The Note: Long Island Sounds

Oct. 15, 2008— -- HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. -- This night, at least, they won't be far apart.

As the big shots gather for one final time in the longest time that's been the 2008 campaign, cue the careless talk over which strangers will make an appearance: Bill Ayers? Tony Rezko? The John McCain that Sarah Palin has been hoping for? The Barack Obama that Hillary Clinton had been hoping for?

But you may be right that there's a bigger question forming a storm front over Long Island Wednesday: Does any of it matter?

So it goes like this: McCain is caught in the worst kind of no man's land 20 days out, behind by just enough for it to keep him out of range of a second wind. Obama is not the angry young man, and he has answered the question of whether he belongs on the same stage as McCain.

McCain's attacks (and those he might yet launch) are under the complex pressure of mixed messaging (maybe that's not his style) and fears of backlash (don't ask me why).

It's Obama who, from the previous encounters, derived the most benefit -- as reflected by the polls (14 points in the latest NYT/CBS numbers), and the race's psychology.

And the build-up over what strategy McCain will employ makes that a story regardless: Either he finally attacks, and risks looking desperate, or he doesn't, and risks looking like he senses that he sees the lights going out.

"Every indication -- including a New York Times/CBS News poll released Tuesday that showed Mr. Obama vaulting to a significant lead -- suggests that Mr. Obama has succeeded in erasing many of those doubts [about his candidacy], primarily through the debates," Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times.

"Mr. McCain is highly unlikely to let this third and final debate -- the last time in the campaign that he will command an audience anywhere near this size -- pass without a fight," Nagourney writes. "Still, history suggests that barring a major mistake by Mr. Obama -- who has over this year not made many -- or some startling new attack or appeal by Mr. McCain, it will be hard to erase the impressions that Mr. Obama left in the first two debates."

As for Ayers: "Speaking to a St. Louis radio station on Tuesday, John McCain said that Barack Obama's recent suggestion that McCain does not have guts to raise the Bill Ayers issue to his face 'probably ensured' that the former Weather Underground leader will come up in Wednesday's final presidential debate," per ABC's Ron Claiborne, Teddy Davis, and Arnab Datta.

Said McCain: "I was astonished to hear him say that he was surprised for me to have the guts to do that. Because the fact is that the question did not come up in that fashion so -- you know -- I think he's probably ensured that it will come up this time."

Will a mere mention mean anything this late? Recall that the real impact of Hillary Clinton's most aggressive debate ("slumlord" Rezko) was that it shaped the press coverage going forward. That came in January, with a full primary season still ahead of us. We're now in mid-October.

What's a maverick to do? "He does have to draw some blood on Barack Obama, but if he goes too negative, he'll reinforce perceptions . . . that he's the one on the attack," ABC's George Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America" Wednesday.

Unless he does something dramatic -- a one-term pledge, a bipartisan Cabinet announcement, a challenge for more debates -- "there's not a whole lot he can do at this point to change the dynamic in one debate," Stephanopoulos said.

Did someone mention pressure? "The presidential debate at Hofstra University is McCain's last, best chance to shake up a race where everything -- the map, the money and the momentum -- is moving solidly toward Barack Obama," Newsday's Craig Gordon writes.

"McCain's job is twofold and markedly more complex, Republicans say -- raise sharp questions about Obama to sow doubts about his readiness to lead, while also offering a detailed vision for pulling the nation out of an economic crisis," Gordon writes. "What worries some McCain backers is that that was the Arizona senator's exact playbook for the first two debates, and both times, McCain fell short."

This is it: "This may be his last best hope to turn it around," ABC's David Wright reported on "GMA."

"John McCain has pulled a rabbit out of a hat before over the course of his career, but this is going to be a rather large rabbit out of a very small hat," says former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. "Once the debate is held John McCain's destiny is no longer in his hands."

The final debate is about more than scoring points and checking boxes -- it's about trying to change the direction of a solidifying race.

"It is Obama's almost preternatural calm that will be John McCain's main obstacle at Wednesday night's final presidential debate," Time's Mark Halperin writes. "In order to change the dynamic, McCain will have to produce a major memorable moment at the expense of his rival -- by forcing an error, exposing a flaw or unattractive trait, or revealing an inconsistency or weakness -- which would then be replayed incessantly on the airwaves, rapaciously dissected by the media, and seized upon by the public."

The argument for pulling punches: "To paraphrase the wise old song, dignity is just another word for nothing left to lose. McCain might lose the election, but he doesn't have to lose his reputation in the process," Halperin writes.

Along those lines -- McCain's brother, Joe, is among those lobbying for the McCain campaign to "Let John McCain be John McCain. "Make ads that show John not as crank and curmudgeon but as a great leader for his time," Joe McCain wrote in a missive to top campaign and party officials late Monday, The Baltimore Sun's Paul West reports.

"The debates are making a difference," Republican pollster Neil Newhouse tells West, "but they are making the difference for Barack Obama, not necessarily for John McCain."

Anyone else having trouble keeping track? "The new McCain . . . appears to have some of his supporters pining for the old version, the one who would bring up Bill Ayers and challenge his opponent's character more directly, asking, conspiratorially, 'Who is Barack Obama?' You know, the McCain from last week," Salon's Mike Madden writes.

"A good rule, for anyone scoring at home, might be this: If you find yourself bored while watching the debate, Obama is probably winning," Madden continues. "But for McCain, a lot of fireworks, if he deploys them badly, might turn out to mean the same thing."

Among the other charges Wednesday: "Tonight's presidential debate presents Republican John McCain with perhaps his last chance to reverse the damage that the economic crisis, and his reaction to it, has caused his campaign," Bloomberg's Hans Nichols writes.

"Obama has built leads nationally and in key states as the turmoil has returned the nation's focus to the unpopular Bush's policies. Now, the burden is on McCain to try to reverse his slide," per the AP's Liz Sidoti.

Forget Ayers -- what about Hillary? "She's the most important political figure not on the stage Wednesday in the final presidential debate, yet Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has been mentioned just once in the first three presidential and vice-presidential debates," Stephen Dinan writes in the Washington Times. "That could change with increasingly desperate Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain still looking for voters and with Mrs. Clinton in attendance as Mr. McCain and his Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, face off in Hempstead, N.Y."