The Note: Philly Stakes

April 16, 2008 -- PHILADELPHIA -- So much has changed since last they met -- but then again things look pretty much the same.

Nearly two months since the Democrats last debated -- and nearly 12 months since their first forum -- things have come full circle in a race where the frontrunners have flipped.

The pressure once again is on Sen. Barack Obama to exceed expectations Wednesday night at 8 pm ET at Philadelphia's National Constitution Center -- and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is looking to close the deal in Pennsylvania, and look beyond.

Not that the stakes are the same; Obama's answers may be more closely watched than Clinton's, but there is only one delegate leader going into the debate, and there will only be one coming out of it.

The debate is Obama's best chance to take on questions over two controversies that have sidetracked his candidacy; his charge is to answer concerns about his views and his electability.

Clinton, D-N.Y., needs to demonstrate she's still in control of Pennsylvania -- her perilous path still intact despite distractions and obstacles of her own -- and sow the kind of serious doubts about Obama she needs to spring in the minds of superdelegates.

Yet the polls are looking more sweet than bitter for Obama, D-Ill.: The new ABC News/Washington Post national poll gives Obama an 11-point edge on the question of whom Democrats would like to see as the nominee -- and shows a spike in Clinton's negative perceptions.

"Barack Obama has knocked down one of the three tent poles of Hillary Clinton's campaign for president, surging ahead of her as the candidate Democrats see as most likely to win in November," ABC Polling Director Gary Langer writes.

"Democrats by a 2-1 margin, 62-31 percent, now see Obama as better able to win in November -- a dramatic turn from February, when Clinton held a scant 5-point edge on this measure, and more so from last fall, when she crushed her opponents on electability," Langer writes.

The battle "appears to have taken a toll on the image of Clinton, who was once seen as the favorite," Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write in The Washington Post. "In the new poll, 54 percent said they have an unfavorable view of Sen. Clinton, up from 40 percent a few days after she won the New Hampshire primary in early January. . . . In hypothetical general-election matchups, Obama holds a slim, five-point lead over McCain, while McCain is three points ahead of Clinton, which is within poll's margin of error."

She's got a narrow lead in Pennsylvania -- but that's about it. The Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll has Clinton up 46-41 in Pennsylvania, but down 40-35 in Indiana, and 47-34 in North Carolina.

"Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in two of the next three Democratic primaries, an advantage, if it holds, that would allow him to sew up the nomination," Bloomberg's Heidi Przybyla writes.

"Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid -- even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole," Janet Hook writes in the Los Angeles Times. "The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party's nomination."

Another Pennsylvania poll, from Franklin & Marshall: "Clinton clung to a lead of 46 percent to 40 percent for Obama among likely Democratic voters, with 14 percent undecided. In March, Clinton led 51 percent to 35 percent," Catherine Lucey writes in the Philadelphia Daily News. "But experts said that the survey may not fully show the impact of Obama's statements last week that small-town Americans are 'bitter' over their economic status and 'cling to guns or religion.' "

It's an 11-point margin in Gallup's daily tracking, Obama 51, Clinton 40.

To date, neither the Rev. Jeremiah Wright nor the "bitter" comment has broken Obama's stride (what can slow this guy?). (Maybe people ARE bitter -- and maybe they're not digesting the rest of what Obama said.)

From the Los Angeles Times' poll write-up: "In Pennsylvania, the flap [over Wright] seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views."

Has "bitter" bounced Obama back, too? "Who says Pennsylvanians aren't bitter, particularly when it comes to their politics?" Brett Lieberman writes in the Harrisburg Patriot-News.

"In a series of interviews with The Patriot-News this week, voters in small Pennsylvania's towns said Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was dead on when he said it is understandable if many folks like them are 'bitter.' But they hold out little hope that Obama, Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton or John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, will make their lives any better."

Is Obama untouchable? "Time after time, from the beginning of the campaign to now, the media has called Obama on a 'major' gaffe or presented his reaction to an event as a 'major problem only to figure out a week later that Obama hasn't suffered a bit and Hillary Clinton numbers have dropped back down to about 40%," blogs The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder.

As for the debate: "With limited opportunities to alter the direction of the race, Clinton must aim to take advantage of the spotlight and continue to cast doubt about Obama's electability in November," Politico's Carrie Budoff Brown writes. "Heading into the debate after some of the toughest weeks of his campaign, Obama will have to lure back voters who may grown uneasy with his candidacy."

"Although past one-on-one debates between the New York and Illinois senators have been virtual lovefests, the terrain is different this time because Clinton is running out of room," Carla Marinucci writes in the San Francisco Chronicle. "Many political observers believe she must put the pedal down hard tonight if she hopes to convince all-important superdelegates that she alone has the muscle to take the Democratic fight on to the general election."

The dust-up over the "bitter" comments "appears to have hardened the views of both candidates' supporters and stirred anxiety among many Democrats about the party's prospects in the fall," Jeff Zeleny writes in The New York Times.

"The closing week of the Democratic primary race in Pennsylvania is awash in fresh accusations of elitism and condescension. After sparring over those topics from afar, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama will come together Wednesday evening at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia for their first debate in nearly two months, which will be televised nationally on ABC."

Clinton is trying the underdog thing out for size -- and we'll see if it fits on the debate stage. "At recent campaign appearances from Aliquippa to Scranton to Philadelphia, Clinton talks about 'fighting' for working people, jabs her opponent, and describes herself as somebody who can take a punch," Thomas Fitzgerald writes in the Philadelphia Inquirer.

"While some see a risk of seeming too combative, Clinton seems comfortable in the scrappy role. Strategists believe that voters relate better to the woman trying so visibly to win their support than they did to the prohibitive front-runner earlier in the campaign."

Former Bill Clinton adviser Doug Schoen wants the kitchen sink -- for real this time. "As the underdog, Clinton's positive message will not work unless she is able to undermine Obama's candidacy," Schoen writes in a Washington Post op-ed.

"She needs to argue that his values are out of step with voters, as evidenced by his recent comments about why people are religious or seek to own guns. She also must argue that because of Obama's lack of legislative accomplishments, he is ill-equipped to achieve what he sets out to do."

But here's a problem: "She has lost trust among voters, a majority of whom now view her as dishonest," Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen write in The Washington Post. They include some tasty morsels of campaign infighting: "The Bosnia incident and the way the campaign handled it have left advisers divided over what a candidate can do after such a steep drop in trust."