The Note: Sarah Six-Pack

Oct. 1, 2008— -- As three of the four folks on the tickets return to their day jobs Wednesday, pay attention to the fact that the fourth candidate has cracked open "Joe Six-Pack" in time for her cramming sessions.

Don't look now -- but has the race's outline been written? Blame it on the big things that are larger than the candidates -- the economic crisis, President Bush's historically awful approval ratings, the inability of any senator to soar in a period of national angst -- but where we stand today is essentially where we stood six weeks ago..

Which is one reason why that fourth candidate matters now more than ever. Gov. Sarah Palin puts herself on the line in Thursday's debate -- and will there be another single moment that's as big for the tenor of this race? Will there be another chance to shoot holes through the old outline and field dress a new one?

(How much of her performance will depend on who gets to set expectations -- "Saturday Night Live" or the mainstream media -- raising Palin's bar before our eyes?)

If this qualifies as daylight in the race, maybe we should get ready for a long night. The new ABC News/Washington Post poll speaks to an odd sort of stability that's set in despite shifts among independent voters -- resulting in a narrow but consistent lead for Sen. Barack Obama.

Obama saw his White Sox beat the Twins 1-0 to squeak into the playoffs Tuesday. But even very late leads can change.

"Barack Obama maintains an advantage on the economy, especially economic empathy, and he's cracked majority acceptance on his key challenge, experience. But the political center remains unrooted, keeping John McCain in the race, albeit against headwinds," ABC polling director Gary Langer writes.

"Movement continues among independents, quintessential swing voters and a highly changeable group this year," Langer writes. "They favored McCain by 10 points immediately after the Republican convention, swung to Obama last week and stand now at a close division between the two -- 48 percent for McCain, 45 percent for Obama in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll."

It's Obama 50, McCain 46 among likely voters -- looking closer than the nine points the poll pegged the race at a week ago, despite a debate where more respondents said Obama won.

And how do you play this? "Voters are deeply divided over the terms of the government's $700 billion economic rescue package but overwhelmingly fear that the House's rejection of the measure on Monday could deepen the country's financial woes," Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write in The Washington Post.

Key insight? "Compared with a June poll, slightly more voters now call Obama a safe choice than said so of McCain (55 percent to 51 percent). Obama ticked up from 50 percent to 55 percent over past three months on that question, with the increase almost entirely among Democrats. McCain dropped from 57 percent to 51 percent, with independents contributing to the decline."

Obama does hit 50 again, and there's a psychological burden that comes with such polling: Obama winning means people getting used to the fact that Obama might win

"The equilibrium of this race seems to be Obama with a slight lead and this will soon begin to lock in. And with early voting starting soon in some states, every day Obama holds a lead means votes in the can," Matthew Dowd writes in his ABCNews.com blog.

Which puts the pressure on Palin -- and inspires a new Dowd rule: "When partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course. . . . At this point, this race is Obama's to lose, and absent a significant mistake it will be tough for McCain to win."

More from the 50-plus world: New Quinnipiac University numbers out Wednesday morning.

OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 42
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54, McCain 39
FLORIDA (!): Obama 51, McCain 43

From the release: "Friday's presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today."

(GOP pushback: "These polls are laughable. We hope Obama think they're true," says a Republican with close ties to the campaign.)

Look who gets this story now: "John McCain's fade in recent polls, combined with a barrage of negative news coverage during the financial crisis, has leading Republican activists around the country worrying about his prospects and urging his campaign to become much more aggressive against Barack Obama in the remaining month before Election Day," Politico's Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin report.

"But as September turns to October -- Wednesday marks 34 days to the Nov. 4 election -- it is clear McCain himself is to blame for the most urgent problems," they write. "His snap decision to throw himself into the bailout debate has proven disastrous, since his efforts looked late and half-hearted, and many in the GOP ignored his pleas in Monday's House vote. And his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, initially a political boon, has become a distraction inside and out of the campaign, with top staff now sidelined trying to avoid a debate disaster on Thursday night."

Does this look like a man who's happy to be here (or happy to see his running mate become the issue in the race? "You and I have a fundamental disagreement, and I'm so happy the American people seem to be siding with me," a testy McCain tells the Des Moines Register editorial board, pressed on whether Palin has the experience to be president. "Now, if there's a Georgetown cocktail-party person who, quote, calls himself a conservative who doesn't like her, good luck. Good luck."

(Speaking of: George Will tells the Senate Press Secretaries Association that Palin is "obviously not qualified to be President," describing her Katie Couric interviews as a "disaster," Huffington Post's Sam Stein reports.)

Ah yes, Thursday night. Palin has a new pitch to debut: "It's time that normal Joe Six-Pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency, and I think that that's kind of taken some people off guard, and they're out of sorts, and they're ticked off about it," Palin said Tuesday on Hugh Hewitt's radio program. "But it's motivation for John McCain and I to work that much harder to make sure that our ticket is victorious, and we put government back on the side of the people of Joe Six-Pack like me."

Talking policy with Couric . . . "Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin stood by her opposition to abortion even in cases of rape or incest and her skepticism that global warming is caused by human activity, but she stepped back from her past support for teaching creationism in the schools," per The Washington Post write-up.

One artful answer, on what newspapers and magazines she reads: "I've read most of them." Specifically? "Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me over all these years," Palin said.

One of my best friends? "I have one of my absolute best friends for the last 30 years who happens to be gay and I love her dearly," Palin said.

She's as worried about the economy as the next gal, but maybe she needn't be: "A check of financial records, though, shows the Palins live anything but a common life when compared with their fellow residents of their hometown of Wasilla," Jerry Seper writes in the Washington Times. "Their combined income of nearly a quarter-million dollars last year was five times the median household income for Wasilla's 7,000 residents. They own a single-engine plane, two boats, two personal watercraft and a half-million-dollar, custom-built home on a lake that is worth three times the average of other homes in town."
More debate prep, sort of, in answering e-mail questions posed by her hometown newspaper, The Frontiersman (in her most extensive interview -- if you want to call it that -- since joining the ticket).