The Note: Do We Feel Comfortable About the Kitchen Test?

— -- WASHINGTON, April 26

NEWS SUMMARY
What matters today: photo ops; substance; "compromise" versus "the illusion of compromise"; public opinion (as measured by a head-turning ABC News/Washington Post survey); and the relative levels of ice-water-in-the-veins of Sen./Dr./Leader Frist and Sen./Leader/Searchlighter Reid.

Photo ops: Will the proverbial picture of the day be:

A. President Bush and Leader DeLay commuting to work together on AF1?

B. Sen. Grassley banging down the gavel for order during a contentious Finance Committee hearing on Social Security?

C. The Democrats' massive counter demonstration to reaffirm their opposition to personal accounts?

D. The Senate Leaders making mucho happy talk about filibuster compromise?

(The correct answer: E -- Soul Sisters Nan Aaron and Laura Ingraham freaking out about a possible -- but very unlikely -- filibuster deal.)

Substance: The most important substantive development of the day will be:

A. American yeoman-farmers poring over the transcripts of the Saudi-American events in Crawford yesterday, trying to decide what it all means for the price of tractor fuel?

B. Americans learning about how Galveston, TX should have been the setting of "Prairie Home Companion"?

C. Doug Jehl reading more letters from more angry diplomats who want John Bolton to be at the U.N. as much as, say, Sen. Lugar does?

D. Speaker Hastert divining some solution on the ethics impasse?

(The correct answer: E -- The testimony in the Social Security hearings, demonstrating in real terms for the first time that reform is at least as much about benefit cuts as it is about personal accounts.)

"Compromise" versus "the illusion of compromise": The key player most interested in compromising on a big issue is:

A. Sen. Grassley?

B. Sen. Frist?

C. Sen. Reid?

D. Karl Rove?

(The correct answer: E -- Sens. Lott and B. Nelson.)

Public opinion: The keyest key finding from the new ABC/WP poll is:

A. The President's strong numbers on fighting terrorism?

B. The President's overall approval rating?

C. The lack of support for eliminating the filibuster?

D. Rising concern about the economy?

(The correct answer: E -- The drop in support among Republicans for personal accounts.)

Relative levels of ice-water-in-the-veins of Sen./Dr./Leader Frist and Sen./Leader/Searchlighter Reid: The most likely issue on which the two Leaders will come together for a genuine deal is:

A. Filibusters?

B. Social Security?

C. The Bolton nomination?

D. The budget?

(The correct answer: E -- Brad Woodhouse has GOT to cut down on the number of e-mails.)

If none of the previous stuff makes sense to you, read on, starting with today's must-reads:

1.The new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds some ominous rumbling for President Bush and congressional Republicans. LINK

Most lopsided is Americans' opposition to changing the Senate rules to limit filibusters on judicial nominees, according to ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer: 66 percent said they don't favor changing the rules, while 26 percent say otherwise.

The results split pretty much along partisan lines, and both sides agree that the farther ends of the values spectrum, rather than moderates, have too much influence over their respective parties. Forty percent say religious conservatives hold too much sway over the Republican Party, while 35 percent said liberals have too much influence on the Democratic side.

Washington Post Polling Director Rich Morin and Dan Balz team up for their analysis, leading with the opposition to the filibuster rules changes. LINK

"Taken together, the findings suggest that Bush is off to a difficult start in his second term, with Democrats far less willing to accommodate him and his agenda than his reelection victory last November may have foreshadowed. Beyond that, the survey highlights the divisions within the Republican Party, whether that involves Bush's signature Social Security proposal or the intersection of religion and politics that has become a defining characteristic of today's GOP."

See more below.

2. Senior congressional sources confirm to ABC News' Linda Douglass that Sen. Harry Reid's tentative offer to compromise on judges would allow for the confirmation of the two Michigan judges, the withdrawal of the appointment of the third Michigan judge and would open the way for the Senate to "look at" at least one of the four controversial judges who are being opposed on ideological grounds.

Reid would also demand that Frist abandon plans to change Senate rules to ban filibusters against judges. A senior Republican aide says this offer appears to be an effort to "pick off a couple of Republican moderates" who are queasy about changing Senate rules.

We don't think Democrats would disagree. And it's kind of smart for Democrats to offer a compromise that Republicans will have to reject, rather than the other way around, right?

