The Note: If You Don't Embrace a Duck . . .

— -- WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 --

NEWS SUMMARY
In the wake of his non-embrace of lifting the earnings cap on Social Security taxation, the President of the United States has been rewarded with:

-- a Wall Street Journal editorial questioning both his political judgment and his fidelity to lower taxes and sound policy

-- an implicit/explicit rebuke from Speaker Hastert and Leader DeLay

-- a chorus of "read my lips" taunting from conservative activists

-- this hideous last sentence from that same Wall Street Journal editorial (Note hint: there's a reason we are second-referencing this piece five paragraphs in . . . ): "What an unhappy irony it would be if Republicans finally gained control of the levers of power in Washington only to pass the largest entitlement expansion since 1965 (the Medicare drug bill) in Mr. Bush's first term, and effectively repeal his income tax cuts in the second."

-- Cheney buddy Charles Krauthammer saying the President has completely messed up his sales pitch

-- no indications of a single crack in the phalanx of Democratic opposition to his "plan"

-- a must-read Paul Krugman column breaking the GOP sales code by comparing the rhetorical linkage between 9/11 and Iraq with the rhetorical linkage between the future Social Security trust fund shortfall and the "need" for private accounts LINK

The Chattering Class CW (egged on by some seemingly downbeat presidential rhetoric at yesterday's press conference and the GE/Dow Jones poll numbers) is that the White House isn't making apparent progress on moving the reform ball on the issue with the public.

And now the battle will be joined starting this weekend and into next week, as the congressional recess allows for town meetings and other gatherings across the fruited plain, over the hill and through the woods, and in every nook and cranny of these United States.

Who will be the next Harry and Louise? The next Zell Miller? The next Tax Family?

As they say on Action News at 11: only time will tell.

So while we wait for the people and their elected representatives to decide how they would like to fund retirement security for future generations, read these two must-read paragraphs:

From Steve "The Baton" Labaton of the New York Times and his awesome piece on the emboldened business lobby, a little more code breaking:

"Other political forces are at work in favor of the business groups. The leaders of the House and Senate, often at odds even though the same party controls both chambers, have so far been working well together. In the case of the class-action legislation, the House agreed to adopt the Senate measure provided that the Senate did not amend the bill. Senate supporters then used that commitment to beat back both significant and modest proposals to change the legislation. There was talk on Capitol Hill this week that the same strategy could be used for the bankruptcy bill." LINK

If that paragraph bored you into skimming, trust us: force yourself to go back and read it carefully.

And from another New York Times story, in which Jacques Steinberg is forced by David Sanger to turn yet another narrative into a disquisition on North Korea, the pair look at the complexities of the new U.S. ambassador to Japan being the brother of a network anchorman. The Timesman get the anchorman to say this:

"'I like to tease people,' (Bob Schieffer) said. 'I'll say, "Do you think I'm a Democrat or a Republican?" I'll say, "I believe in the death penalty, so that makes me a conservative, right?" Then I say, "Yeah, but I'm also pro-choice. I guess that makes me a Democrat."'" LINK

At 11:40 am ET, President Bush signs the Class Action Fairness Act into law in the East Room.

At 3:05 pm ET, he meets at the White House with Cabinet secretaries and administrators of federal agencies with Centers for Faith-Based Community Initiatives.

Today at CPAC:

--9:40 am ET: Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK): "Simply Talking About Runaway Spending Won't Cut It"
--3:05 pm ET: Sen. John Sununu (R-NH): "How the President and Congress Can Fix Social Security This Year"
--7:30 pm ET: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) delivers the keynote address at a banquet honoring the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

And of course CPAC continues this weekend, including the non-scientificish straw poll on a range of matters, including '08.

At 2:30 pm ET, Veterans Affairs Secretary Jim Nicholson takes his oath of office, administered by Justice Antonin Scalia.

Be sure to tune in on Sunday to "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," when former Sen. John Edwards sits down for his first post-election Sunday conversation on the future of the Democratic Party and his new job at UNC's Center on Poverty, Work, and Opportunity.

