The Note: Tone Check

Oct. 13, 2008— -- These next three weeks -- and, perhaps, the next three decades or so of legacies -- comes down to a simple question: What does Johnny want?

Yes, he wants to be president. But underneath that question, things get trickier.

Does he want to run against Barack Obama or Barack Hussein Obama? (Is that choice still his?)

Will the campaign tone be set by John McCain himself, or McCain's party, some of McCain's strongest supporters, or McCain's running mate? (Which of those dogs pack the meanest bite?) Does he put forward a new, tax-cutting economic proposal to train his focus on the only dominant issue that's out there? (Answer Monday morning: No -- he'd still rather turn the page.)

Is McCain willing to lose a reputation to win a campaign? (And how many of his allies -- up to and including Sarah Palin -- know they have reputations that extend far beyond 2008?)

The Republican nominee trots out another new closing message Monday -- McCain the fighting underdog. "We've got them just where we want them," he plans to say Monday.

But he needs to break through is own clutter: Mixed messaging from his allies; a missing message on the campaign's big issue; a base that's threatening to bolt; a schedule that leaves him playing defense (in Virginia Monday); a running mate who's still answering (or not) key questions; a staff that's squabbling over the next move; a country that seems to be turning on him.

John McCain is, at this moment, losing: With a 90 percent wrong-track number, and President Bush beating Richard Nixon's low, it's Obama 53, McCain 43 in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

"Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936," ABC polling director Gary Langer reports. The Palin pop is long gone: "Just 29 percent of his own supporters are 'very enthusiastic' about [McCain's] campaign, the fewest since August and down a sharp 17 points from his post-convention peak."

Three weeks out, "the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits," Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen write in The Washington Post. "Recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee." And: "Among the reasons McCain's path to victory seems steeper is that the percentage of 'movable' voters continues to shrink."

Does he still have a chance? "The magnitude of Mr. McCain's task may leave him depending on a misstep by Mr. Obama or a national security crisis rather than on what he can achieve through speeches, advertising or a winning performance in the final debate on Wednesday," John Harwood writes in The New York Times.

Says former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd: "At this point . . . the campaign is totally out of John McCain's hands."

ABC's George Stephanopoulos looks at polls showing the debates as a boost to Obama's prospects, leaving Wednesday's debate at Hofstra University as McCain's last shot for a big win.

"It's really John McCain's last chance, though I wonder how much he can do to help himself at this point," Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America" Monday. "He'll be tempted to go hard on the attack, but that could end up hurting him more than helping him in this environment."

Among the confident Democrats: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.: "I think we are headed toward a very big win, and for the right reason. We're headed for a big win because the economy is in crisis. I think the American . . . voter rightly has more confidence in the Democratic Party to fix the problems that we are facing," Clinton told ABC's Kate Snow on "GMA."

(Asked if Palin has been treated by a different standard than she has, Clinton didn't engage: "Each of us gets plenty of criticism by the press. I think that kind of goes with the territory. But I think Joe Biden did a great job in that debate. . . . )

Cue a new McCain tone (again): McCain aides say his Monday speech is part of his closing push, focusing on "the need for Americans to evaluate and consider the new direction this country must take, and which candidate has the proven record, experience and readiness to deliver against growing challenges."

From the advance excerpts provided to ABC (no mention of Bill Ayers, or any new economic proposals): "We have 22 days to go. We're 6 points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them."

"What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I've never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."

(When does it get too late to hit restart?)

Gov. Sarah Palin, too, is dialing it back. Per ABC's Ron Claiborne and Imtiyaz Delawala, Palin spoke for more than 90 minutes at an outdoor rally Sunday and almost apologized for her tougher lines: "It's not negative and it's not mean-spirited in a campaign for me to ask you to check out our opponent's record, and I would ask you to check out our opponent's record on a couple of the legislative opportunities that Barack Obama has had to reflect his feelings on the same issue that I just talked about," Palin said. "I'm not being negative, not mean-spirited, but please check out his record on partial birth abortion and on the Child Born-Alive Act, and I'll let you judge for yourself."

Meanwhile, new messaging from the Obama campaign Monday: It's Obama's "economic rescue plan for the middle class," with an early afternoon speech in Toledo, Ohio, fleshing out the proposal he put forward in a New York Daily News op-ed Sunday.

Talk of a new economic plan by McCain has fizzled. "Despite signals that Senator John McCain would have new prescriptions for the economic crisis after a weekend of meetings, his campaign said Sunday that Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, would not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some," Jackie Calmes reports in The New York Times. "The signs of internal confusion came as the campaign was under pressure from state party leaders to sharpen his message on the economy and at least blunt the advantage that Democrats traditionally have on the issue in hard times."

Politico's Mike Allen: "Presented with 30 options for new economic measures, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has -- at least for now -- chosen none of them."

Who would ever get such an idea? "It will be a very comprehensive approach to jump-start the economy by allowing capital to be formed easier in America by lowering taxes," Sen. Lindsey Graham, R.-S.C., said Sunday on "Face the Nation."

Why it might have been the right idea: "A clear correlation has emerged in the U.S. presidential campaign: When the Standard & Poor's 500 Index drops, Barack Obama's stock rises," Bloomberg's Michael Tackett writes.

Surely McCain has to do something, and one thing may be better than three. "Republican leaders said Saturday that they were worried Mr. McCain was heading for defeat unless he brought stability to his presidential candidacy and settled on a clear message to counter Senator Barack Obama," Adam Nagourney and Elisabeth Bumiller write in the Sunday New York Times.