The Note: Tides, Floods, and Bounces

April 23, 2008 -- And so the drama continues -- even if we may still know how this play ends.

Stop us if you've heard this one before: The frontrunner is facing fundamental questions concerning electability. The underdog is gaining momentum. The leading candidate has whiffed on an opportunity to put the challenger away (four strikes you're out?). There is one solitary candidate who remains extremely likely to win, and yet . . .

The race goes on -- for two weeks at least, and probably six weeks -- if not all the way to the convention.

Many things didn't change on Tuesday: Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is still the favorite, flush with cash and armed with a delegate lead that shrank by barely 10 percent, despite a 10-point loss in the biggest state left on the calendar.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., retains only a tortuous path to the nomination -- lined with temptations to take the Democratic Party tumbling down the mountain with her (and, perhaps, Obama).

But Clinton's margin in Pennsylvania -- powered by demographics that gave her 60 of 67 Keystone State counties, including newly Democratic Bucks and Montgomery -- are surely enough to keep Clinton in the race a while longer.

"Mrs. Clinton's margin was probably not sufficient to fundamentally alter the dynamics of the race, which continued to favor an eventual victory for Mr. Obama," Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times. "But it made clear that the contest will go on at least a few weeks, if not more. And it served to underline the concerns about Mr. Obama's strengths as a general election candidate."

By one (rightly disputed) metric -- the popular vote, including Florida and Michigan -- Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama. But without the rogue states, Obama is still up by 500,000 -- and if you can find another objective measurement by which she's in the lead, let us know.

It's enough for Clinton: "I think that's one of the most important factors that people have to take into account," Clinton told ABC's Diane Sawyer on "Good Morning America" Wednesday. "But of course, the votes in Michigan and Florida were official -- I mean, they were certified by the secretary of state. It's just that the Democratic Party can't figure out what to do with all those votes, and try to seat delegates."

"I actually have more votes from people who actually voted for me," Clinton added. "Last night's win should give a lot of fresh information to our superdelegates, because after all, the road to Pennsylvania Avenue does lead through Pennsylvania."

From a Clinton campaign memo out Wednesday morning (subject line: "The Tide is Turning"): "By providing fresh evidence that Hillary is the candidate best positioned to beat John McCain in the fall, the Pennsylvania primary is a turning point in the nominating contest," the memo reads. "And with both candidates under the microscope at the same time for the first time, Hillary took more than a few punches and came out stronger while Sen. Obama emerged weaker as voters learned more about him."

Don't expect a flood, not with Clinton winning key battlegrounds: "It is an argument that stalls superdelegates right now," ABC's George Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America." "They're still going to hang back. . . . He's not going to get the wave he needs -- this is going on to Indiana and North Carolina."

The pace quickens: "Despite Clinton's win, Obama remains the front-runner for the nomination, with a significant overall delegate lead and a huge financial advantage. She also has few primaries left in which to overtake him," Thomas Fitzgerald writes in the Philadelphia Inquirer.

"Still, Clinton's big margins among white working-class voters seemed likely to add fuel to her argument that Obama cannot win the big industrial swing states in the fall against Republican John McCain."

By ABC's count, Clinton picked up 16 delegates in the Keystone State, with 16 more still to be awarded, leaving Obama's overall edge at 130.

From the Obama campaign's evening-capping memo: "Hillary Clinton lost her last, best chance to make significant inroads in the pledged delegate count," reads the memo. "The bottom line is that the Pennsylvania outcome does not change dynamic of this lengthy primary."

The margin matters -- and Clinton won by enough to stay in the game, if not to change it. And close to the minds of superdelegates is one very big number that has nothing to do with vote totals: the $42 million Obama has in his piggybank.

(That $2.5 million raised Tuesday night is a good start -- but only that. When Clinton gave out her Website address on stage Tuesday, there's a good bet that superdelegates only heard two syllables: I'm broke.)

"Obama's loss in Pennsylvania raised anew questions about his ability to win the big industrial states that will be critical to the Democrats' hopes of winning back the White House in November," Dan Balz writes in The Washington Post. "In the coming days, Clinton's camp will try to play on those doubts with uncommitted superdelegates -- who have been moving toward Obama over the past two months -- urging them to remain neutral until the primaries are over."

But if fence-sitters stay firmly planted, what other incentives can Clinton provide to bring them down? Balz, on the daunting (and shrinking) map: "Clinton expects victories in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Obama's team expects to win Oregon, North Carolina, Montana, South Dakota and Guam. That makes Indiana the critical battleground. Obama was there last night and Clinton will arrive today."