The Note: Welcoming Gifts

July 21, 2008 -- Someone remember to write down the address, so Sen. Barack Obama can send that thank-you note.

Whatever his motivations, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki did Obama a huge favor with the magazine interview where he seemed to back Obama's plans for Iraq -- offering him a better welcome than if he had been greeted with flowers as a liberator.

One little interview changed the storyline for this portion of the trip -- and boosted Obama's credibility on the subject at hand. Now, it's McCain on the defensive -- needing to explain why he differs from Obama, Maliki -- and maybe even the Bush administration, backers of a "time horizon" (no frames, there) for troop withdrawal.

"In Iraq, controversy continued to reverberate between the United States and Iraqi governments over a weekend news report that Mr. Maliki had expressed support for Mr. Obama's proposal to withdraw American combat troops within 16 months of January," Sabrina Tavernise and Jeff Zeleny write in The New York Times. "The reported comments came after Mr. Bush agreed on Friday to a 'general time horizon' for pulling out troops from Iraq without a specific timeline."

This is hard to walk back: "The following is a direct translation from the Arabic of Mr. Maliki's comments by The Times: 'Obama's remarks that -- if he takes office -- in 16 months he would withdraw the forces, we think that this period could increase or decrease a little, but that it could be suitable to end the presence of the forces in Iraq.' He continued: 'Who wants to exit in a quicker way has a better assessment of the situation in Iraq.' "

This gets the trip off on the right foot: "Senator Obama meets with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad. The two apparently have a lot in common," ABC's Terry Moran reported Monday on "Good Morning America." "Over the weekend, Maliki shocked the Bush White House."

While in Iraq, Obama will be interviewed by Terry Moran for a special edition of "Nightline" Monday -- with portions to be broadcast on "World News" and "Good Morning America" as well.

Maliki's comments may not have been an accident: "Confusion over the Iraqi prime minister's seeming endorsement of Barack Obama's troop withdrawal plan is part of Baghdad's strategy to play U.S. politics for the best deal possible over America's military mission," the AP's Robert H. Reid writes. One goal: To "exploit Obama's position on the war to force the Bush administration into accepting concessions considered unthinkable a few months ago," Reid reports.

Suddenly, Obama's Iraq trip has a much bigger upside: "Washington-Baghdad move to a 'general time horizon' and Maliki's comments have plainly focused the Iraq debate on terms preferred by Obama, just as he is poised to touch down on Iraqi soil," Politico's Jonathan Martin reports.

"Maliki has not specified a time frame, but one of his closest Dawa Party allies has said Obama's plan coincides closely with government thinking," Liz Sly writes in the Chicago Tribune. "The Iraqi government's position is far from unanimous, however, and as with so many things in Iraq, opinion is split along sectarian and political lines."

Unless Maliki reverses himself, McCain is left jousting "with two prominent politicians over when and how to pull troops out of Iraq: Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki," USA Today's David Jackson reports.

(And the venue for McCain's counter-messaging Monday places him squarely in the midst of the Bush legacy. At least he got his baseball right Sunday.)

McCain, on ABC's "Good Morning America" Monday, kept the focus on the surge: "I know that he'll have the opportunity to see the success of the surge," McCain told Diane Sawyer. "He was wrong about the surge. It is succeeding, and we are winning. . . . You don't have to choose to lose in Iraq in order to succeed in Afghanistan."

He added: "If we abandon Iraq and have specific dates for withdrawal -- we would have been out last March, this previous March, if we had done what Sen. Obama wanted to do. He was wrong then, he is wrong now."

On the huge press coverage his rival is receiving, McCain said: "It is what it is."

Obama's luck may not last the week. In Iraq on Monday -- his visits to Baghdad and Basra come 925 days after his last visit to the country -- is doing no harm the same as doing himself some good? (Does that change when the national press corps joins him, later in the day in Jordan?)

On Monday, "Obama was scheduled to meet senior U.S. and Iraqi leaders here, including Gen. David H. Petraeus and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki," per Sudarsan Raghavan of The Washington Post.

"Iraqi leaders are expected to press Obama for more clarity on his long-term vision," the AP's Brian Murphy writes. "Such discussions have added importance since Iraq and U.S. negotiators appear stalled in efforts to reach a long-range pact to define future U.S. military presence and obligations."

Maliki's comments ease the way for the meeting, since they "appear to undercut a key argument from Senator McCain and other Republicans," per the New York Sun's Eli Lake.

"But Mr. Maliki's latest position could present a problem for the Obama campaign, as well," Lake continues. "The senator's plan to withdraw all American combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office has never before been tied to negotiations with the Iraqi government. Should Mr. Maliki revise or refine his remarks to Der Spiegel, the Obama campaign would be faced with an uncomfortable choice: give up its preferred withdrawal plan or tell Iraq's government that as president Mr. Obama would disregard its positions when formulating his Iraq policy."

McCain gets a boost of his own American military leaders. Peter Nicholas and M. Karim Faiez of the Los Angeles Times: "Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an appearance on 'Fox News Sunday' that setting a two-year deadline to pull all troops out of Iraq would not be advisable. 'I think the consequences could be very dangerous in that regard,' Mullen said. 'I'm convinced at this point in time that making reductions based on conditions on the ground are very important.' "

Obama heads from Iraq to Amman, Jordan, on Monday, where he'll be met by members of the national press corps. The media made an overnight journey on the new campaign plane -- "CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN" painted on both sides -- and touched down in Ireland for refueling early Monday, en route to Jordan.

With reporters joining his bubble, this is the real test: "This week Obama will have his words picked apart like never before, and it will be an international audience of not just opponents but actual enemies," ABC's Jake Tapper writes. "They will be watching and waiting to see if he kills any butterflies."

"Any gaffes will be magnified by the monstrous media contingent he's got in tow," Michael Saul writes in the New York Daily News.

"One goal of the trip is to quell doubts about whether the 46-year-old, first-term senator has the background and skills to handle national security concerns in a post-9/11 world of shifting alliances and terrorist threats," USA Today's Kathy Kiely writes. "The risk is that a misstep could enhance those doubts or an overstep create a backlash."