The Note: A Sprint, Not a Marathon

— -- WASHINGTON, April 25

NEWS SUMMARY
There will be political sound and fury galore this week, with tomorrow's Social Security multi-ring circus (a big hearing in the Senate and rallies all over DC and the country) probably generating the most heat+light (=probably nothing at all . . . ).

But there are a lot of other stories on high percolation as well, so this weekend, we moved 500 of the Googling monkeys off of their keyboards and onto their abacuses, to calculate the level of interest the major players have in the big stories.

First, here are the major storylines in play:

Washington's political foci, in alphabetical order:

1. Bolton nomination
2. Budget negotiations
3. DeLay fate
4. Economy, oil, and Saudi Arabia
5. Filibuster face-off
6. Iraq war completion
7. Social Security

Now:

The White House's political foci, in the order it cares about them (from most to least):

1. Iraq war completion
2. Economy, oil, and Saudi Arabia
3. Social Security
4. Budget negotiations
5. Bolton nomination
6. Filibuster face-off
7. DeLay's fate

The left-leaning and conflict obsessed MSM's political foci, in the order it cares about them (from most to least):

1. Filibuster face-off (Bill Frist is an extremist puppet of the Right!!!)
2. Economy, oil, and Saudi Arabia (release the SPR!!!)
3. DeLay fate (bring him down!!!)
4. Bolton nomination (withdraw it!!! or Hagel and other GOP defections will cause it to go down on votes!!!)
5. Social Security (let it suffer a fate worse than HillaryCare!!!)
6. Iraq war (is that thing still going on??!!!)
7. North Korea (David Sanger only.)
8. Areas of disagreement between Brad Freeman and Roland Betts regarding the White House gardener (Elisabeth Bumiller only.)
9. Budget negotiations

The Note's political foci, in the order we care about them (from most to least):

1. Budget negotiations
2. Substance of the allegations against Bolton and DeLay
3. Raymond Reggie's FBI wire
4. Filibuster face-off
5. Mitt Romney's 2006/08 decision

(The Note, like the President, believes in a tight focus.)

In Crawford, TX today, said President meets with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia at 11:55 am ET. Dick Stevenson and Jeff Gerth have a detail-laden, multi-subject preview in the New York Times, including the Dick Cheney pre-meeting. LINK

We are not expected to hear from the President today publicly.

There are a few Social Security events today, but the big stuff starts tomorrow, when the Senate Finance Committee begins formal hearings on some specifics, with Sen. Grassley now focused on a bill that can pass, even if it is partisan. America Coming Together, Americans United to Protect Social Security and other Democrat-linked organizations plan rallies in many cities and towns. Various organizers describe the rally planned for Capitol Hill as "huge."

President Bush has Social Security events on Tuesday in Galveston, TX. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay will attend, and DeLay gets to ride back with Bush on Air Force One President Bush has another Social Security event on Friday in Northern Virginia.

Today, at 2:15 pm ET, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Charles Schumer and Ron Wyden have a Social Security event in New York; they'll be joined by Wall Streeters opposed to private/personal accounts. (The Empire State Senators also do a public event with the Secretary of Homeland Security in Gotham City.)

The Leadership Conference on Civil Rights joins other left-leaning civil rights groups in unveiling their plan to "preserve" Social Security today at 9:00 am ET. Americans United releases its latest Social Security poll at an event in the Capitol with Sen. Max Baucus and Rep. Sander Levin.

The U.S. Senate spends the week debating the highway bill, which the House passed in early March. At $284 billion and with a recess/filibuster fight looming, chances are not too good for a vote this week. Action begins today at 2:00 pm ET. The House is in session at noon.

Senate Democrats this week plan to detail what they say will happen if Sen. Frist pulls the nuclear/constitutional trigger. Minority Leader Harry Reid has an appearance before the Breakfast Formerly Known as Sperling today to draw out the implications.

The Supreme Court meets for orders and arguments at 10:00 am ET.

The latest gas price numbers are released by the Energy Information Administration at 4:30 pm ET.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman is in Texas today raising money.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a news conference today at 2:00 pm ET.

The Federal Election Commission begins a conference on corporations and politics in DC.

On Wednesday, President Bush speaks at the Small Business Administration National Small Business Week Conference in Washington and in the evening attends an NRSC dinner at a private home.

The President meets with the President of Panama on Thursday in the Oval Office, reports ABC News' Karen Travers. The President and Mrs. Bush will attend the White House Correspondents' Association dinner on Saturday at the Hilton in Washington.

