The Note: Super-Scare

May 1, 2008 -- If this wasn't a super-scare, what might be?

Six solid weeks of Wright's wrongs, "bitter" pills, bad bowling, gaffes, and goofs (and one big loss in one important state) surely have registered with those astute political observers known as superdelegates, and yet . . . Sen. Barack Obama's magic number shrinks by the day.

It's not a flood that washes away the mess left by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, but Wright's wake brought Obama another three superdelegate pickups Wednesday -- compared to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's two.

It widens Obama's lead at a time that Clinton needs to be making up ground -- and might just be the answer we've been waiting for to the question of whether all these distractions matter.

And Thursday brings a switcher in Obama's direction -- a big Clinton name in a key state: Joe Andrew, an Indiana native who served as DNC chairman from 1999-2001 -- installed by Bill Clinton -- announces his move from Clinton to Obama at a 10 am ET press conference in Indianapolis.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew tells the AP's Nedra Pickler.

Says his letter to fellow superdelegates: "A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists John McCain."

If Democratic Party leaders are as concerned as Harold Ickes and Terry McAuliffe say they should be, now might be a good time for them to speak up.

Clinton, D-N.Y., is making her argument, and Obama, D-Ill., might even be helping her do it. But what if it's the wrong argument for the wrong time in the Democratic race? What if -- to borrow a timely phrase that we've heard can be used prematurely -- the mission has been accomplished?

"The senator from New York continues to lose ground with the one group that can still deliver her the nomination -- the party leaders and elected officials known as superdelegates," Jonathan Weisman and Shailagh Murray write in The Washington Post.

"For the Clinton campaign, the reemergence of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., soon after Obama's comments about 'bitter' small-town voters, was supposed to be the moment when superdelegates decided Obama could not be elected president," they write. "Instead, he has won more superdelegate endorsements than Clinton in recent days, whittling her once-overwhelming lead down to about 20."

Key sentiment: "Anybody who did not think Republicans would characterize either of our candidates somehow as deeply flawed has been living in another country, if not another planet," said Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., who remains undecided but tells the Post he believes Obama will be the nominee.

"Some people think the furor over Barack Obama's fiery ex-pastor could torpedo his candidacy, but nobody told that to the superdelegates who will decide the contest," Ken Bazinet writes in the New York Daily News.

Per ABC's count, it's never been closer on the superdelegate front: With Andrew's switch, Clinton's super-lead is down to 14, 257-243. Toss in the pledged delegates and Obama has a 143-delegate edge -- an advantage that looks bigger as you get closer to it.

And yet -- there's a competing storyline that cast this as an open race still. The numbers suggest the toll: "Senator Barack Obama's aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished after his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and amid the furor over his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll," Robin Toner and Megan Thee write in The New York Times.

Obama's unfavorable ratings are only going in one direction. And do you think Camp Clinton might quote this stat? "In a head-to-head race between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, both candidates are backed by 45 percent of the registered voters. In a race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain, 48 percent back Mrs. Clinton and 43 percent support Mr. McCain."

In the Democratic head-to-head, it's 46-38 Obama over Clinton in the NYT/CBS poll, and 46-43 in the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. "Both candidates have been bloodied, though Sen. Obama, who previously has enjoyed much higher personal ratings than Sen. Clinton, has sustained more damage," Jackie Calmes writes in the Journal.

Indiana and North Carolina still matter -- and that fact is good news for the candidate who's trying to stay in contention.

"If the mathematics of the race has not changed, [Clinton] aides believe the psychology has," Politico's Mike Allen and John F. Harris write. "Before, the Clintons knew they were fighting a story line that said she could never win unless superdelegates take the nomination away from a popular African-American who came in first. Now they hope that they have subtly shifted to a new story line: Superdelegates must think twice before bestowing the nomination on an increasingly controversial politician who has missed repeated opportunities to wrap up the contest with a decisive, big-state victory."

"Pumped up and focused, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is putting in 16-hour days in Indiana this week as if she -- and not her embattled rival, Senator Barack Obama -- needs a campaign-changing moment in Tuesday's primary here," Patrick Healy writes in The New York Times.

"Some lawmakers, such as Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), suggest worries behind the scenes about the re-emergence of Wright are more serious," The Hill's Mike Soraghan and Jared Allen write. "After coming off the [House] floor Tuesday night, Cleaver said an Obama supporter had just told him, 'We're scared to death.' "

"Some party leaders and superdelegates said the Wright controversy has given them pause, raising questions about Mr. Obama's electability in the general election next fall," John Sullivan and Carl Hulse write in The New York Times. "Chris Redfern, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, who is uncommitted, said Mr. Obama's delay in responding to Mr. Wright might have hurt his standing with many voters -- in particular, so-called Reagan Democrats who live in places like Toledo."