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove says no deal, reports USA Today's Judy Keen, who suggests that Rove suggested that all the judges deserve a vote. LINK

In his hour-long interview at Gannett, Rove also defended John Bolton, reiterated the Administration's openness to Social Security ideas, and said he expects Leader DeLay to stick around.

3. The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne makes the argument that while the hand-wringing over partisanship has reached a fever pitch, it's the moderates who hold the cards, and their rebellion is going to force the realignment, at least of talking points, for both parties. LINK

Along similar lines, the Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein takes a closer look at the slightly difficult relationship between President Bush and moderates in his own party who increasingly either side with or provide similar obstruction as Democrats -- which one (anonymous) senior White House official said is the result of the tougher issues the President is trying to tackle in his second term. LINK

"The signs of insurrection have reached a point where some conservatives believe the White House must confront the dissenting voices more forcefully -- especially as some Republicans' doubts about Bolton threaten the administration with its first defeat on a top-tier executive branch appointment."

Note well: "Continued resistance from GOP moderates to large reductions in federal entitlement programs could keep House and Senate negotiators from reaching agreement on a new federal budget, according to Republican sources following the talks."

4. Alexander Bolton of The Hill has the goods on a 1983 bill sponsored by Sen. Reid that seems to try to exempt many government employees out of the Social Security system. The Republican National Committee is set to blast news about the bill today. LINK

"Reid's bill would have kept all federal employees hired on or after Jan. 1, 1984, such as the president, elected officials, political appointees and judges, from participating in Social Security, according to a Republican summary of the bill, H.R. 3589, introduced in July 1983."

5. Washington Post's Mike Allen reports that members of Congress are learning from Leader DeLay's troubles, rushing to file amendments to their travel and campaign records so they don't find themselves on the same end of an investigation, or at least questions or raised eyebrows. Looking to move the spotlight a little, House Speaker Dennis Hastert told Sean Hannity last week that there are "four or five cases out there dealing with [unnamed] top-level Democrats." And shockingly, it seems as though some members have (momentarily) cooled their travel on the dime of special interests and others. LINK

6. "House Republicans say they haven't opened and don't plan any new investigations of federal judges after Terri Schiavo's death despite Majority Leader Tom DeLay's promise to examine the judiciary's conduct," AP reports. LINK

7. A Washington Post correction (with a great photo!!!): "In a photo caption with an April 23 article on BlackBerry e-mail devices, the identifications of two White House staff members were transposed. The photo appears at right with a correct caption. Also, the caption incorrectly said that the photo was taken last week; it was taken last October." Well, thank goodness that's cleared up. LINK

Today, President Bush participates in a Social Security roundtable at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, TX. Leader DeLay will be with him and will accompany Bush back to Washington aboard Air Force One.

First Lady Laura Bush participates in a Helping America's Youth event in Phoenix at 12:15 pm ET and tapes the "Tonight Show" with Jay Leno at 7:45 pm ET.

Today in the U.S. Senate, the Finance Committee conducts its first hearing on overhauling Social Security at 10:00 am ET.

Robin Toner and David Rosenbaum offer this preview in the New York Times: "[The ]committee plans to showcase the political arguments of both sides. Four experts on Social Security from outside Congress have been invited to present their plans for achieving 'sustainable solvency,' which means that the system would remain in balance after 75 years. Mr. Grassley called the hearing, a member of his staff said, to illustrate that any changes to strengthen Social Security financially, with or without private accounts, would have to include lower benefits, higher taxes or both." LINK

"Three of the four plans include individual or private accounts. Robert Pozen, an investment company executive from Boston and a supporter of private accounts, is scheduled to testify about his proposal, viewed with interest by the Bush administration, to improve the program's solvency by focusing benefit reductions on wealthier retirees."

Witnesses include Pozen, Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute, personal/private accounts guru Peter Ferrara of the Free Enterprise Fund, budgeteer Peter Orszag of Brookings, and Joan Entmacher of the National Women's Law Center.

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, the minority whips of both chambers and many others join Americans United to Protect Social Security for a massive rally and theme day outside the Capitol. The rally starts at 1:15 pm ET and the members begin to speak at 2:30 pm ET.

On the floor, debate resumes on the highway bill. Sen.Frist is expected before the cameras stalking the party policy luncheons around noon.

Former Vice President Al Gore speaks to MoveOn PAC members at the Hyatt Regency in Washington at 12:30 pm ET on filibusters.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee plans to present John Bolton with more written questions about his behavior and practices as a State Department official. (Move America Forward, which ran radio in Ohio totaling, it says, tens of thousands of dollars, has abruptly reversed course and pulled the ads, citing an unspecified briefing from a close associate of George Voinovich.)

