The Note: General Malaise

Oct. 20, 2008— -- All Sen. John McCain needs is one new storyline -- but Sen. Barack Obama went out and found three.

You could find one in the masses of humanity that greeted Obama in St. Louis and Kansas City over the weekend.

A second resided somewhere in the $150 million Obama collected in September. (Is there anywhere he can't play now?)

A third burst through in the only endorsement still out there that carries any weight. (Is this the true Palin effect?)

(What better day for a fourth? With early voting starting in Florida, Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton hold their first joint rally since June Monday evening in Orlando. Remember when these events were going to mean endless drama? Neither does Team McCain.)

(And it's the swing-state Series -- question one for candidates: Rays or Phillies? Florida or Pennsylvania? Per ABC's John Berman, Obama has already declared himself a Phillies fan for the month -- and they may know how to boo at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa.)

Colin Powell's endorsement stings McCain from a few different directions: with independent voters, with Republicans, with anyone thinking about Obama but harboring a final few doubts.

For several precious days, perhaps, it keeps McCain from changing the subject -- even Sarah Palin at 30 Rock ("laughing with her . . . or at her?" "Good Morning America" asks Monday) -- couldn't trump this one.

The map continuing to slip, his opponent continuing to pour it on, party unity crumbling, McCain needs to break through the queasiness in GOP camps with a bold campaign message -- a final argument for the final stretch.

Yet Powell's endorsement has the power to live for a few more news cycles in part because it was coupled with an indictment of McCain's campaign -- on Bill Ayers, on the economy, and running through a running-mate selection "that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment that Sen. McCain made."

In its sweep, Powell's lasting impact may be that he rendered McCain's last best weapons ineffective.

"His stamp of approval is likely to improve Obama's already favorable chances in once-reliable Republican states such as Virginia, and with the military community," The Washington Post's Karen DeYoung reports. "In explaining his decision, Powell was more critical of the Republican Party and McCain's campaign than of the candidate himself."

Would this have happened if McCain had chosen someone other than Sarah Palin? Powell tells the Post his decision to endorse was "emerging since the conventions, when I heard the convention speeches, saw who the vice presidential candidates were and then watched the debates."

The Palin choice "pushed this over the edge," ABC's George Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America" Monday. "This wasn't just an endorsement of Barack Obama. This was a rejection of Sen. McCain, President Bush, and the Republican Party. . . . It was very direct, and very cutting."

It's the "latest sign that the Republican Party's coalition is fracturing amid the stresses of the campaign," The Wall Street Journal's Jonathan Weisman and Amy Chozick write. "Late last week, conservative radio talk-show host Michael Smerconish endorsed Sen. Obama, as did conservative columnist Christopher Buckley, the son of National Review founder William F. Buckley. The Chicago Tribune endorsed Sen. Obama last week, the first time the paper has endorsed a Democrat in its 161-year history."

More roads back for McCain are looking like they're blocked off (and Powell wasn't speaking just for himself): "Likely voters overwhelmingly reject his effort to make an issue of Barack Obama's association with 1960s radical William Ayers," ABC Polling Director Gary Langer writes. "Fallout continues from McCain's pick of Sarah Palin for vice president, with 52 percent saying it weakens their confidence in his judgment. And on optimism, it's Obama by 2-1."

Among independents, in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll: "They see Obama as more optimistic by 57-31 percent and as better-suited temperamentally by 52-36 percent. The Palin pick makes them less rather than more confident in McCain's judgment by 51-39 percent, while the Biden selection makes them more rather than less confident in Obama by 50-33 percent."

Endorsements don't move votes, except: "Powell's endorsement may be unusual in that it both crosses the partisan aisle and comes from a particularly well-liked quasi-political figure -- one, as a bonus, who's steeped in the military experience Obama lacks," per ABC's John Berman, Jake Tapper, Tahman Bradley, and Arnab Datta.

The Powell endorsement "eliminated the experience argument," former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., said on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" Sunday.

"Powell is a brand unto himself in American politics, and clearly transcends the media's tendency to hype endorsements more than their actual importance to voters," Time's Mark Halperin writes. "However, the indisputable benefit that Powell brings Obama is that the former Secretary of State and general is sure to block out any chance McCain has of winning the next two or three days of news coverage, as the media swoons over the implications of the choice. It is simple political math: McCain has 15 days to close a substantial gap, and he will now lose at least one fifth of his total remaining time."

The cruelest cut: "He also made clear his belief -- despite McCain's 'I'm not President Bush' disclaimer at last week's debate -- that a McCain presidency would be an unwelcome policy rerun of the discredited Bush-Cheney years," Thomas M. DeFrank writes in the New York Daily News.

Powell "massively undercuts Obama's critics and undermines John McCain's selling points about being the maverick and military man the nation needs at this point in history," Lynn Sweet writes in the Chicago Sun-Times.

El Rushbo's take: "I am now researching his past endorsements to see if I can find all the inexperienced, very liberal, white candidates he has endorsed. I'll let you know what I come up with," Rush Limbaugh writes in an e-mail to Politico, per Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin.

"The events Sunday, taken together, dealt another dispiriting setback to Republicans, particularly since Mr. Powell is a longtime friend of Mr. McCain's and even donated to his campaign," Jeff Zeleny writes in The New York Times.

(Speaking of dispiriting . . . "I've had a wonderful life," McCain said on "Fox News Sunday, contemplating the possibility of defeat. "I have to go back and live in Arizona, and be in the United States Senate representing them, and with a wonderful family, and daughters and sons that I'm so proud of, and a -- and a life that's been blessed. I'm the luckiest guy you have ever interviewed and will ever interview. I'm the most fortunate man on earth, and I thank God for it every single day.")

From here: "Mr. Obama intends to devote most of his time over the next 15 days in states that President Bush won, aides said, going to Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. Mr. McCain, the Republican nominee, has ruled out trying to expand his electoral map but is waging an aggressive effort defending those states, the largest of which still could fall either way," Jeff Zeleny reports in the Times.