Pledged Delegate Milestone

May 19, 2008— -- KENTUCKY - Democratic Primary - closed

Polls close: 7:00 PM ET

51 delegates at stake, proportional

OREGON - Democratic Primary - closed
Polls close: 11:00 PM ET
52 delegates at stake, proportional

Tuesday night's primaries look like another split decision – Barack Obama is favored in Oregon and Hillary Clinton is favored in Kentucky. But unlike primary night draws in the past, Tuesday could be actually have a game-changing moment in the battle for the Democratic nomination.

The night could be a milestone in the nomination race if Obama is able to achieve a majority (1627 or more) of the total pledged delegates (3253). At this writing, he has 1609 pledged delegates in the ABC News delegate estimate and needs just 18 to achieve the majority.

Of course, this does not constitute victory. Obama still needs to reach the DNC's magic number of 2026. But reaching this pledged delegate marker does give the Obama a solid talking point to pitch to the 200 or so uncommitted superdelegates that they now should follow the will of the voters.

Clinton will be in Louisville when results come in tomorrow night while Obama will "bring things full circle" and hold a rally in Iowa.

ABC News' Sunlen Miller reports that Obama will not declare victory in the nomination fight but did call reaching the majority of pledged delegates "a pretty significant mark."

"It doesn't mean we declare victory because I won't be the nominee until we have enough, a combination of both pledged delegates and superdelegates to hit the mark," Obama said on Sunday in Milwaukie, Oregon. "But what it does mean is that voters have given us the majority of delegates that they can assign. And obviously that is what this primary and caucus process is about."

Things to look for on Tuesday night:

1. Superdelegate movement. While he will be able to claim the majority of pledged delegates, it would take a flood of superdelegates endorsing Obama to put him over the magic number of 2026 to win the nomination tomorrow night. But there are superdelgates that could announce after the results are in in Oregon and Kentucky. Eight of the 14 superdelegates from Oregon remain uncommitted and it would not be surprising to see them come out quickly after the results are in (and support Obama should he win the state). A spokesman for the Kentucky Democratic Party chair and vice-chair, who are both uncommitted, has indicated that they would wait until after the state votes and take into account the results.

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