The Note: The State of the Union Is Like a Wasabi Sandwich

— -- NEWS SUMMARY
Tonight at 9:01 pm ET, President Bush delivers the State of the Union address. As always, Vice President Cheney, First Lady Laura Bush, both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court, and the cabinet attend.

No word yet on who's pulled doomsday duty.

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi deliver the Democratic response.

Watch to see which Democrats get a presidential pat (or hug) on the way in. (If any . . .)

Watch to see if the White House puts anything in the speech that can compete with Social Security for lede status.

See if the axis of evil tonight (at least implicitly) will be "the status quo," "the do-nothings," and Howard Dean. (Just kidding.)

Tally applause if you want. (But you will lose count during the Iraq election section.)

Watch how often the pool director chooses Sen. Clinton as the reaction cut-away.

Look for the grudging Charlie Rangel-style forced clapping by some. (That is when the hands say "clap" but the eyes say "shrug.")

Determine which lines are for "the room," which lines are for the citizenry watching on TV, and which for the world audience.

Strain to see who is in the First Lady's box besides the pre-announced Iraqis.

Note well the new ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows President Bush going into the first State of the Union of his second term with a 50 percent job approval rating; 87 percent of Republicans give him a thumbs up, compared to just 14 percent of Democrats who agree, according to ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer. LINK

Watch to see if there are any insta-polls of repute.

And be sure to tune in to ABC News for live coverage of the President's speech and the Democratic response, broadcast in glorious High Definition beginning at 9:00 pm ET.

Peter Jennings will anchor ABC's coverage from Washington, DC, and he'll be joined by George Stephanopoulos, Terry Moran, Linda Douglass, Martha Raddatz, Jake Tapper, Mark Halperin, Cokie Roberts, George Will, and Fareed Zakaria.

Sam Donaldson in Washington, DC and Chris Cuomo in New York will anchor ABC News Now's live coverage of the President's address starting at 7:00 pm ET. ABC News Now coverage will also carry the Democratic response.

ABC News Radio will offer a one-hour special beforehand looking at the issues expected to be covered in the speech, anchored by correspondent Gil Gross, and Vic Ratner and Ann Compton will join him for live coverage and the Democratic response.

In addition, everything you could want to know about the history of the State of the Union address and the status of the President's proposals is on ABCNEWS.com. LINK

House Speaker Dennis Hastert, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and House Majority Whip Roy Blunt hold a news conference on the State of the Union at 10:00 am ET.

At 11:30 a.m., Gov. Bill Richardson, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, hosts a conference call to give the DGA's State of the Union pre-buttal.

The House Democratic Caucus holds a closed meeting at 9:00 am ET, as does the House Republican Conference.

At 9:30 am ET, the Senate convenes an executive session to consider the nomination of Attorney General-designate Alberto Gonzales.

Scott McClellan gaggles at 9:45 am ET.

The House convenes at 10:00 am ET.

Also at 10:00 am ET, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Michael Chertoff to be the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

And the Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing to look at the long term outlook for Social Security. CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Stephen Goss, chief actuary at the Social Security Administration, testify.

At noon ET, Sens. Lott, McCain, Feingold, and Schumer join Reps. Shays and Meehan to announce the introduction of the 527 Reform Act of 2005.

At 2:15 pm ET, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision; experts predict it will raise it a quarter-point to stay apace with inflation. The rate now stands at 2.25 percent.

At 2:30 pm ET, the House Select Intelligence Committee holds a hearing on threats to national security. Richard Perle, James Woolsey, and Gregory Trevorton, among others, testify.

At 4:00 pm ET, the Senate Armed Services Committee gets a closed briefing on the training of Iraqi security forces.

State of the Union: the speech:
Dan Bartlett on the morning shows and some murky, shadowy, unnamed "senior Administration official" in a large-scale background briefing yesterday did an outstanding job shaping the curtain-raisers in today's papers on message for the President.

