The Note: Mom vs. Messiah

Sept. 10, 2008— -- Perhaps Gov. Sarah Palin is still a normal human politician -- as opposed to a superhero/phenomenon/celebrity (irony alert!) who is immune to the whims of such trivial matters as national media coverage.

But as she returns to her native Alaska on Wednesday -- with swarming Democrats and out-of-town reporters making the landscape a tad less familiar -- she is a full-blown sensation whose appeal seems to grow as the country gets to know her -- good, bad, and everything in between.

If it's The Mom vs. The Messiah -- what does recent American electoral history tell you about who might have the edge among the Wal-Mart crowd? One of Us, or One of Them?

(Will a campaign that beat one female candidate because it understood how the Democratic base thinks wind up losing to another female candidate because it doesn't understand how the electorate as a whole thinks?)

(And will Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Joe Biden fall into tabloid traps at the very time they need to lock down female voters?)

The campaign has grown sharper -- and there's no putting lipstick on this fact: "The emergence of Sarah Palin as a political force in the presidential race has left many top Democrats fretting that, just two weeks after their convention ended on an emotional high, Barack Obama's campaign has suddenly lost its stride," Peter Wallsten and Janet Hook write in the Los Angeles Times.

"Some Democrats are now worried about the perils of Obama's strategy, saying that his campaign, instead of engaging the Alaska governor, should avoid any move that draws more attention to her and could enhance her appeal among the white, blue-collar voters who remain cool to Obama's candidacy," they write.

"Democrats are beginning to worry about losing the presidential election," Bloomberg's Heidi Przybyla writes. "Their best week in four years," says Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., of the Republicans' latest stretch.

Adds Przybyla: "Democrats said Obama can respond by capitalizing on his significant lead on issues, particularly the economy and health care, including among many independents who have become the chief target of both campaigns now that the candidates have locked in their parties' nominations."

This is the time Obama hoped to be defining himself -- his campaign book, "Change We Can Believe In," has just started shipping out, and is rocketing up the Amazon charts.

The upside of insularity: There's no panic in Obamaland. The downside of insularity: There's no panic in Obamaland.

Even with all the Palin scrutiny -- don't forget how many investigative reporters in Alaska right now want to file something juicy (and new details emerge Thursday about library books and that fired state trooper -- more on those below) -- Obama is in an uncomfortable spot.

"Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has found himself in a position he hasn't been in during many long months of campaigning -- on defense against Republican rival John McCain," the AP's Nedra Pickler writes.

It's Obama-Biden 46, McCain-Palin 45, in the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll -- and a 52-41 McCain edge among white women, in a jump that roughly mirrors the ABC News/Washington Post poll released a day earlier.

"Sen. John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate has shaken up the presidential race, lifting enthusiasm among his once-subdued supporters and boosting the ticket's appeal with women, rural voters and Southerners," Laura Meckler writes in The Wall Street Journal. "The survey also had good news for Sen. Obama, showing that he improved his standing with the electorate in areas where he had been seen as weak."

Cautions pollster Peter Hart: "The faster they rise, the steeper the descent."

But that rise says something about Obama's pull (or lack thereof) among female voters: "Frankly, it's because they are conflicted on Obama," Geoff Garin, Hillary Clinton's former chief strategist, tells Time's Karen Tumulty. "They'd like to vote for a Democrat, but they're not sure Obama is the one." (As The One met The Other One?)

Writes Tumulty: "Whether this is merely a blip or a real trend has yet to be determine."

Howard Wolfson says don't panic: "My hope, and expectation, is that Team Obama will remain as disciplined and focused as they have been throughout the campaign's entirety and avoid getting thrown off their game," he writes at his New Republic blog. "It's funny, the same DC wiseguys who confidently predicted a McCain Convention bump ten days ago are now running about waving their arms in the air nervously now that the bump has arrived."

Yet watch the map shrink: "Tightening voter polls, a more competitive money race than originally envisioned and a McCain campaign invigorated by his unconventional vice-presidential pick are prompting a return to the old political map -- and a grudging concession by some Obama campaign operatives that certain states once deemed winnable may be more of a long shot than once thought," Christopher Cooper and Elizabeth Holmes write in The Wall Street Journal.

The truth is there isn't much time for pushback: "More than 30 states allow some form of early voting, forcing the campaigns to deal with a rolling series of Election Days," per The New York Times' Adam Nagourney. "Given the truncated general election season, campaign aides said they were going to have make triage decisions sooner about what states the nominees are actually going to compete in. The ambitious battleground presented by Mr. Obama's aides, of at least 18 states, may soon get whittled down in deference to a calendar that does not leave that many days for campaigning."

Time to fight? "Here's what I've been feeling for a while: Whoever slipped that Valium into Barack Obama's coffee needs to be found and arrested by the Democrats because Obama has gone from cool to cold," Tom Friedman writes in his New York Times column.

"Somebody needs to tell Obama that if he wants the chance to calmly answer the phone at 3 a.m. in the White House, he is going to need to start slamming down some phones at 3 p.m. along the campaign trail," Friedman writes. "I like much of what he has to say, especially about energy, but I don't think people are feeling it in their guts, and I am a big believer that voters don't listen through their ears. They listen through their stomachs."

"There's anxiety developing because of a perceived lack of aggressiveness," Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., an early Obama supporter, tells The Hill's Alexander Bolton.

Is he getting the message? "A new character is making a debut at Senator Barack Obama's campaign rallies: His name is John McCain," Jeff Zeleny writes in The New York Times. "With just 57 days remaining in this long presidential race, Mr. Obama is going after Mr. McCain more aggressively than at any other point in the campaign, with a professorial tone giving way to one of prosecution. These days, he sounds more like those sharp-tongued commercials seen on television."