According to a new ABC News Poll, "American Catholics are responding with support if not great enthusiasm to the selection of Pope Benedict the 16th, and with a clear message on his first priority: addressing the issue of sexual abuse of children by priests. 81% of Catholics in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of the pope's election; however, just a quarter call themselves "very enthusiastic" about it," reports ABC's Joe Cohen. 71% of Catholics cite "addressing the issue of sexual abuse by priests" as a highest priority for the new pope; fewer, 41%, say "preserving the church's traditions" should be among Benedict's highest priorities. Last on the priorities list, at 22%, is "responding to the concerns of women in the church."

See the full report later today on ABC News.com, and watch for a new poll of national political dynamics, too.

Tomorrow, And First Lady Laura Bush appears on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno."

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks to students at Columbia University.

The House Government Reform Committee holds a hearing on the NFL's steroid policy, with commissioner Paul Tagliabue on the witness list. Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Israel.

On Thursday, the government will release its first estimate of first quarter 2005's gross domestic product. A Senate committee holds hearings on video press releases. The RNC holds a meeting for state chairs in Cleveland; the Nevada Republican Party holds a Lincoln Day dinner with Karl Rove in attendance in Las Vegas; The FEC holds an open meeting; and Rock The Vote hosts its annual awards in Los Angeles, CA.

Friday, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton visits Milwaukee, WI for the Wisconsin Women in Government 18th Annual Recognition Dinner. On Saturday, Clinton attends the Legal Aid Society's annual dinner in Cleveland.

Filibuster showdown:
The network morning shows loved this story today -- one even touted Sen./Dr./Leader Frist as someone who might be our next president.

Mitch McConnell said Sunday that Republicans have the votes if they want to pull the trigger. LINK

"One Republican senator, however, distanced himself from the telecast as well as the attacks on the judiciary. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who supports changing the confirmation process, said in an interview on 'Fox News Sunday' that the groups behind the telecast should 'not to go down the road of saying that the Democratic senators are not people of faith or questioning their religious -- that they're religious bigots.'"

The Washington Post's Chuck Babington Notes that Frist avoided discussing religion in the six-minute video he taped for "Justice Sunday," urging a "desperate need for more civility in political life." Criticism against Frist has focused on his participation, as opposed to his words. Read all the way to the end for the suggestion by Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) on "This Week" suggesting a possible compromise. LINK and LINK

The Boston Globe's Michael Kranish wraps Frist's appearance and the latest in the filibuster battle. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten writes that Judge Charles Pickering was one of the stars of the evening, and said abortion was the reason Democrats blocked his confirmation to the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. LINK

More from the Chicago Tribune's Frank James. LINK

Roll Call's Chris Cillizza reports that a group of House Republicans is getting in on the filibuster act -- er, showing their support for their party brethren in the Senate with an education effort to examine the filibuster and what the fight is really about.

The business lobby isn't backing the effort to change Senate rules and limit filibusters of judicial nominees, the Los Angeles Times' Tom Hamburger and Peter Wallsten wrote on Sunday, given that the halt of other legislative business would delay various business priorities could be delayed for months. The duo offer a very good run down the varying factions in the issue, and how those factions are causing a rift within the Republican Party. LINK

David Broder wrote Sunday that Democrats need to take the first step in ending the battle over filibusters -- and laid out a how-to list for them to follow. Dems aren't in a strong enough position to avoid taking the hit for a government shutdown -- or even slowdown, he argued. LINK

"Multiple sources, including DeLay's then-chief of staff Susan Hirschmann, have confirmed that DeLay's congressional office was in direct contact with Preston Gates about the trip itinerary before DeLay's departure, to work out details of his travel. These contacts raise questions about DeLay's statement that he had no way of knowing about the financial and logistical support provided by Abramoff and his firm."

(OK, we bite: where did the Post get the documents?)

The New York Times plays catch-up, adding comments from an anonymous adviser to Speaker Hastert who seeks a functioning ethics committee.

Newsweek's Howard Fineman and Mike Isikoff write that while DeLay is certainly staying in the fight, he's not exactly hunkering down anywhere; he's staying in the limelight and raising money. His approach to handling the situation also affects President Bush's agenda -- and whether or not Bush's Administration has the stomach to investigate adds another layer of politics as well. LINK

"In the old days -- before the remorseless camps of Red and Blue -- politician in DeLay's predicament would have done one of two things: called a press conference to declare his innocence and answer all questions -- or gone silent and called his lawyer. But now everything is a campaign, an ideological war in which the combatants, or at least some of them, believe that nothing less than the sanctity of life is at stake -- and every moment is perfect for a funder at a French restaurant."

Roll Call's Ben Pershing writes that senior members from both parties are trying to calm the fight over ethics rules and defuse the hostile relations among House leadership.

Karen Tumulty continues her must-read reporting in Time; this week, she details DeLay's friendship with Abramoff. LINK

The AP has a nice summary of the Abramoff investigations to date.

