The Note: Guys and Polls

August 20, 2008 -- Whether or not a pronoun tipped a hand . . . or Joementum is back . . . or Ralph Nader's advice matters . . . or the schedule means anything . . . or Joe Biden is or isn't the guy . . . the race looks markedly different than it did just a few weeks ago, even before any running mates join us for the ride.

Between the aftermath of his foreign trip and his Hawaii vacation -- and the new, crisp (if juvenile) messaging from Sen. John McCain -- Sen. Barack Obama has lost his swagger in the race.

Now it's Obama who's having trouble driving a sustained message -- subsumed by his own veepstakes fog, even while he continues to see himself defined by outside forces and events.

(McCain meanwhile, plays a dangerous veepstakes game: If the first rule for a running mate is to do no harm, is it possible that McCain is harming himself even without making a choice?)

As he prepares for a return to the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., Saturday (when he'll finally have company), the race is still more about Obama than it is about McCain.

But Obama caps a summer slide with a big national poll that reminds us that this race is just about tied. (Mark this down a convention storyline -- one that raises the stakes of all of Denver's mini-dramas.)

The Bloomberg/LA Times poll has it Obama 45, McCain 43, among registered voters. That's a tie race, folks.

"John McCain has begun rallying dispirited Republicans behind him, while Democratic rival Barack Obama has made scant progress building new support, leaving the presidential race statistically tied," Michael Finnegan writes in the Los Angeles Times.

Think the McCain strategy is working? "Obama's favorable rating . . . has slid from 59% to 48% since the June poll. At the same time, his negative rating has risen from 27% to 35%. The bulk of that shift stems from Republicans souring on Obama amid ferocious attacks on the Democrat by McCain and his allies."

Among the trouble spots: "More than eight out of 10 voters say McCain's patriotism is strong, compared with just 55 percent for Obama," Bloomberg's Catherine Dodge and Heidi Przybyla report. "Overall, McCain has a slight edge on the question of honesty and integrity, while more than three times as many voters say Obama would change the way things are done in Washington."

A hallmark of the Obama operation has been its self-confidence. Outside events, public polls, intra-party sniping -- all of it is essentially ignored in Chicago. That's why the plan hasn't changed -- but should it?

When is keeping a secret bad for the message? When everyone knows there's a secret being kept.

"The fog of speculation over who will accompany Sen. Barack Obama down the aisle in Denver has obscured his message," ABC's Andy Fies reports. "There are no doubt compelling reasons for the time it has taken Obama to choose his running mate. The question is, has he paid a price for his deliberateness?"

He's taken a pounding from McCain, and Obama is starting to hit back -- though that, too, carries repercussions.

The storyline of a more-aggressive Obama has now taken hold. Now look for GOPers to tie that to the tightening of the polls. "Celebrities like him aren't used to being challenged like this," one Republican operative tells The Note.

Everyone is starting to notice the ads that were supposed to fly under the radar.

"Senator Barack Obama has started a sustained and hard-hitting advertising campaign against Senator John McCain in states that will be vital this fall, painting Mr. McCain in a series of commercials as disconnected from the economic struggles of the middle class," Jim Rutenberg writes in The New York Times. "The negative spots reflect the sharper tone Mr. Obama has struck in recent days on the stump as he heads into his party's nominating convention in Denver next week, and seem to address the anxiety among some Democrats that Mr. Obama has not answered a volley of attacks by Mr. McCain with enough force."

"Quietly negative," says Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group. Adds Rutenberg: "The spots have clear potential to undercut Mr. Obama's promise to remain above the fray of what he calls 'the same old Washington games.' "

"The negative ads, running in 18 states, hew to themes that Democrats and groups allied with the party have been hitting for months," Noam Levey reports in the Los Angeles Times. "But they mark a change for the Obama campaign, which until recently concentrated its advertising money on casting the freshman Illinois senator in a positive glow. . . . Obama's negative turn, however, runs the risk of undermining his promise to bring change to the political system. It may also compete with the candidate's other messages, namely that he is ready to be commander in chief."

And the vaunted money edge Obama has expected? Well, not so much: When you include party money, McCain and Obama finished July just about tied.

Newsweek's Andrew Romano: "A tied race is better news -- at this point -- for McCain than it is for Obama. Why? Because on Sept. 4, the Republican nominee -- who opted into the public financing system--will receive a check from U.S. taxpayers for $84.1 million. Obama won't."

It means McCain can dwarf Obama's spending for the rest of August (he has to spend his primary money by then) and then comes an even bigger advantage: "For the final two months of the campaign, McCain will be able to stop detouring from the trail to attend private fundraisers, relying instead on $42 million a month in public funds plus an estimated $130 million from the RNC to see him through," Romano writes.

After the rise: "The Obama campaign and its media handmaidens are taking their candidate way too seriously," Michael Goodwin writes in his New York Daily News column. "So much so that they could be setting up a backlash against the hype. No human being can meet the wildly inflated expectations that accompany the rookie senator's every move."

Even his hair is showing the wear and tear: "When the critics paint you as green, maybe gray isn't so bad," Michael Saul write in the New York Daily News.

The sun is shining on McCain now, too: "On Tuesday, his luck improved. Hurricane Fay stayed well to the southeast, giving McCain clear skies for the hour-long helicopter flight to the Genesis oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico," Perry Bacon Jr. and Michael Shear report in The Washington Post.

Said McCain: "When I'm president, there will be a whole lot more like this, not only here in the Gulf but also off of our East and West coasts."

(New Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday: "Americans favor 62-32 percent drilling for oil in currently protected offshore areas.")

One more pressure point (a wacky Rodham brother is back): "A brother of New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and local Democrats who backed her unsuccessful presidential campaign socialized privately Monday with a top surrogate of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain," Borys Krawczeniuk reports in the Scranton Times-Tribune.

"The private gathering featured Carly Fiorina, Mr. McCain's top economic adviser, and took place at the Dunmore home of political consultant Jamie Brazil, a longtime friend of Mrs. Clinton's family who has signed on as paid national director of Mr. McCain's Citizens for McCain Coalition," he continues. "The attendees included Tony Rodham, Mrs. Clinton's youngest sibling, his wife, Megan, and their two children; attorney Kathleen Granahan Kane, who coordinated Mrs. Clinton's presidential campaign in Northeast Pennsylvania during the primary election; and Virginia McGregor, sister of Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty."