The Note: Secrets of Letting Go

May 12, 2008 -- If what we learned from MacArthur applies to politicians as well as old soldiers, it's only a matter of time before the Clintons fade away.

If what we learned in third grade applies to presidential candidates as well as schoolyard bullies, ignoring Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton might make her go away.

(And if what we learn from watching politics matters at all anymore, you can't run a campaign without any money -- and no uncommitted superdelegate will want to be the last one on a train that's firing its way out of a hopeful station.)

But what if the old rules don't apply to Clintons? And even if they do -- what happens in the stretch of time before they kick in?

Even if the Clintons watch their words these next few weeks, Clinton is almost certainly asking Democrats to vote against their nominee before they vote for him (and they will, in large numbers, starting Tuesday in West Virginia).

Even if Sen. Clinton goes quickly and quietly when the voting is done, the damage until that point is real (it's not like the Republicans are taking this time off) -- and there's nothing quick or quiet about what's going on.

Clinton is heavily favored to win West Virginia, and Sen. Barack Obama doesn't seem to care very much; in the week since Indiana and North Carolina, he makes his first and last campaign stop there on Monday.

Unless the superdelegates change their minds -- and fast -- even wide Obama losses will matter approximately not at all -- except that they might, just not in the way Clinton hopes they will.

"The toughest question for Hillary Clinton now is not if she drops out of the presidential race, or even when. It's how," David Saltonstall writes in the New York Daily News. "Does she go down swinging at Democratic rival Barack Obama until the final primary on June 3, forcing Obama to spend precious time and money along the way? Or does she edge off the presidential stage more gracefully, looking for common ground with her fellow Democrat while focusing her barbs at presumptive GOP nominee John McCain?"

Hillary is sticking around: "It's not over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is," she said Sunday, quoting a message she said she got from a supporter, per ABC's Eloise Harper.

The only mother in the race was the only candidate who didn't take Mother's Day off: "This is an awkward phase in a long campaign. Mrs. Clinton has not quite given up her quest for the nomination, and Mr. Obama has not quite finished his," Katharine Q. Seelye writes in The New York Times. "But if Mrs. Clinton is to have a chance, her campaign understands the importance of invigorating her most loyal and passionate supporters -- the women who see her as sharing their interests and aspirations."

Bill Clinton isn't exactly traversing common ground, not by firing up class divides in West Virginia. "What purpose does it serve for him to barnstorm a state like West Virginia and tell rural voters that Obama and his elitist political/media cabal allies are mocking Appalachia?" ABC's Jake Tapper writes. "He's using the kind of language Democrats typically use against Republicans -- as in, stuff you say when you don't want voters to vote for the other guy under any circumstance. This is tough stuff to walk back from."

(Imagine the pain with which the former president uttered these words: "I also wanna say, on instructions [!!!!], I've been a Democrat all my life," Clinton said Saturday in Montana, per ABC's Sarah Amos. "I'm here to tell ya that however these last states come out, my candidates, our family and our supporters will be here to get a victory in November for the Democrats.")

Why she fights: "With nearly everyone -- including, privately, many on her own team -- contemplating when, not if, she will quit the race, the questions surrounding Clinton now go largely to her motivation," Anne Kornblut writes in The Washington Post. And David Axelrod doesn't seem ready to write any checks: "I don't think even under any scenario . . . that we were going to transfer money from the Obama campaign to the Clinton campaign."

No (easy) way out: "Clinton is balancing a range of considerations: her bank account; her political future and the party's; her need to win back Obama's supporters, particularly African-Americans; and her need to keep faith with voters in her own (nearly) half of the party, many of whom have grown to dislike her rival," Politico's Ben Smith writes.

"And so her options range from swift and gracious (although time is running out on that one) to the political version of Custer's last stand: taking a losing hand to the Democratic National Convention in August."

"Any chance that Obama might ask Sen. Hillary Clinton to be his running mate depends on how these last few weeks proceed -- very, very sensitive weeks," ABC's Jake Tapper reported Monday on "Good Morning America." "Democrats are also worried about the damage the Clintons are willing to do to Obama as they exit."

Think the endgame has the party concerned? Warned former senator John Edwards, D-N.C., on "Face the Nation": "I think the one thing that [Clinton] has to be careful about . . . is that, if she makes the case for herself, which she's completely entitled to do, she has to be really careful that she's not damaging our prospects, the Democratic Party, and our cause, for the fall."

Some nudges can't hurt. Edwards: "You can no longer make a compelling case for the math."

Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill.: "At this point, Barack is the presumptive nominee."

Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C.: "I don't believe that there is any way that she can win the nomination."

Michael Dukakis: "He's going to get the nomination within the next month or so."

Here's more of a shove. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., talking with Bloomberg's Al Hunt about why the "dream ticket" is sort of a nightmare: Obama would be better off with someone who "is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people," Kennedy said. "And I think if we had real leadership -- as we do with Barack Obama -- in the number-two spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful." (Ouch -- though his staff says the comments weren't a swipe at Clinton.)

And this is just clumsy: "Glenn Close should have stayed in that tub," said Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Tenn.

Yet the comments remain, for the most part, gentle -- the Clintons having earned the right to get out on their own terms (though those terms surely have limits).

"Breaking up is hard to do, especially when the other person doesn't want to say goodbye," writes Christi Parsons of the Chicago Tribune, finding Democrats to be "torturously deferential" in their comments about what Clinton should do and when she should do it.

Why it's not easy to go: "The Clintons have been here before, you see. They're being impeached all over again," Michael Crowley writes for The New Republic. "Surviving impeachment didn't just require savvy tactics; it required defiance."

On the superdelegate front, Obama closed out the weekend plus-6, while Clinton netted zero -- her sole pick-up negated by a defector. Since last Tuesday's non-tie split, Obama has added 19 new supers, while Clinton has netted one.