The Supreme Court meets at 10:00 am for orders and decisions.

At 10:00 am ET, the UFCW and AFL-CIO and some Democratic members of Congress will kick off their "Love Mom, not Wal-Mart" campaign, which will try to connect folks' good feelings about their mothers will their social justice pings about Wal-Mart's allegedly poor labor practices. A "Mother of All Mother's Day Card" will be unveiled -- a message to Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott.

The U.S. Election Assistance Commission holds a public hearing in Boston, Mass., to discuss recommendations for voluntary voting system guidelines and hear testimony from election officials about implementing statewide voter registration lists.

ABC News/Washington Post poll:
More from ABC News' Gary Langer:

"On [House Majority Leader Tom] DeLay, views on one level are divided: He gets an even split in job approval, 35 percent-38 percent, with many having no opinion. But given the ethics complaints against him, the public by 41 percent-32 percent says he should step down as majority leader. And among those who are closely following the ethics issue (just over a third of the public), many more -- 63 percent -- say he should quit his leadership post."

Finally, President Bush's approval rating, at 47 percent, is largely around the 50-50 range where he's been for about a year; Langer Notes that "intensity of sentiment is against him, with Americans 13 points more apt to disapprove strongly than to approve strongly of his work in office -- the biggest such gap of his career."

Sixty-four percent of Americans said they disapprove of his handling of Social Security, while 31 percent said they approve -- and while they're split relatively evenly on changes (51 percent oppose, 45 percent support), if the proposed changes bring lower growth in guaranteed benefits, a whopping 70 percent said "no thank you.

Social Security:
"President George W. Bush's strategy for wrapping up his 60-day, 60-stop tour to whip up support for revamping Social Security is simple: ignore the calendar and keep on stumping," Bloomberg's Heidi Przybyla reports.

"As the scheduled May 1 conclusion of his speaking tour approaches, Bush is planning to extend his campaign-style travels across the country in an effort to reverse the dwindling public support for his plan."

Przybyla gets Sen. Graham to say that Bush made a strategic error in focusing on an ownership society.

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank previews the Social Security hearings beginning today, Noting comments from Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee that they won't insist on private accounts and they won't ask President Bush for more details on his plan. But they will keep throwing ideas against the wall to see what sticks in order to nudge some Democratic support. The bill is expected to move through the committee in June or July. LINK

Bloomberg's Jeff Bliss writes that "[a] proposal backed by the Bush administration to shore up Social Security's finances may need to be changed to avoid deep benefit cuts, the architect of the proposal said. Robert Pozen said his plan to reduce the benefits of upper- and middle-income Americans could be altered to avoid the unnecessarily deep cuts that a non-partisan study warned could result. Pozen's proposal, called progressive price indexing, has been embraced by President George W. Bush."

John Tierney has forever drawn the ire of the LaRouchies with today's column praising Chile's privatization program. LINK

Filibuster showdown:
Roll Call's Mark Preston and Paul Kane look at the compromise on the seven most controversial nominees that Sens. Trent Lott and Ben Nelson are trying to rally support for: votes for four nominees if Republicans back off their push for changing the filibuster rules, and Republicans taking three other nominees off the table. The duo also throw in (unsurprising) conference call comments by Sen. Chuck Schumer that Republicans' 2006 re-elect numbers are sinking.

The Washington Post's Chuck Babington reports that Sens. Reid and Durbin hinted yesterday that they'd be open to a compromise over filibusters, with seven of the 10 controversial judges being confirmed and three withdrawn. But it's unclear whether Republicans would go along with the idea. LINK

"Democratic aides predicted yesterday that Frist could find it very difficult to sell the proposed compromise to conservative groups eager to ban judicial filibusters before there is a Supreme Court vacancy, which many expect this summer. But moderate GOP senators -- many of whom have criticized the idea of changing the filibuster rule -- might press Frist to accept a deal in order to defuse the situation and avoid a bitterly partisan confrontation."

"Frist's office did not respond to a request for a comment on Reid's remarks last night. A senior Republican leadership aide, who would speak only on background because of the issue's political sensitivity, said 'it's typical Washington horse-trading' but nonetheless "encouraging' that Democrats broached the idea of dropping their filibusters."