And next week, "This Week" hosts a sit-down with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

And we urge you to embrace the patriotic celebration of President's Day on Monday.

We will -- and The Note will return on Tuesday.

Social Security:
The Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten and Warren Vieth practically draw the curtains and put President Bush's Social Security plan in the fetal position, reporting that economic conservatives aren't protesting quietly his openness to raising the ceiling on wages subject to payroll taxes. LINK

And everyone from Vice President Cheney and the American Conservative Union to AEI and the National Taxpayers Union are making the case against what they're calling tax hikes. We wonder who's going to return Pat Toomey's call.

(Speaking last night at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Vice President Cheney reiterated the vow not to raise the payroll tax and said "we cannot tax our way out of this problem.")

The Washington Post's Mike Allen adds more detail to efforts by House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Majority Leader Tom DeLay to put the kibosh on the suggestion that President Bush meta-floated. LINK

The New York Times' Stevenson and Toner write that "Their quick and negative reaction underscored the difficulty the administration is having in moving forward with its plan to overhaul Social Security, the issue Mr. Bush has put at the top of his domestic agenda and made a test of his political clout." LINK

Z. Hallow quotes Rep. Paul Ryan (R) as saying that a tax increase is pretty much a dead letter. LINK

After the President's 800-lb. visit this week, Rep. Jeb Bradley appears to be moving toward the personal accounts option. LINK

AP's Laura Meckler writes that raising the ceiling could raise more than $100 billion a yearLINK

So, we wonder at this point: is the President more likely to sign a bill into law with near unanimous House Republican support, or with a NAFTA-like bipartisan centrist coalition that losses a lot of conservatives?

In the aforementioned column, Paul Krugman calls Alan Greenspan a "partisan hack." LINK

In the aforementioned column, Charles Krauthammer writes that the President's claim about Social Security going bankrupt in 2042 is wrong, and that nothing can really get accomplished until all parties start being honest about the tipping point that will happen to the pay-as-you-go plan in 2018. LINK

Elatedly, George Will Notes the Administration is warring on two fronts: with Democrats, and with small-government conservatives. LINK

Free Matt Cooper and Judith Miller:
Writes ABC News President David Westin in the Wall Street Journal about the Plame investigation and the important principles at stake for the nation: LINK

"We can think what we like about the respective missions and values of prosecutors and journalists. But what makes this particular case bizarre is that the underlying crime was committed, if at all, by an official of the very government that is trying to punish the reporters who allegedly witnessed it. This appears to be a case of a government unable or unwilling to take the steps it needs to police its own senior officials and, when caught, taking it out on innocent journalists simply trying to do their job."

". . . What we have, then, is the government seeking to punish innocent journalists, whose only alleged wrongdoing is keeping a confidence, all in order to determine whether the government itself has failed to police its own employees. This is just about the weakest case imaginable for casting aside the constitutional interest in preserving a free press, whose effectiveness depends in part on its ability to protect sources. All of us want prosecutors to be able to search out wrongdoing, wherever it occurs. But do we really believe that the best way to ensure that government officials honor their duty to keep government confidences is to throw the reporters they talk to in jail for keeping a confidence?"

National security:
The Washington Post's Dana Priest and Robin Wright break down the mountain that lies ahead for Ambassador Negroponte, from the questions of briefings and budget to the bureaucratic turf battles and the image he needs to convey to be effective. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Bob Drogin writes that Negroponte will have to create the job from scratch, and good luck negotiating on intelligence budgets with Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and CIA Director Goss. He also Notes, as has been widely mentioned, Negroponte's people, if not political, skills, are his greatest asset -- if not a possible mis-fit. LINK

USA Today's Judy Keen and Andrea Stone get more reax tot he Negroponte nomination. LINK

The Washington Post's Peter Baker wraps the rest of President Bush's news conference yesterday, Noting his emphasis on using diplomacy rather than military solutions for Syria, Iran, and North Korea. LINK

"The cautious tone reflects how the outside world has thrust itself back onto Bush's agenda at a time when he would prefer to focus on his domestic platform, particularly Social Security. Bush has been crisscrossing the United States pitching his plan to allow younger workers to divert Social Security payroll taxes to personal investment accounts -- only to find his campaign-style swings drowned out by new eruptions overseas."

