real solutions to the challenges they face in the daily lives."

But there's a new backdrop for these next six days: race. Nothing that happens in the Democratic race in South Carolina will stray far from that issue and its many themes in a state where half or more Democratic primary voters are expected to be black.

"Mr. Obama has strived to run a race-neutral campaign," Jeff Zeleny writes in The New York Times. "Yet this week, as the campaign converges on South Carolina, a new test is at hand for Mr. Obama: Can he draw significant support from African-Americans while maintaining the appeal of a candidate who seeks to transcend race?"

Obama seemed in his element on Sunday, Nevada's disappointment a distant memory as he spoke at Martin Luther King Jr.'s former church in Atlanta (one day before MLK Day).

He called for a new brand of politics: "It is the poison that we must purge from our politics; the wall that we must tear down before the hour grows too late," Obama said, per ABC's Sunlen Miller.

"Emphasizing hope over fear and unity over division, Obama's 45-minute message echoed the remarks he made before the Democratic National Convention in 2004, his political star turn, which combined a message of personal responsibility and calls for creating 'one America' out of bitterly divided red and blue states," Joseph Williams writes in The Boston Globe. "Yet the speech also seemed designed to bridge any lingering doubts about him among African-Americans."

This is the first real look we're getting at Barack Obama, black candidate. "Too young to have participated in the civil rights movement King led, Obama has delicately balanced race throughout his campaign, not wanting to be labeled as just a black candidate," John McCormick writes in the Chicago Tribune. "But with blacks representing about half of those expected to participate in Saturday's Democratic primary in South Carolina, Obama will aggressively court the group this week."

It's silly to label anything as a "must-win," since clearly Clinton and Obama both have the resources to continue through Feb. 5 no matter what.

But South Carolina is the closest thing Obama's going to get to a home game before Super Tuesday, the result of "a shift in support that started with his victory in Iowa on Jan. 3," Krissah Williams writes in The Washington Post. "Obama is now winning 60 percent of the black vote, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll."

Taking on President Clinton may be a well-timed message -- not just for Obama boosters, not just in South Carolina, and not just on the anniversary of Monica Madness.

Newsweek's Jonathan Alter reports on big-name Democrats urging the former president to butt out: "In recent weeks, Sen. Edward Kennedy and Rep. Rahm Emanuel, both currently neutral in the Democratic contest, have told their old friend heatedly on the phone that he needs to change his tone and stop attacking Sen. Barack Obama, according to two sources familiar with the conversations who asked for anonymity because of their sensitive nature," Alter reports.

"The Clinton camp now fears that Kennedy is leaning toward Obama." Says Clinton spokesman Matt McKenna: "History will judge the impact on the Clinton legacy, not daily or weekly political reporters." True enough, but is this a chapter Bill Clinton needs -- or wants -- added to his already thick biography? (Only if she wins the presidency, we suppose.)

The Clintons retain their own deep, affectionate ties in the African-American community; Sen. Clinton spoke at the Abyssinian Baptist Church in Harlem on Sunday, picking up the endorsement of the Rev. Calvin Butts.

There's not enough churches go around for all these Clintons and Obamas. Chelsea Clinton and Michelle Obama chose the same church in Columbia to attend services in on Sunday. The former president will himself be on Monday where Obama was Sunday, at the Ebenezer Baptist Church pulpit in Atlanta, to commemorate MLK Day.