The Note: The Plumback

Oct. 17, 2008— -- Let's hope Joe the Plumber doesn't charge by the minute -- the 15th can be the roughest.

Maybe John McCain's last great comeback isn't possible. Maybe it's only possible on the back of a plumber from Ohio (albeit one who could have used some vetting).

Maybe it's only possible with a plumber plus an ACORN plus an apology plus an "SNL" appearance plus a whole bunch of nasty things still to be said about Barack Obama.

But as the race moves to a (bluer) map, the fact is that a McCain comeback is still possible, all the signs to the contrary notwithstanding. Outgunned on the air and the ground, in difficult (shrinking) terrain, there may yet be room for one final storyline that casts McCain like he remembers so fondly.

If he wins, he'll be eking it out: "Top aides to Senator John McCain said Thursday that they were searching for a 'narrow-victory scenario' and would focus in the final weeks on a dwindling number of states, using mailings, telephone calls and television advertisements to try to tear away support from Senator Barack Obama," Adam Nagourney and Jim Rutenberg write in The New York Times.

"Mr. Obama's advisers said they would use the remaining 19 days of the campaign to focus mainly on capturing states that President Bush won in 2004; he is going to Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia, over the next three days and spending two days in Florida next week," they write. "In a sign of the differing fortunes of the candidates, advisers to Mr. Obama said he was escalating his effort in West Virginia, which Mr. Bush won by 13 points in 2004, with a surge in advertising spending and a campaign swing there in the coming days by Mr. Obama or his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr."

Karl Rove charts the strategy: "Mr. McCain is shaping a story line that draws on well-founded concerns about Mr. Obama's lack of record or experience," Rove writes in his Wall Street Journal column. "Mr. McCain is also bowing to reality and devoting most of his time to the economy. His narrative is he's the conservative reformer who'll lead and work hard to get things done, while Mr. Obama is the tax-and-spend liberal who's unprepared to lead and unwilling to act."

The itinerary: "[McCain's] campaign understands the dire circumstances it faces and is narrowing his travels almost exclusively to Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. If he carries those states, while losing only Iowa and New Mexico from the GOP's 2004 total, Mr. McCain will carry 274 Electoral College votes and the White House. It's threading the needle, but it's come to that."

Defense is what's left of his offense: "The latest polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Florida. McCain and Obama are effectively tied in Missouri and North Carolina," ABC's Ron Claiborne reports. "This has forced McCain to play defense in these states with less than three weeks to go instead of being in blue states that his campaign has targeted, such as New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota."

"Absent his ability to pick off any state won by the Democrats four years ago, he must prevent Obama from winning any of half a dozen Republican states that now appear vulnerable," Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray write in The Washington Post. "McCain's campaign and the RNC still point to Pennsylvania and, to a lesser extent, New Hampshire as potential pickups. But McCain has so many red states to defend that he may not have either the time or the money to convert Democratic turf."

But is it too late for state-by-state hopes, given Obama's financial edge? "He's too far in the hole," said Mike Murphy, a former McCain adviser. "He has to move the whole country his way to get back in the game, and at that point the North Carolina-type problems will fade and he will be back in battle in places like Colorado, Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada."

Newt agrees: "This race is a long way from over," former House speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., tells ABC's Diane Sawyer on "Good Morning America" Friday. "Sen. Obama I think gave Sen. McCain the winning issue the other day in his conversation on 'spreading the wealth.' . . . If you get a four or five-point swing nationally, all of a sudden a whole group of states fall his way."

Still time for a late break? "The race in its final days retains a feeling of dynamism," Peggy Noonan writes in her Wall Street Journal column. "I think it is going to burst open or tighten, not just mosey along. I can well imagine hearing, the day after Election Day, a lot of 'You won't believe it but I was literally in line at the polling station when I decided.' "

Can the big break be made? "To stop Obama's momentum, he needs to underscore that he is his own man and not that guy in the White House. But that effort might not make a difference," Carla Marinucci writes in the San Francisco Chronicle.

ABC's latest Electoral College map has all the Kerry states either solidly or leaning Democratic -- plus New Mexico and Iowa, which went for Bush in 2004. That means Obama has to pick up just one of the battlegrounds to capture the presidency -- and it doesn't have to be a big state, either.

If Virginia flips, it's going to be an early night: "By every organizational measure, Obama's campaign appears to have the advantage -- it has nearly three times as many offices, has contacted tens of thousands more potential supporters, and has helped register nearly half a million new voters this year, most of whom state officials believe favor the Democrat," The Washington Post's Michael D. Shear and Amy Gardner report.

"A key to a McCain comeback will be whether Republicans have built a strong enough get-out-the-vote operation in a state where none has ever been needed, something many party leaders question," they write.

Can it happen in Florida? "Barack Obama has sent five of his most senior operatives to Florida -- two of them to focus on the single county that includes Miami -- for the duration of the presidential campaign, in a newly sharpened strategy to win the election by driving Democratic voter turnout in the Republican-dominated state," the Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten writes. "The big bet on Florida and Miami-Dade County, Obama aides say, is based on the campaign's belief that it has secured enough supporters to win the state and must now ensure that those supporters get to the polls -- in contrast to states such as Ohio, where the campaign believes victory depends on persuading more voters to support Obama."