The Note: The Gambler

Sept. 25, 2008— -- There was no bailout coming for Sen. John McCain's campaign. So he tried to create his own.

McCain's move is a gamble, something of a gimmick -- and something that only a campaign headed in the wrong direction might do. But for a campaign trying to project "country first," there may not be a better chance to live the message.

Whether or not there's a deal and therefore a debate, McCain dealt himself back into the biggest issue of the campaign.

A day of candidate phone tag -- capped by asking for a debate rain check -- put Sen. Barack Obama on defense at least for the moment, leaving him (perhaps awkwardly, perhaps elegantly) defending politics while McCain talks policy.

As of Thursday morning, McCain aides tell ABC News that the candidate isn't going to Mississippi Friday unless a deal on the bailout bill is in place -- though the prospects of such a deal are looking up.

Maybe he's seen, ultimately, as nudging things along. But is this a measure that McCain wants to be witnessed touching?

"John McCain is a gambler by nature, and the bet he placed Wednesday may be among the biggest of his political life," Dan Balz writes in The Washington Post. "What he risks, if things don't go as he hopes, is a judgment by voters that his move was a reckless act by an impetuous and struggling politician that hardened partisan lines in Washington at just the wrong moment and complicated efforts to deal with the biggest financial crisis in more than half a century."

It's the surge all over again: McCain now owns a policy that's viewed with fierce skepticism, even (and especially) by members of his own party. It's not that he hasn't been here before -- it's that he hasn't been here before this close to an election.

Did someone mention a gamble? "Faced with unfavorable odds in the presidential campaign, John McCain time and again finds a way to roll the dice," Peter Wallsten and Peter Nicholas write for the Los Angeles Times. "And, like naming a running mate untested on the national stage, it carries risks: Will voters view McCain's move as decisive, or unsteady, or even as an overtly partisan act to gain traction on an issue that he said Wednesday should transcend partisanship?"

"Bold or bonkers," reads the New York Daily News headline.

Not taking sides, former President Bill Clinton said on ABC's "Good Morning America" McCain's request was made in "good faith" -- and said if Friday's debate does happen, some economy talk would be warranted.

"You could put it off a few days -- the problem is it's hard to reschedule those things," Clinton told Chris Cuomo. "I presume [McCain requested a delay] in good faith, since I know he wanted -- I remember he asked for more debates, to go all around the country." (He's always had a good memory.)

Now, with Thursday's meeting at the White House (Obama is coming to Washington after all -- did McCain win Round One?), we have three presidents. Ask the one who still lives in the White House about the joys of the job.

"It puts them directly on the line over an issue whose politics are mutating almost by the hour, forcing them to balance a sense that the country is angry about the prospect of being stuck with the bill for Wall Street's excesses against a chance that failure to act quickly could have dire economic consequences," Michael Cooper writes in The New York Times.

"Whatever the risk, Senators McCain and Obama were all-in by the end of the day Wednesday," Cooper writes. "The politics are especially complex for Mr. McCain, who took the bigger gamble earlier in the day by assertively claiming a leadership role."

Does anyone think that bringing campaigns into the negotiating room will help negotiations? And do negotiators need the fate of the first presidential debate added to the agenda?

"It was unclear whether the return of Sens. McCain and Obama to the capital would provide the jolt needed to reach a bipartisan deal that gives cover to politicians of both parties. And it was unclear who would benefit most from the new jockeying between the presidential contenders," The Wall Street Journal's Laura Meckler, Elizabeth Holmes and Christopher Cooper report.

"Mr. McCain's actions not only cast doubt on whether the highly anticipated debate would come off, but also thrust an unpredictable new element into the negotiations for the bailout, with some Democrats warning that Mr. McCain's intervention could derail progress being made on the rescue package," Elisabeth Bumiller and Jeff Zeleny report in The New York Times.

"The fast-moving developments sent behind-the-scenes talks on Capitol Hill colliding with a fierce presidential campaign now heading into its final five weeks," Susan Page and Kathy Kiely write for USA Today. "McCain's move -- praised by some Republicans as a sign of leadership, ridiculed by Democrats as grandstanding -- was a gamble that might recast a slipping campaign. It also could affect what is likely to be the biggest bailout in U.S. history."

But things are close: "We're heading towards a deal today," ABC's George Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America" Thursday. "You've got so many of the major players now bought into the idea that you have to have a solution. . . . If the framework is put into place today, there will be a debate tomorrow."

As negotiations resume on the Hill Thursday morning, it's looking good: "Senior lawmakers and Bush administration officials have cleared away key obstacles to a deal on the unprecedented rescue, agreeing to include widely supported limits on pay packages for executives whose companies benefit," the AP's Julie Hirschfeld Davis reports.

Whether or not a deal happens Thursday, McCain was not operating from a position of strength here: Recall that the campaign's message earlier in the day was focused on why the new ABC News/Washington Post poll showing Obama plus-9 (and plus-24 on the economy) was wrong.

"It reflects not only the deep concerns of Republican and Democratic leaders about the grave state of the economy, but also the shifting dynamics in a presidential contest that polls suggest has swung in Obama's favor," Scott Helman reports in The Boston Globe. "Voters' focus on the Wall Street crisis and the economy -- long an advantage for Obama -- has helped give him an edge this week nationally and in key battleground states."

"It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

"Make no mistake: there is a reason that the guy behind in the polls did this," Howard Wolfson blogs for The New Republic.

Is the gambler trying to walk (or run) away? "It's hard to imagine that the most useful thing for everyone involved wouldn't be to hear, in clear terms, and at length, just what McCain and Obama think about the whole mess," Todd Purdum writes for Vanity Fair.