Voting Day #17

May 05, 2008— -- If the conventional wisdom (and assorted state polling) holds on Tuesday, and Barack Obama wins North Carolina and Hillary Clinton wins Indiana, then we wake up on Wednesday looking at four more weeks of campaigning, six more primaries and ramped up pressure on superdelegates to start making their endorsements public.

In other words, not much will have changed from the last four weeks. Has anyone started looking into whether there are direct flights from San Juan, Puerto Rico to Billings, MT or Sioux Falls, SD?

In perhaps their sharpest policy disagreement on the campaign trail, the two Democratic candidates have been clashing over what to do about rising gas prices. Clinton supports a freeze on the gas tax during summer months (as does John McCain) while Obama continues to speak out strongly against the position.

Whether voters agree with Clinton that Obama doesn't get it on this issue and isn't offering solutions, or if they agree with Obama that the proposal is just a political "stunt," could determine what has been a tight and contentious Indiana primary battle.

Indiana may be a true toss up primary, with demographics favorable to both Clinton and Obama. The state is a unique patchwork mix that has areas that resemble Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky. There are many rural, blue collar regions as well as urban, industrial regions with large African-American populations.

Neither candidate has a clear advantage but the overall demographics in the state may favor Clinton, because of how well she has performed with blue-collar, lower-income voters in previous states. Obama will need strong turnout and support in his strongholds (northern and central Indiana urban areas) in order to offset Clinton's support in large swaths of the southern part of the state.

The importance of North Carolina in shaping the overall picture of the Democratic race going forward cannot be overstated. This is the first state that Obama has been expected to win since the second round of controversy surrounding his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

For the first time since the South Carolina primary nearly four months ago, Obama goes into a presidential contest facing more heat than Clinton.

North Carolina, which has a large number of black voters, is the kind of place the Democratic frontrunner is expected to win. Roughly one-third of the Democratic electorate is expected to be African American. Statewide polls show the Illinois senator leading Clinton, but both campaigns seem to think the race has tightened a bit this week.

Clinton and Obama stump in both states appealing to voters before primary day. LINK

Tom Hanks: I Support Barack Obama
The actor jokes about his support for the senator in an online video. LINK

First Lady Urges Burma to Accept Aid
First Lady Laura Bush offers international aid to Burma after cyclone devastates region. LINK

McCain Aligns GOP with Hispanic Issues
"Everything about our Hispanic voters is tailor-made to the Republican message." LINK

Diane Sawyer Speaks With Obama
Senator talks about the issues affecting voters in the primaries. LINK

Clinton Talks With Diane Sawyer
On the eve of important primaries, senator makes her last push for votes. LINK

The History of the National Mall
A look back at the origins of this special site. LINK

High Hopes for Primaries
The Clinton campaign hopes for a "game-changer" in Indiana and North Carolina. LINK

What Will It Take?
A look at Hillary Clinton's odds in the upcoming primaries. LINK

Secretary of State in the Middle East
Rice attempts to move Israeli and Palestinian leaders toward a peace deal. LINK

Momentum and Math on the Trail
George analyzes Clinton's momentum and Obama's math before Indiana's primary. LINK

Hillary Clinton on the Consent Decree
Sen. Clinton: "You can't go around dragging the ball and chain of the past." LINK

Barack Obama on the Consent Decree
Sen. Obama explains his stance on lifting the consent decree on the Teamsters. LINK