To wit:

The New York Times' Dick Stevenson on the President's "welcoming" of ideas about how to deal with Social Security benefits as he lays out specifics only about the types of investments he'd like people to be able to make. LINK

The Washington Post's Michael Fletcher reports that Le Talk will be evenly divided between domestic and foreign policy, stressing fiscal discipline and cutting the deficit in preparation for the budget fight, and offering some detail on the Social Security -- but not too much. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten and Warren Veith describe the address as a blueprint for Republican dominance that would funnel both money and voters away from Democrats. It is the second term, after all, and time to begin thinking about legacy. LINK

Wallsten and Veith are following in the Edsall/Harris Washington Post wake from the weekend -- as reporters find out that that (evil) genius Karl Rove is supportive of policies that will be attractive to voters and fit the times.

He's like a Bond villain, but dangerously armed with a BlackBerry.

More from USA Today's Richard Benedetto. LINK

Matthew Scully, former Bush speechwriter, on the challenges of writing a speech and writing it for Bush. A New York Times must-read op-ed, says Gene Shalit. LINK

It's a very interesting and revealing look at the sausage making in the Bush White House (which we all know we rarely see), but done in a way that Andy Card (we think) would approve -- with a great emphasis on the President's abilities and talents.

On the same page, Democrat funnyman Jeff Shesol wants to put the kibosh on the opposing party's rebuttal. LINK

Roll Call's Mary Ann Akers writes that freshman Rep. Bobby Jindal is trying to rally a little political theater tonight by urging his House colleagues to dip their fingers in purple ink as a show of solidarity with Iraqi voters.

State of the Union: Bush agenda:
Don't cross Bill Frist, or he'll cut your heart out. (Take his word for it, not ours.) Robin Toner's look at the challenges the Sen./Dr./Leader faces includes other pearls of wisdom:

"He acknowledged the presidential speculation that swirls around him, saying he was not averse to it but quickly adding, 'That is not my goal.'"

". . . there is widespread anxiety in Republican circles these days, and no real consensus on how to achieve the president's domestic goals or even, perhaps, whether doing so is worth the price." LINK

New HHS chief Michael Leavitt wants big changes in Medicaid, too. Watch to see what the NGA has to say. LINK

The Washington Post's Ceci Connolly reports that Leavitt estimated that closing loopholes, tightening spending, and clamping down on "accounting gimmicks" could save Medicaid $60 billion over the next decade. LINK

Bush's new budget reportedly cuts the Amtrak subsidy, but Congress is likely to restore most of it. LINK

Chuck Raasch of Gannett News Service looks at how Iraq is shaping how people view the Bush Administration and listen to his speech, Noting that "Bush will speak to a nation that is now as divided over Iraq as anything it saw in the culture wars or economic equity debates of the post-Cold War era." LINK

State of the Union: historical perspective:
At some point tonight, the President is likely to say with anticipated great bravado, "The state of our union is X."

Every year, the Gang of 500 waits with great anticipation for these words, and, yet, a search of past moments from the Clinton and Bush years leaves us with a, uhm, strong impression that this moment isn't as momentous as we thought.

1994: "Tonight, my fellow Americans, we are summoned to answer a question as old as the republic itself, what is the state of our union? It is growing stronger but it must be stronger still."

1996: "The state of the Union is strong."

1997: "My fellow Americans, the state of our union is strong . . ."

1998: "Ladies and gentlemen, the state of our union is strong."

1999: "My fellow Americans, I stand before you tonight to report that the state of our union is strong."

2000: "My fellow Americans, the state of our union is the strongest it has ever been."

2002: " . . . (T)he state of our union has never been stronger."

2003: ". . . our union is strong."

2004: " . . . (T)he state of our union is confident and strong."

Separate question: everyone has a favorite inaugural speech line, but does anyone (besides David Frum) have a favorite State of the Union line? E-mail us with your favorites. politicalunit@abcnews.com

State of the Union: walking down memory lane:
And a blast from the SOTU past, courtesy of a loyal reader, the Feb. 9, 1985, New York Times, and reporter Sally Bedell Smith.

Please feel free to count the number of moments pregnant with pathos and meaning in this short excerpt:

"No Gain for 'Dynasty'"

"When ABC decided to delay until Thursday night its telecast of the Democratic response to President Reagan's State of the Union address on Wednesday night, some politicians said the network seemed unpatriotic in its pursuit of higher ratings. 'ABC has chosen "Dynasty" over democracy,' said Christopher J. Matthews, a senior aide to the Speaker of the House, Representative Thomas P. O'Neill Jr., Democrat of Massachusetts."