Douglas Jehl leads with Sen. Specter's comment from "Late Edition" that the Bolton nomination is too close to call. LINK

Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger laid out a defense of John Bolton in Sunday's Washington Post, writing that he'd never heard the kinds of complaints about Bolton's behavior that have come out during his hearings, and an approach to cleaning up the United Nations, no matter how blunt, is needed. LINK

Newsweek's Michael Hirsh tells another story about how associates -- in this case, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw -- objected to dealing with Bolton because of his temperament. LINK

Social Security:
USA Today's Susan Page looks at spate of key issues for President Bush and Congress and the latest USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll, which shows that nearly twice as many Americans oppose President Bush's plan to overhaul Social Security as support it, and the public's sense of urgency for the revamp is dissipating. And while Democrats remain united, divisions are showing among Republican members of Congress, and some strategists on both sides aren't giving the likelihood of a deal much of a chance. Former Sen. John Breaux (D-LA) puts it more bluntly: "'The White House should be looking for an exit strategy.'" LINK

"The percentage who said it was 'extremely important' for the president and Congress to deal with Social Security this year dipped to 37%. In February, before the push began, the number was 41%. Americans rated action on terrorism, health care costs, gas prices and the economy as more urgent."

"Support for investment accounts eroded to 33% from 40%; the proportion who called it 'a bad idea' grew to 61% from 55%. Nearly half of those surveyed said Bush was 'trying to dismantle the Social Security system,' not protect it."

Fred Barnes is nearly as grim as Susan Page, and his grimness probably matters more.

While paying lip service to the Notion that there is still a chance that things could change, Barnes (formerly a Beadle, now a Boy) has a must read advice piece in the Weekly Standard:

"History will surely vindicate Bush for trying to solve a serious national problem before it becomes a staggering mess. What's required now, however, is that he be ready to accept defeat in a manner that saves Republicans from losses in the 2006 election and allows him to pursue the rest of his agenda effectively."

"This approach has several advantages. It would spare Republicans a 2006 campaign dominated by Social Security. Most House Republicans would rather run on other issues -- taxes, gay marriage, national security, judges -- which are more likely to help them avoid the usual fate of a party with a president in his sixth year in office. The average numbers of seats lost by a president's party in the sixth year of his administration are, roughly, 28 in the House and 7 in the Senate.".

Janet Hook of the Los Angeles Times takes a look inside President Bush's small-group meetings with Republican members of Congress to answer their questions and try to persuade them to support his Social Security plan. LINK

"The lobbying drive has apparently done little to change minds and bump up the congressional vote count, but the White House says it never intended this stage of the campaign to be an arm-twisting enterprise."

"Still, the fact that Bush has had to mount such a full-court press even within his own party is a measure of just how difficult a political task he faces -- and how much the dynamic between the White House and Congress has changed in his second term."

On Sunday, the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman previewed Tuesday's Senate Finance Committee hearing to draft legislation to overhaul the Social Security system. The hearing itself is likely to be calm, Weisman wrote -- but wait till you get outside the door and encounter both sides' protests. LINK

And Iowa, of course, is the home to Sen. Grassley, a site of much Administration attention, and the location of the Drake Diner.

Congress:
The Washington Post's Chuck Babington assesses the surprising unity and resilience of congressional Democrats, who've thus far managed to not only stay in the game but be successful in throwing a monkey wrench into the agenda of their majority counterparts on Social Security, the House ethics committee, and the nomination of John Bolton. LINK

On Saturday, the Washington Post's Jim VandeHei reported that the Secret Service is investigating whether the Republican volunteer who kicked three people out of one of President Bush's Social Security events in Denver impersonated a federal agent while doing it. Boston Globe's Charlie Savage on Sunday. LINK

The Wall Street Journal ends an editorial on NCLB this way: "For too long money has flowed to the states with no questions asked, even while millions of mostly poor and minority students have been herded through our worst schools and dumped into the workforce with a diploma they can barely read. NCLB was a bipartisan agreement that such education failure was no longer acceptable, and the political compromise traded more federal money in return for higher standards and more accountability. But now the critics want to keep the cash and drop the standards. The choice has to be both, or neither."