Iraq:
Teases John Harwood in the Wall Street Journal: "A Pentagon official says guard and reserve troops, now 40% of Iraq force, may fall to 30% by 2006."

Bush agenda:
USA Today's Judy Keen curtain-raises President Bush's trip to Europe next week. LINK

The Washington Post's John Harris explains the politics that led some Democrats to join President Bush in supporting the Class Action Fairness Act. LINK

CPACing across the universe . . . :
Cattle call alert? The National Federation of Republican Assemblies is holding what we think will be the first official pageant of the 2008 nomination race for Republicans. They've invited all the major candidates -- from Allen to Tancredo to Giuliani -- to speak in front of the group's members in Scottsdale, Arizona in early September. LINK

NFRA President Richard Engle said that one major presidential prospect had already agreed to attend and that he expected many other presidential prospects to do so as well. (We checked with that prospect's office and they have never heard of the group.)

But onward: the NFRA, with about 50,000 members nationwide, calls itself the Republican Wing of the Republican Party, and a smattering of literature suggests that they're firmly and happily ensconced in the Tancredo branch of the party.

One handout written by Engle -- a handout he specifically and enthusiastically brought to our attention as "controversial" -- spotlights what he describes as the growing menace of tribal gaming and calls "tribal ethnic separation" . . . "racism."

In another, Engle writes that the conservative base is "far more conservative than its leadership . . . I am out to change that [leadership]."

In a third piece of literature, Engle writes that "President won reelection on the basis of Strong Defense/war policy, lower taxes and traditional marriage. He did not win because he wants to spend more on welfare/prescription drugs, illegal alien amnesty, or billions on African HIV/AIDS medicine. Indeed, he won despite those things . . . "

2008 is SO going to ROCK!

Speaking of which: maybe he didn't mean it this way, but when Karl Rove spent a minute at the beginning of his speech exhorting the CPAC crowd to volunteer for Sen. Rick Santorum's re-election campaign in 2006, it seemed to us that the Assistant to the President was suggesting that Mr. Santorum would have quite a challenge on his hands. (Santorum, to be fair, spoke shortly before Rove, and he was well received by the CPACers.)

"If you're in a state that doesn't have a complicated election picture next year . . . if you might have a little time on your hands in 2006 come Election Day . . . my recommendation is make your reservation right now for a Motel 6 or Holiday Inn in someplace in Pennsylvania to be helping this good guy get reelected, because he's going to be a target, and he is a good man and we need to have back in the United States Senate." (Courtesy of: LINK)

--Rove's speech was well-attended, but the Sam Donaldson/Bob Novak bias debate was packed to the rafters.

--Overheard at CPAC: a young Republican operative named Jordan Gehrke asking conservative activist Bob Eberle (brother of Bruce) "who's gonna be our nominee in 2008?" "I really don't know," Eberle said. "I'm taking a good hard look at Tim Pawlenty," Mr. Gehrke said in response.

--Overheard at CPAC: (2) "Michael Barone looks so much younger in person!" (Note: We couldn't agree more!!!)

--Most entertaining arguments in the atrium of the Reagan Building: youngling anti-drug legalization conservatives trading facts and stats with youngling pro-drug legalization conservatives.

--Best reason overheard to attend function for College Republican National Committee presidential candidate: "There's going to be lots of beer." (And no, we're not pulling a Stephen Glass.)

The New York Times' David Kirkpatrick, wading into familiar territory at CPAC, covers the substance of the Hon. Rove's remarks, Noting his claim that President Bush has helped to pull conservatism from the forces of reaction into the forces of progress. LINK

We might actually pay to hear the words "smarty-pants liberal friends" uttered more in public speeches; Mr. Rove knows how to serve that red meat!!! LINK

The Boston Globe's Nina Easton has more, including a lot of interesting Baroneia. LINK

Z. Hallow chronicles the day like only he can. LINK

Democrats regroup:
From John Harwood and the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire: "AMERICANS WANT DEMOCRATS to stand up to Bush."