Social Security:
The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman examines how an aging population presents difficulties and demands on the federal budget and priorities, and that Social Security is just the tip of the iceberg of the problems the government faces in dealing with all this. LINK

"In just 10 years, spending on the elderly will total nearly $1.8 trillion, almost half the federal budget, according to new Brookings Institution and Congressional Budget Office projections. That is up from 29 percent in 1990 and 35 percent in 2000."

"The bulk of that growth is spending on the federal government's two largest health care programs, Medicare and Medicaid. Their combined costs are projected to more than double, to a combined total of $1.2 trillion in 2015 from $473 billion last year. Social Security spending is expected to rise to $888 billion from $492 billion in that span."

"Senate Democrats said yesterday that they have more than enough votes to block President Bush's bid to allow private accounts in Social Security, increasing pressure on the president to begin outlining a plan tonight that might offer enough compromises or incentives to win over at least a handful of Democrats," report the Washington Post's Chuck Babington and Mike Allen. LINK

(It's rare that Mike Allen has to eat New York Times dust. But he does it humbly.)

And there's more of the same from the Los Angeles Times' Warren Vieth and Richard Simon. LINK

And the Boston Globe's Michael Kranish and Rick Klein. LINK

Roll Call's Paul Kane reports that Senate Democrats from Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Florida -- where the President will visit tomorrow and Friday -- are working together on a message to counter his barnstorm.

Watch for the first big test of post-election bracketing, counter-bracketing, and counter-counter-bracketing on this presidential swing.

The Boston Globe's Charles Stein takes a closer look at the idea of linking Social Security and the stock market. LINK

USA Today surveyed 53 economists who said they support the idea of private accounts. LINK

DNC chair's race:
From the New York Times' Adam Nagourney and Anne Kornblut: "There were few Democrats in Washington who doubted that Dr. Dean, the former governor of Vermont, was on the verge of taking over the party, with the support of much, though certainly not all, of its establishment. Democrats marveled at how someone who had been viewed as a symbol of some of the excesses of the party -- Mr. McEntee described Dr. Dean as 'nuts' after he withdrew his endorsement of him in the middle of the presidential campaign -- was now on the brink of becoming a face of the opposition to President Bush." LINK

"Democrats said Dr. Dean overcame the hurdles of his failed presidential candidacy by intensely courting Democratic leaders, assuring them that he was not the liberal and undisciplined caricature that many said they saw last year. He also freely made the kind of bread-and-butter promises that have always helped politicians win elections, promising to channel at least $11 million in national Democratic money to pay salaries at the state parties, Democratic officials said."

"Dr. Dean has already shown that he may not be willing to be the traditional deferential party chairman, declaring, for example, that he would have opposed the nomination of Alberto R. Gonzales for attorney general and criticizing Senator Harry Reid, the Senate minority leader, for saying he would support Justice Antonin Scalia to be chief justice."

And warnings from Reid and Pelosi:

"I think that Governor Dean would take his lead from us,' said Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House Democratic leader."

"And Mr. Reid said: 'The Democratic chairman has a constituency of 447 people. Our constituency is much larger than that.'"

Reid is more accommodating in the Washington Post:

"Asked about a comment Dean made last weekend indicating that, as chairman, he would feel free to pressure congressional Democrats if he thought they were straying from party orthodoxy on core issues, Reid said, 'I don't think the chair of the DNC should be prohibited in any way from commenting on things that we do.'" LINK

The New York Observer simplifies the picture somewhat, saying that Hill Dems are veering right while Howard Dean moves the party structure left. LINK

And the secret of Tom Ochs's power-brokering is revealed!

In the Los Angeles Times, Ron Brownstein quotes Gerry McEntee as saying Dean needs to be very "careful." LINK

More Dean articles: LINK and LINK

The AP follows up on the dispute between Mark Brewer and the DNC over coordinated campaign funds. LINK

You haven't heard the last of this sidebar, and the DNC has not ruled out some type of legal action to compel Mr. Brewer to hand over the books.

National security:
As Michael Chertoff's confirmation hearings open, the Washington Post's John Mintz pens a fascinating, must-read story about dysfunction at the Department of Homeland Security, in which turf battles and officials inexperienced with Washington bureaucracy left serious issues like protecting infrastructure, securing hazardous chemicals on trains, tracking people and cargo at ports, and the ability of the agency's investigative arm to function, to some degree unsolved. LINK

On the other hand, compared to the predictions of back-breakin' turf wars that predated the creation of the department . . .