The Los Angeles Times' Maura Reynolds writes that Reid and Durbin said they never intended to shut down Senate business over the filibuster. LINK

More on the new Democratic strategy from the New York Times' Carl Hulse: " . . . Democrats, fearing a backlash, suddenly abandoned talk of using the chamber's arcane rules to bring the Senate to a standstill in the fight over judges. Instead, they said they intended to call up their measures on health care, education and veterans' benefits with the hope of making Republicans take what could be politically awkward votes." LINK

"Nan Aron, president of the Alliance for Justice, which works with liberal groups to fight conservative appointees, expressed alarm that Democrats were even talking about confirming some of the judges, predicting a backlash if they followed through. 'Judges who serve lifetime appointments have too much of an effect on our everyday life to simply be horse-traded for political compromise," she said. 'This was not a political game.'"

"The Democratic positioning illustrated how anxious members of both parties are over the political and policy consequences of the potential confrontation on rules governing the filibuster. Republicans are also approaching the issue more gingerly, delaying any floor fight until at least about mid-May."

The Los Angeles Times editorial page comes out against the filibuster for judicial nominees. LINK

John Podhoretz says Democrats have become the party that stands athwart history yelling "STOP" LINK

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is trying to calm K Street on their concerns over the filibuster rules change, but he's not backing down, writes The Hill's Geoff Earle. LINK

And this one will have everyone talking: California Supreme Court Justice Janice Rogers Brown "told an audience Sunday that people of faith were embroiled in a 'war' against secular humanists who threatened to divorce America from its religious roots, according to a newspaper account of the speech," reports the Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten. LINK

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman will release a memo today on public opinion and filibusters. Three points the RNC finds prevalent in public opinion: "Every judge deserves an up-or-down vote, particularly judges with majority support. These are highly qualified judges who have support of a majority of the U.S. Senate and will apply the law fairly and impartially. It is the Senate Democrats who have changed the rules. The Constitutional Option restores 214 years of Senate rules in which every judicial nominee with majority support receives an up-or-down vote."

Leader DeLay:
The Washington Times is psyched that DeLay will travel with Bush on AF1. LINK

Roll Call's Chris Cillizza reports that former Rep. Nick Lampson (D-TX) filed papers with the FEC on Monday to challenge Leader DeLay in 2006, and assesses Lampson's shot at money and support.

Juliane Carter Sullivan, a DeLay senior aide, has left the Hill to join Akin Gump, The Hill reports. LINK

Bolton:
"John R. Bolton clashed repeatedly with American intelligence officials in 2002 and 2003 as he sought to deliver warnings about Syrian efforts to acquire unconventional weapons that the Central Intelligence Agency and other experts rejected as exaggerated, according to former intelligence officials," the New York Times Douglas Jehl reports. LINK

"In public, the controversy over John R. Bolton's nomination as United Nations ambassador has focused on his handling of personnel issues and his managerial skills. But the first big battle of President Bush's second term also reflects long-standing tensions among Republicans over the thrust of U.S. foreign policy," write the Washington Post's Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright. Note Bill Kristol's comments about Powell and Armitage allies and payback. LINK

Frederick Vreeland, a former U.S. ambassador to Burma and Morocco, has joined the Bolton opposition chorus, reports the Los Angeles Times' Sonni Efron. LINK

Congress:
A good non-partisan money-in-politics group has crunched five years worth of Congressional travel paid for by private corporations and by non-profits.

PoliticalMoneyLine.com studied trip records from 2000 through early 2005 and calculated that groups paid for $16 million in travel. Democrats, the group found, took more trips that Republicans.

Read the full study at www.politicalmoneyline.com

Other highlights:
--Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, rolled up the largest tab. He took 19 trips valued at nearly $168,000.
-- Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), took the most trips: 63.
-- Tom DeLay took 14 trips valued at $94,568. He ranked 28th for value of trips, and 114th in the number taken.
-- Democrats took 3,025 trips; Republicans, 2,375; independents, 10.

USA Today's Jim Drinkard writes it up. LINK

On the Hill, Republicans and Democrats worry about the possible passage of the "Real ID Act," which would require additional forms of national identification to receive a drivers license. LINK

James Sensenbrenner (R- WI), who is a leading sponsor of the act says it would help prevent terrorists from gaining official documents, but opponents from both sides argue that if passed, the Real ID Act would be lengthy in implementation, lead to delays at motor vehicle bureaus, and be very costly. In addition House Republicans attached the bill to a supplemental spending package for troops in Iraq without putting it through the usual legislative scrutiny of hearings and debate.

