The Note: Hoosier Democrat?

May 6, 2008 -- This time, the sharp blades of spin cut in both directions: Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton both have must-win contests on Tuesday -- and the Democratic contest just might be lurching toward something political scientists call a "conclusion."

But not so fast: Delegates will become an increasingly precious commodity after Tuesday; your stat for the day is that nearly as many delegates (187) will be awarded in Indiana and North Carolina as will be in all the remaining contests combined (217). And Indiana figures to be one of the last contests where the outcome is realistically in doubt.

Obama looks to end a long losing streak (and put the roughest stretch of his campaign behind him), while Clinton looks to continue her improbable winning streak. Whether those results have any relationship to actually winning or losing the nomination will depend on how they're interpreted by that tiny crowd of voters that sees its super-powers growing by the day.

For both Obama and Clinton, Tuesday marks the last best chance to add delegates -- and, more importantly in the long arc of this nomination fight, make their cases to the superdelegates.

"It will be an opportunity for Mrs. Clinton to make the case that Democratic sentiment is swinging in her favor, and to slice into Mr. Obama's lead in pledged delegates and in the popular vote," Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times, where he outlines three scenarios for the day's results. "For Mr. Obama, it is a chance to tamp down talk that Mrs. Clinton has exposed him as a flawed general election candidate."

The takeaway: Tuesday is unlikely to end anything: "The most likely split would be Mrs. Clinton winning Indiana and Mr. Obama winning North Carolina. That would almost surely mean the race would go on," Nagourney writes.

"Today is likely to be 'Groundhog Day': Six more weeks of this campaign," ABC's George Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America" Tuesday, pegging Clinton for a 4-to-8-point victory in Indiana, and Obama for a solid win in North Carolina.

The Washington Post's Dan Balz sees Tuesday's contests answering questions on everything from the Wright effect to the politics of gas prices, and offers this viewer's guide: "North Carolina holds the potential to shake up the Democratic race. Clinton rightly called it a possible game-changer last week. Simply holding Obama's expected victory down into the single digits will be described by the Clinton forces as a moral victory and could signal continuing problems for Obama among white voters."

If the day ends the way polls predict, keep this in mind: The team that's down in the standings late in the season can't afford to split doubleheaders.

Obama's magic number is growing smaller by the day: Three more superdelegate endorsements Monday (including two in Maryland) bring Obama's overall delegate lead to 144, per ABC's delegate scorecard -- and Clinton's advantage among the supers is down to a slim 10.

The likeliest result would deposit us somewhere in the neighborhood of the status quo. For Clinton, one win is enough to justify another month of campaigning: "If her campaign gains momentum out of Tuesday's primaries, the next six contests in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota may afford enough opportunities for victory to sustain her campaign at least through June 3," Charles Mahtesian and David Mark write for Politico.

"While a split decision -- such as Clinton winning Indiana and Obama winning North Carolina -- could leave the contest unchanged, either candidate could change the dynamic of the race heading into the final weeks by winning both on Tuesday," McClatchy's Steven Thomma and Margaret Talev write.

"Clinton needs a game changer and Obama needs a closer," Lynn Sweet writes in the Chicago Sun-Times.

Camp Clinton sets some expectations with Drudge: "The campaign now believes a 15 point loss [in North Carolina], or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina. The campaign hopes media attention will stay fixated on the competition in Indiana, where 72 delegates are on the line, and Clinton internals show a 10-point victory!"

In Indiana, polls opened at 6 am ET and close by 7 pm ET, with 72 delegates are at stake in Tuesday's voting. The Indianapolis forecast: partly cloudy and mild.

In North Carolina, polls opened at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET, and a total of 115 pledged delegates will be awarded. It's looking cloudy but dry in the Tarheel State.

Voting is expected to be heavy in both states: "Primary madness has overtaken the state. Turnout is expected to obliterate previous records," Matthew Tully writes in the Indianapolis Star. "And while many Democrats fear the sniping between Obama and Clinton will leave their party divided and weakened, imagine how many activists, volunteers and young supporters this process has created. The ramifications of this historic political stretch will be felt for years, even decades."

"Lines formed at polling places before daybreak this morning in the Charlotte area and across North Carolina, amid signs of a record turnout today in North Carolina's first significant presidential primary election in two decades," Peter St. Onge and Steve Lyttle report in the Charlotte Observer. "Longtime N.C. political observers say that 1.5 million voters may participate in the historic Democratic primary."

"Now it's up to the voters, who are expected to turn out today in record-busting numbers in the most consequential North Carolina presidential primary in decades," Barbara Barrett and Rob Christensen write in the Raleigh News & Observer. "Already, more than 470,000 residents have cast ballots early in one-stop voting that closed Saturday."

It took them long enough, but Obama and Clinton finally settled on a real policy difference that actually does speak to their candidacies in a broader sense: the gas tax. "Never before have two presidential campaigns staked so much on 18.4 cents," Bloomberg News' Catherine Dodge writes.

Dueling ads tell the story. Obama ad: "Her attacks do nothing but harm." Clinton ad: "What's happened to Barack Obama?" (Sounds like the title of a future magazine piece.)

Obama calls lifting the tax a "phony scheme" -- connecting it to his message of the need to change Washington -- while Clinton is using her proposal to suspend the gas tax to portray her opponent as out-of-touch.

"People live in the short run. People get up every day and have to go fill up their tanks," she said Monday, per ABC's Eloise Harper.

Both candidates have found a way to define themselves through their very different stances: "Standing up to a proposal that even Clinton supporters see as pandering has allowed Obama to revisit his most successful days as a fresh voice uninhibited by Washington's habits," E.J. Dionne Jr. writes.