The Note: War Dance

April 8, 2008 -- Consider it the first of the 2008 general-election debates -- an untraditional format, reverse-moderated by Gen. David Petraeus.

To the extent that the 2008 campaign ends up being about that issue that dominated the elections of 2002, 2004, and 2006, there's no better place to start (and maybe finish) the discussion than with Petraeus.

His testimony in September framed the Iraq debate for the primaries, and on Tuesday his Senate appearances -- citing security gains, but also calling for a pause in troop draw-downs -- will shape realities and perceptions for the three senators who would be president.

"Each of the three is determined to use the spectacle to advantage, but all face political risks as well as opportunities in the back-to-back hearings before the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees," Elisabeth Bumiller writes in The New York Times.

"Over all, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama, both Democrats, are likely to criticize the costs of the war and a lack of political progress. Mr. McCain, an early supporter of the troop escalation who has acknowledged that his political fortunes are directly tied to American success in Iraq, will say that the 'surge' is working, and is likely to add that the Democrats are ignoring the gains."

Tuesday's Capitol Hill hearings provide a handy bookmark for considering the domestic politics of the Iraq war. And if you bet that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., would be the happiest to see this day arrive -- well, surely you are among those soothsayers who saw the Jayhawks pulling off an overtime thriller on Monday.

McCain gets his shot first, as the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, where Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker start their day at 9:30 am ET. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., also serves on that panel, and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., may have to wait until early (or late) evening for his shot, as a junior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

It's as if the war has come full circle as a political issue, with McCain -- the recipient, for good or ill, of the Bush legacy on the war -- the most eager to set up Iraq as an issue for this fall. It's early, but just maybe he's starting to get the campaign he wants on national-security issues.

Here's how: McCain's speech Monday cast premature withdrawal as the "height of irresponsibility" and "a failure of leadership." "McCain challenged Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to confront the consequences of withdrawal," Johanna Neuman writes in the Los Angeles Times.

Yet this could matter more than that: "McCain did not predict how long U.S. troops would need to stay in Iraq, saying only that he hopes to withdraw them at the earliest opportunity and that security needs 'will require that we keep a sufficient level of American forces in Iraq until security conditions' improve," Neuman writes.

"For better or worse, McCain has largely hitched his presidential ambitions to the Iraq War," ABC's Ron Claiborne reports. "McCain is gambling that he can convince the American public, most of whom now say the war was a mistake, that it is still a worthy cause that can and must be won."

But the politics in Congress have shifted in other ways in the past seven months; it's no longer enough for Petraeus to mollify critics by saying the surge is working.

Clinton (eager to change the subject this week) isn't ready to concede that point: "Let's remember what we were told about this surge a year ago: That the whole purpose of it was to give the Iraqi government space and time to do what it needed to do," Clinton told ABC's Robin Roberts on "Good Morning America." "That hasn't happened. . . . So clearly, the surge hasn't worked. . . . The point of the surge, its stated rationale, hasn't worked."

Obama is trotting out a new line -- saying McCain is endorsing a 100-year "occupation" of Iraq. He's already getting blowback from the RNC (out with a viewer's guide for the Tuesday hearings): "Replacing one dishonest attack with another is not the sort of 'new politics' voters are hoping for," spokesman Alex Conant said Tuesday morning.

But the candidates won't be the only hostile Democrats -- and they'll have the company of some frustrated Republicans.

"Unlike in September, when that news was fresh and the administration said a corner had been turned, even some of the war's strongest supporters in Congress have grown impatient and frustrated," Karen DeYoung writes in The Washington Post.

"Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, and Crocker will face many lawmakers who had expected more by now and who are wondering whether any real change will occur before the clock runs out on the Bush administration."

Democrats will seek to turn the issue against Republicans, by pointing out that while the surge has reduced violence, "it has not brought the war any closer to ending or reduced the costs of the conflict," the AP's Julie Hirschfeld Davis reports.

"With the economy eclipsing the war as voters' top worry, Democrats are putting more emphasis on the domestic and military side effects of the Iraq conflict, such as neglecting infrastructure investments at home, overstretching the military and losing sight of the al-Qaida threat."

Toss in some Iran, too: "Iran is emerging as a hot-button campaign issue, with the candidates differing sharply on what approach to take toward Tehran and its hard-line leadership," Yochi J. Dreazen and Laura Meckler write in The Wall Street Journal. "Focusing on Iran could be a double-edged sword for Sen. McCain, who is staking his campaign on his foreign-policy credentials and his belief that U.S. forces must remain in Iraq."

After the testimony is over, ABC's Terry Moran has an exclusive interview with Petraeus on Tuesday evening's "Nightline."

Clinton makes her appearance at a precarious moment for her campaign, with questions swirling about whether there's time for new strategists to put in place a new strategy. The new Quinnipiac Poll shows Clinton's Pennsylvania lead down to six points -- 50-44 -- inside the margin that will be considered an Obama victory, after her lead stuck in double-digit territory for months.

"The refurbished Clinton team faces challenges on two fronts: trying to contain fallout from union members and other blue-collar workers who are essential to her success, and seeking to persuade key supporters and donors that [Mark] Penn's removal can bring fresh energy," John Harwood and Jeff Zeleny write in The New York Times.

This quote from new strategist Geoff Garin (in words that may be themselves mark a different tone): "I don't want there to be a thermonuclear climax," Garin said. "Senator Clinton is committed to having a united Democratic Party at the end of this process. Senator Obama is committed to having a united Democratic Party at the end of this process. And we will have a united Democratic Party at the end of this process."

The first major post-Penn move was a savvy one -- working on several different levels. Pouncing on the news, Clinton became the first presidential candidate to call on President Bush to boycott the Olympic opening ceremonies, ABC's Eloise Harper reports.