Big casino budget politics:
The Los Angeles Times' Stephanie Simon on Sunday examined how states are looking to hold down Medicaid costs, either by cutting patients or cutting services -- and in the case of Missouri, to eliminate it in three years. LINK

2008: the Net:
Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times entertains the Notion that the giant-killing, leveling effect of the Internet, with its now-tested ability to raise money and recruit volunteers, could give rise to a third-party presidential bid in 2008. But the real issue isn't the new and improved tool for recognizing a base and pumping up enthusiasm, it's the directions that the major parties are going that are creating the conditions by which a kind of grassroots movement could take place. LINK

". . . [I]f the two parties continue on their current trajectories, the backdrop for the 2008 election could be massive federal budget deficits, gridlock on problems like controlling healthcare costs, furious fights over ethics and poisonous clashes over social issues and Supreme Court appointments. A lackluster economy that's squeezing the middle-class seems a reasonable possibility too."

"In such an environment, imagine the options available to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) if he doesn't win the 2008 Republican nomination, and former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, now that he's dropped his flirtation with running for mayor of New York. If the two Vietnam veterans joined for an all-maverick independent ticket, they might inspire a gold rush of online support -- and make the two national parties the latest example of the Internet's ability to threaten seemingly impregnable institutions."

2008: Republicans:
Sen. Frist's VolPAC has agreed to pay a $10,000 fine to settle a case with the FEC, which found problems with how the organization disclosed its actions and handled money, Roll Call's Amy Keller reports.

A conclave to discuss Gov. George Pataki's future was postponed, writes Fred Dicker in the New York Post. LINK

"Gov. Pataki is once again plastering his own mug across taxpayer-funded TV ads that promote New York tourism," the New York Daily News' Joe Mahoney reports.

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank wrote up the appearance at the Naval Academy on Thursday of Sen. John McCain, the "walking news conference," on Sunday. LINK

AP's Emily Wagster Pettus on Sunday took a look at the buzz about the possibility of Gov. Haley Barbour running for the White House in 2008. LINK

Gov. Mitt Romney has a 43 percent job approval rating in Massachusetts, according to a new poll. LINK

2008: Democrats:
On Saturday, The State's Lee Bandy sized up Sen. Joe Biden, who headlined Friday's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner in Columbia Friday night. LINK

If you didn't watch Biden work the crowd afterwards on C-SPAN, you missed an awesome show. And no one asked him about his college grades. And he was like butta.

Bob Novak cites close advisers to Sen. Hillary Clinton who want her to skip Iowa in 2008 to avoid being pulled left. LINK

(Note to Dick: what did Eileen contribute to this one?)

Raymond Reggie secretly taped at least one telephone conversation while working on the FBI investigation of a former aide to Sen. Hillary Clinton, the Boston Globe's Michael Kranish tried-to-match on Sunday. LINK

We wonder what the next shoe on this one is.

The Indianapolis Star on Sen. Evan Bayh's '08 musings. LINK

2006:
The Lakeland Ledger has details of Karl Rove's drop-by to Rep. Katherine Harris's office last week. LINK

New York magazine says William Weld has been approached to run for governor in 2006 . . . LINK

"The son of Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno arranged to have $4.4 million in Medicaid funding restored to the new state budget -- just days after he was paid $60,000 by a group that gets the funds," Fred Dicker writes in the New York Post. LINK

Politics:
Bill Clinton campaigned by satellite for Tony Blair; we Note that he recited the familiar refrain these days: Blair, Brown and Labor. LINK

The New York Times' Stephanie Strom fronts a page-one look at wealthy taxpayers' use of "supporting" organizations to get benefits of charities without subjecting themselves to a charity's more "onerous" requirements. LINK

Elisabeth Bumiller profiles the White House horticulturalist. LINK

Focus on the Family wasn't busy with only Justice Sunday this weekend -- according to Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO), who put out this statement yesterday:

"Today, supporters of Focus on the Family attempted to disrupt business at the Dairy Queen owned by my wife Hope."

"It is one thing to disagree with me on controversial issues of the day, and I accept and welcome differing views."

"But it is something else to target my wife's business, in an attempt to intimidate me. These tactics are outrageous and un-American, and simply won't work."

"We make progress in America when cooler heads work to find solutions to common problems. That is how I approach my job in the US Senate, as an independent voice tackling the issues that matter to Coloradans every day."

Friday's Denver Post talks about the escalating "war of words" between Salazar and Dobson. Salazar sent a letter to Dobson on Thursday telling him to stop going after Democrats' religious faith. Dobson wrote back that he's justified because some Democrats were attacking judicial nominees based on their faith. LINK

Wal-Mart:
In case you only catch the paper on the Web, Wal-Mart Watch has launched a new full-page ad in USA Today, questioning what happened to the Wal-Mart "Buy American" program, saying that "70% of Wal-Mart merchandise is from China," complete with a photo depicting a main aisle of a Wal-Mart store complete with "Made in China" arrows pointing to merchandise. Later this week, the ad will show up in local papers in communities affected by job outsourcing.

According to Barron's, the pressure from labor unions is having some impact on Wal-Mart stock. LINK