The cabinet: Michael Chertoff:
The Washington Post's Michael Powell curtain-raises Michael Chertoff's confirmation hearings and the questions he will face about his decisions while at the Justice Department about detaining immigrants and interrogation techniques that some say pushed the line. LINK

Mimi Hall of USA Today reports that the White House denies Chertoff advised the CIA on how to handle interrogations. LINK

The cabinet: Alberto Gonzales:
The Washington Post's Dana Milbank writes that even though Senate Democrats slammed Attorney General nominee Alberto Gonzales yesterday, they say they will not attempt to block his confirmation via 'buster. Nonetheless, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) estimated a minimum of 25 to 30 Democrats would vote "no." LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Maura Reynolds details Democrats' lines of argument as they extended their debate over Gonzales. LINK

More from the Boston Globe's hard-working Rick Klein: LINK

Bush agenda:
The Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten and Tom Hamburger wrap yesterday's meeting organized by ministers supporting President Bush, urging conservative black clergy to join white evangelicals on values activism -- and particularly to oppose same-sex marriage. LINK

2008:
Massachusetts Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly (D) has noticed Gov. Romney's PAC donations and doesn't like it: "''I wish there'd be more attention and more emphasis paid on what's happening in South Boston, where Gillette is headquartered, than what's happening in South Carolina,' Reilly said, referring to a key presidential primary state where Romney is scheduled to speak to a local county Republican Party organization later this month. '''You can't have your mind in two places.'" LINK

Back taxes for Pataki's aide? LINK How many days will the New York Post stay on this story, and what can Team Pataki do to defuse it?

Sen. Clinton is feeling much better and even found time and stop and chat with Vince Morris. LINK

Of course, now there is on the public record confusion as to whether the Clinton staff ate the same meals or different meals in Rye, so this one ain't over either. And the hotel doesn't seem to be returning calls -- yet.

Chris Jordan of Central New Jersey's Home News Tribune writes up an especially telling comment about Sen. Clinton from Mary Matalin at a Garden State stop of the James-and-Mary show. LINK

"'As the Democrats consistently do with President Bush, they mis-estimate him,' Matalin said to laughter. 'She is very smart. She's a very hard worker, she delivers a good speech, she campaigns like mad, and I think if anybody from my side underestimates her prowess, her power, her potential for the presidency, they're making a mistake.'"

Sen. Sam Brownback urged Kofi Annan to resign unless the UN acts now in Darfur. His call is getting international attention. LINK

Scot Lehigh salivates (a little) over the prospect of Kerry v. Romney in '08. LINK

Free Matt Cooper:
Peter Slevin's Washington Post profile describes U.S. Attorney Peter Fitzgerald almost as a modern-day Elliott Ness who gets "creative" with his investigations, and leads critics and advocates to debate whether he's motivated by "zeal" or "courage" in his probe of the leak of a CIA agent's name that has put journalists in the crosshairs. LINK

Politics:
The Washington Post's Column Lynch details the new role for former President Clinton, who has been appointed to head the U.N.'s tsunami reconstruction efforts. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Joe Mathews takes a look at the "natural born" clause in the Constitution -- the first step to the Schwarzenegger for President exploratory committee. LINK

Sens. McCain and Feingold and Reps. Shays and Meehan have two new allies -- Sens. Schumer and Lott -- for their 527 Reform Act, reports Roll Call's Amy Keller.

Congratulations to Eileen McMenamin -- and Sen. McCain. The former CNNer (and ABCer!!) is going up to the Hill to communicate for the Great Communicator LINK

The New York Sun's Josh Gerstein on why Steve Moore really left the Club for Growth. LINK

Opponents of abortion are turning to a new tactic: encouraging the widespread use of ultrasounds. LINK

The biggest story for the Gang of 500 goes right here at the end: The Delta shuttle will no longer keep planes on standby for extra sections . . . a sign of the times, and in some editions, the New York Times fronts it. LINK

"'I'm disappointed,' said Charlie Rose, the public television talk-show host, who is always running late for the shuttle. 'Isn't that the nature of a shuttle, that you can show up at the last minute and get a seat?'"

Howard Paster doesn't like it either. And either does The Note.