Bush agenda:
The Washington Post's Michael Fletcher reports that President Bush and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah did not come to an agreement to lower gas prices in the near term, though Saudi Arabia repeated its promise to invest $50 billion over five years to increase oil production capacity 50 percent. LINK

"Officials from both sides emerged from the meeting to say there was agreement on the value of Saudi Arabia's signaling to global markets that it would push down prices over the long run as demand for energy increased. American officials said they hoped the Saudi policy might put immediate downward pressure on oil prices, even though the expansion plan has been public for weeks," writes Dick Stevenson in the New York Times. LINK

"Saudi Arabia's plan, which it began discussing publicly weeks ago, calls for spending up to $50 billion to increase its maximum sustainable production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009, and to 15 million in the subsequent decade, from about 10.8 million barrels now. The Saudis are currently pumping about 9.5 million barrels a day."

"A Saudi official said that Mr. Bush had not requested a short-term production increase and that such an increase would not have any effect on gasoline prices in the United States in any case. The high price of gasoline in the United States, the Saudi official said, was mostly a result of a lack of refining capacity here." Deb Orin can't get over the hand-holding. LINK

Reports the New York Times' Sam Dillon: "The authorities in Texas yesterday shrugged off a fine that the federal Department of Education has imposed on the state because it was late last year in notifying schools and districts whether they had reached student achievement benchmarks under President Bush's No Child Left Behind law." LINK

Nick Kristoff writes that "The single greatest failure of the Bush administration's foreign policy concerns North Korea. Mr. Bush's policies toward North Korea have backfired and led the North to churn out nuclear weapons, and they have also antagonized our allies and diminished America's stature in Asia." LINK

2008: Republicans:
In Massachusetts, Scott Greenberger of the Boston Globe updates us on the legislation on stem cell research. House and Senate leaders think they have reached an agreement on a bill promoting embryonic stem cell research and the parties have compromised on the designation power within the bill. Governor Mitt Romney, has suggested he will veto the bill, but both the House and Senate approved the bill with veto-proof margins. Legislation will continue to move forward in the next couple weeks. LINK

2008: Democrats:
Michael Chertoff outbilled Sens. Clinton and Schumer in tab coverage of yesterday's homeland security event. LINK

Sen. Kerry travels to California to help out with the Los Angeles mayoral race. LINK

Salon's Peter Dizikes wonders if the re-tooled John Edwards can stick around until 2008. LINK

2006:
The New York Post's Fred Dicker gets William Weld to concede that a race against Eliot Spitzer would be tough, tough. LINK

But the New York Times' Healy spins it exactly the opposite way. LINK

And the New York Daily News gets Mayor Bloomberg to say he wants George Pataki to run again. LINK

Politics:
Texas legislators are one step closer to pushing a ban on both gay marriage and civil unions. LINK

"The Rev. Al Sharpton says he did nothing wrong when he took questionable campaign checks two years ago -- and the lack of an investigation by then-Attorney General John Ashcroft, who is no fan of his, is proof of his innocence," the New York Post's Ed Robinson reports. LINK

Josh "Scoop" Gerstein writes on the political implications of the beginning of the Sami Al-Arian trial in Florida.

"In a letter filed in federal court in Tampa last week, a lawyer for Mr. Al-Arian, William Moffitt, said he believes surveillance tapes may exist of his client speaking with Republicans such as House Speaker Dennis Hastert, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Henry Hyde of Illinois, and Senator Lott of Mississippi. Mr. Al-Arian may also have had recorded contacts with Democrats, including Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts, Rep. James Moran of Virginia, Rep. Cynthia McKinney of Georgia, and the former House minority whip, David Bonior, according to the letter, which asked prosecutors to turn over all such recordings to the defense." LINK

Manuel Roig-Franzia of the Washington Post takes a closer look at the new measure passed in Florida's legislature and expected to be signed by Gov. Jeb Bush giving greater leeway on self defense and stating that "any person 'has the right to stand his or her ground and meet force with force, including deadly force if he or she reasonably believes it is necessary to do so to prevent death or great bodily harm.'" And its NRA backers plan to bring it to statehouses nationwide -- including Virginia -- over the next year. LINK

More evidence that King County, WA, didn't have their act together in counting ballots in last year's gubernatorial race. LINK