Obama, McCain Spar on Gas Prices, National Security

June 18, 2008— -- We'll know we're past a tipping point in foreign policy if what's old can no longer be made new. (Yes, we are framing another election around 9/11 -- but who's happier this time?)

We'll know we're past a tipping point in energy policy if what's being sold can be made new. (Yes, Sen. John McCain has an ally in President Bush -- for better and/or worse still relevant when he wants to be. Can the GOP turn the gas-price issue to the party's own terms? And does anyone think the Democrats would be able to change course as efficiently, effectively, and extensively?).

We'll know we're reaching a tipping point in the Democratic Party's civil war if there's a second chance for a first (joint) impression. (Only eight more days to let the expectations build!)

We'll know we're at a tipping point in the nation if one party takes a commanding edge in all three of the big-prize battleground states. (A new Quinnipiac poll has one leader -- and it may not be the leader you expect.)

And we'll know we're at a tipping point in the nation's relationship with its presidential spouses if the would-be first ladies can complete their planned makeovers. (Maybe we can just let them settle this race: Cindy McCain's recipes vs. Michelle Obama's pride).

By the numbers in the coverage-shaping Q-poll: It's Sen. Barack Obama across the board, though narrowly, in the big swing states.

He's up 48-42 in Ohio, 52-40 in Pennsylvania, and 47-43 in Florida (!). From the press release out Wednesday morning: "This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states."

By the numbers in the intrigue-building spouses' poll: Michelle Obama's numbers are stronger than Cindy McCain's.

"The early edge is Michelle Obama's, in favorable views and intensity of sentiment alike. But there are sharp differences among groups, and plenty of room to move for the less well-known Cindy McCain," ABC Polling Director Gary Langer writes. "Forty-eight percent of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably, vs. 39 percent for McCain, a 9-point Obama advantage. Slightly more, though, also view Obama unfavorably -- 29 percent vs. McCain's 25 percent."

The wives take center stage this week, with Michelle Obama co-hosting "The View" Wednesday and Cindy McCain traveling to Asia (including Vietnam) for charity work. (ABC News' Kate Snow will have an interview with Mrs. McCain on Thursday's "Good Morning America.")

But first -- some big rhetorical movement. McCain adviser Randy Scheunemann was the first to raise 9/11, arguing that Obama's comments to ABC about the need to prosecute terrorists help make Obama the "perfect manifestation of a Sept. 10 mind-set."

Responded Obama, per ABC's Jake Tapper: "What they are trying to do is what they've done every election cycle, which is to use terrorism as a club to make the American people afraid -- to win elections."

"The exchange marked the general election's first real engagement over the campaign against terrorism and demonstrated that both sides are confident that they have a winning message on the issue," write The Washington Post's Anne Kornblut and Karen DeYoung. "Obama has shown himself far more eager than [Sen. John] Kerry and other Democrats to challenge the Republicans on the issue."

This debate started last week with the Supreme Court decision, and after a slow start Team McCain likes the lay of this land.

"McCain sicced his attack dogs on those [Obama] remarks Tuesday with blog posts, shots by fellow Republicans and a conference call accusing Obama of wanting a law-enforcement-only approach to terrorism and the captives at Gitmo," Michael McAuliff and Richard Sisk write in the New York Daily News.

"Seems like the McCain campaign has been waiting for Sen. Obama to discuss the intersection of terrorism and law enforcement; they were well-prepared to pounce on it as a perfect manifestation of what they believe is Obama's inexperience," Marc Ambinder writes on his Atlantic blog .

It worked in 2004, but: "The Republican argument proved less effective in 2006 when then Bush adviser Karl Rove said the Democrats had a pre-Sept. 11 view of the world and Republicans had a post-Sept. 11 terror attacks perspective. In November of that year, Democrats captured enough congressional seats to seize control of the House and Senate," the AP's Nedra Pickler and Beth Fouhy write.

Obama takes his next step Wednesday: "The Democratic White House hopeful has scheduled the inaugural meeting Wednesday of what he's calling his Senior Working Group on National Security. It includes former members of Congress and high-ranking Clinton Administration officials," per the AP's Pickler.

McCain on Wednesday gets a boost for his energy push: President Bush follows his lead (though the White House won't say that) in reversing his stance on offshore drilling, with a Rose Garden announcement coming Wednesday morning. (Another issue the GOP is hoping to own instead of letting it own the party.)

"President Bush, reversing a longstanding position, will call on Congress on Wednesday to end a federal ban on offshore oil drilling, according to White House officials who say Mr. Bush now wants to work with states to determine where drilling should occur," Sheryl Gay Stolberg writes in The New York Times. "Mr. Bush's father, the first President Bush, signed an executive order in 1990 banning coastal oil exploration, and Mr. Bush's brother Jeb was an outspoken opponent of offshore drilling when he was governor of Florida. Now, though, President Bush is considering repealing his father's order."

On your veep's watch: Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., is right there with him in adopting a new position. "Their switch sets up a battle with environmentalists, as well as with Democratic leaders, most of whom remain opposed to overturning the ban," Stephen Power, Laura Meckler, and Russell Gold write in The Wall Street Journal. "Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential contender, accused Sen. McCain of proposing a policy that would do little to affect gas prices in the short term."

The risks for McCain: Start with inconsistency, and move through the fact that he's still trying to put some distance between himself and the president, while carving a different kind of environmental profile than your typical Republican might enjoy.

He is literally advertising his breaks with his party on climate change.

McCain "is wagering that skyrocketing gas prices have finally reached a tipping point, a threshold moment that has led voters to rethink their strong and long-held opinions against coastal oil exploration," Charles Mahtesian and David Mark write for Politico. "The stakes couldn't be higher: If he is wrong, McCain will have seriously damaged his chances in two key states with thousands of miles of coastline -- California and Florida -- and where opposition to offshore oil drilling has been unwavering."