"Fully 60%, including one-fourth of Republicans, say Democrats in Congress should make sure Bush and his party 'don't go too far.' Just 34% want Democrats to "work in a bipartisan way" to help pass the president's priorities."

"Like Bush, new Democratic Chairman Dean polarizes opinion. By 45% to 5%, Democrats say he will project a positive image rather than a negative one; Republicans say the opposite by 37% to 19%. Independents divide more evenly."

It's official. Dean's going to Kansas on Feb. 25: "The Kansas Democratic Party is proud to announce New DNC Chairman Howard Dean is coming to Lawrence, KS for a rally to support our State Party. Dean's visit to Kansas will kick off his commitment to building the Democratic Party in every state across the country."

Dean's debate with Richard Perle produced nothing spectacularly interesting, if the AP write-up is telling us all there is, except for the shoe thrown at Perle by a protestor (who wasn't Dean). LINK

Note to New York Republicans: when you give a photo aiming to prove Lynne Stewart was a Democrat to the New York Post, you'd better be sure the photograph is of Lynne Stewart. LINK

The absence of a victory-lap quote from Howard Wolfson is somewhat shocking.

2006:
Ralph Reed for Lieutenant Governor of Georgia. LINK

2008:
Writes the New York Post's Vincent Morris (and teased on Drudge all evening): "With one eye on her 2008 White House campaign, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton yesterday introduced a wide-ranging election-reform bill that would boost turnout among Democratic voters -- and let ex-felons vote." LINK

Wonder what Sen. Clinton thinks about this court decision: "A judge ordered yesterday that the state stop taking away the driver's licenses of immigrants in New York who do not have Social Security cards, saying that the Department of Motor Vehicles is not authorized to enforce immigration law or to make new rules without public notice," the New York Times' Nina Bernstein reports. LINK

From Lloyd Grove in the New York Daily News: "I hope Sen. Hillary Clinton isn't counting on help from Hollywood mogul David Geffen in her possible run for the White House in 2008. Geffen, a generous supporter and pal of Bill Clinton when he was President, trashed Hillary's prospects last night during a Q&A at the 92nd St. Y. 'She can't win, and she's an incredibly polarizing figure,' the billionaire Democrat told his audience. 'And ambition is just not a good enough reason.' Geffen's dis was met with hearty applause." LINK

AP reports that Tom Ridge huddled with Frank Luntz and Bill McInturff last spring when his job took him to 10 presidential battleground states. LINK

A photo of things to come? LINK

Would it be "Biden-Warner," or "Warner-Biden," The Note wonders . . . ?

Politics:
As Noted above, the New York Times' Steve Labaton sagely catches the wind at the backs of business lobbyists but leaves unmentioned their pronounced worry about the possibility that reform will lead to higher taxes on business. LINK

Peter Nicholas of the Los Angeles Times wraps Gov. Schwarzenegger's Hill visit on Thursday -- including the advice from some Democrats to ratchet back the "girlie man" talk -- and his camera direction!!!LINK

Mary Curtius and Richard Simon of the Los Angeles Times examine the bill from Sens. Clinton, Kerry, and Boxer, and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones to overhaul the election process -- and the response legislation from Republicans. LINK

The New York Times' Pat Healy returns to the Harvard beat, which nearly netted him a Pulitzer way back when. He and Sara Rimer cover the release of the Larry Summers transcripts, which seem to provide ammunition for the Harvard president's critics and defenders. LINK

In the Boston Herald, Harvard University frosh William Werbel compares President Summers plight to one once suffered by Howard Dean. LINK

In this week's New York Times Magazine, the intrepid Matt Bai catches up for a minute with Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), who tells him that while open to considering the President's Social Security plan, he's not his party's Zell Miller. And while the Democrats have a big job ahead of them defining themselves rather than letting the Republicans do it for them, he's not switching parties.

Media:
Anne Kornblut finds that Ari Fleischer had doubts about Jeff Gannon and said he stopped calling on the man after a while. LINK

Why is it that most savvy Democrats think this story is going away, while some pretty plugged in Republicans say the opposite?