The Note: Tag-Team Time?
Kaine is hot at right (wrong?) time, as veepstakes hits code red (blue?).
July 29, 2008 -- With all the boo-boos the candidates are picking up -- what better time for some reinforcements?
To that end -- surely there's a short list, and surely someone will be chosen from it (or not).
Certainly Sen. Barack Obama will choose first (unless, of course, Sen. John McCain does).
Of course a pick comes before the Olympics (except if it doesn't).
(Similarly -- naturally there was a trip bounce, unless it bounced in the other direction. It just depends on which Gallup poll you buy.)
Obama's top three (if you believe convention wisdom): Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Tim Kaine.
McCain's top three (if you believe McCain believes in conventional wisdom): Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Tom Ridge.
With Obama in Washington with his senior advisers -- after a three-hour meeting with his vetters Monday, and more alleged "gym time" (sore hip and all) Tuesday morning -- veepstakes speculation hits its first code red (or -- remind us again -- does blue go first?) of the season.
Among Obama's meetings Tuesday, per an Obama aide: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, whom he'll sit down with at the Federal Reserve in Washington.
The betting's on Obama to choose first and early -- if only to put as much space as possible between his announcement and his down-time in Hawaii (and to give as much time as possible for jilted Clinton supporters to erupt and get over it in advance of the convention.)
Gov. Kaine, D-Va. -- in Washington Tuesday as well, for his monthly radio interview program, with plenty of time for secret and not-so-secret meetings -- has the mixed blessing of holding the hot hand at the moment that's either exactly right or totally wrong.
"Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has told close associates that he has had 'very serious' conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background," Michael Shear and Shailagh Murray write in The Washington Post, adding that a pick is still probably several weeks away.
"Several people who have spoken to Kaine said he has talked about the seriousness of the possibility," they write. "One said Kaine has stressed that there are other top candidates but described his discussions with the campaign as 'very serious.' "
(What message does it send to Obamaland that people close to the Last Virginian Standing are talking?)
"Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has emerged as one of the campaign's potential finalists," Ben Smith and Amie Parnes write for Politico. "Kaine, an early Obama supporter whose biography nicely dovetails with the Illinois senator's, 'ranks very, very high on the short list,' said a source who has spoken recently to senior Obama aides about Kaine."
ABC's Jan Crawford Greenburg puts Kaine on Obama's "very short list"; good luck, governor, moving around these next few days.
The Obama comment that set the tongues wagging: "I'm going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country; where we need to go -- that we've got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how politics works, how business is done in Washington," Obama said on "Meet the Press" Sunday.
"Any of that could apply to Kaine," Pete Brodnitz, Kaine's pollster, tells Jeff E. Shapiro of the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
As for who those who won't be getting a rose -- Obama's team is making clear the candidate is wide awake, if he was ever dreaming at all.
"There is mounting evidence that Mr. Obama's interest in Mrs. Clinton for the post has faded considerably, if, in fact, she ever really was a strong contender to be on the ticket with him," Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times. "Mr. Obama's advisers discuss Mrs. Clinton's role at the Democratic convention next month in a way that suggests they are not thinking of her arriving in Denver as Mr. Obama's running mate. . . . She has not been asked to provide written documentation to the committee vetting the background of candidates for Mr. Obama."
Leading your cheer (the emerging chorus of boos?): Terry McAuliffe, indefatigable (and also a Kaine fan, you'll recall): "How do you not ask Hillary Clinton?" McAuliffe asked Monday morning on MSNBC. "If Sen. Obama picks Hillary Clinton, we will win this White House, I believe, in a cakewalk. And I think we'd control this White House for 16 years." (Do the math, and you'll see where Terry is coming from.)
McCain's selection buzz has subsided a bit -- but the anti-Romney forces have their acts together. "Prominent evangelical leaders are warning Sen. John McCain against picking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as his running mate, saying their troops will abandon the Republican ticket on Election Day if that happens," Ralph Z. Hallow writes in the Washington Times.
This may be more telling: "In conversations with The Times, several Republican officials close to the McCain campaign also played down anti-Romney sentiment among conservative evangelicals," Hallow writes. "They cited an online poll of evangelicals by 2000 presidential primary candidate Gary Bauer that found Mr. Romney is the top vice-presidential choice of born-again Christians."
Regarding Obama's Tuesday: "Keep an eye on. . . whether Obama has any side meetings with Hill-types that would signal any movement on the vice presidential front," per ABC's Karen Travers and Gregory Wallace.
(He was in workout clothes when he hit the Washington Sports Club Tuesday morning with body man Reggie Love -- and didn't appear to have to flash his membership card, per the pool report.)
As the principles heal a bit -- what of the post-trip assessment?
Gallup's daily tracking has Obama up eight -- that's a bit of a bump.
But in the USA Today/Gallup Poll (yes, still Gallup) he's up only three among registered voters, and is DOWN four among likely voters (think young voters need to show up for him?). That's a bump on the head.
Could it be that nothing has excited McCain's base like Obama's trip?
"Republican John McCain gained ground in a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll that found Democrat Barack Obama's highly publicized foreign trip has not broadened confidence in his ability to be commander of the U.S. military," Jill Lawrence writes for USA Today. "The poll, taken Friday through Sunday, showed a surge since last month in likely Republican voters and suggested Obama's trip may have helped energize voters who favor McCain."