What Will the Democratic Congress Look Like?

Nov. 11, 2006 — -- As the lame-duck Congress returns to the Capitol so members can finish up work left undone when they hit the campaign trail, they'll also be looking toward the new Democratic House and Senate that will convene early next year.

The newly elected members will join the current lawmakers -- those not defeated or retiring -- to elect their leaders. Among House Democrats and both parties in the Senate, the top spots are set, although lower spots are up for grabs. And House Republicans face a wholesale leadership shake-up.

The results will yield early and important clues about the directions the parties intend to take in the next two years.

Congressional leadership races can combine the popularity contests of high-school student government elections and the palace intrigue of the Medicis. They're fought on two sometimes conflicting levels, often pitting personal friendships and political aspirations against ideological alliances and party goals. The campaigning is all back-room, as politicians ask other politicians for votes.

The biggest changes will come on Friday, when House Republicans -- stung by more than a year of scandal and the dramatic loss of their majority status -- meet to choose their leaders. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and Rep. Deborah Pryce, R-Ohio, the fourth-highest Republican leader, both have said they will not run again for their leadership posts.

Younger conservatives are pressing for a greater voice. Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., a former conservative radio talk show host, is challenging House Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, for the top spot. Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., one of the firebrands from the Gingrich revolution of 1994 who has not lost his zeal, is running against Republican Whip Roy Blunt, R-Mo.

Boehner was a protégé of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., who engineered the Republican takeover of the House in 1994, but was pushed out of the leadership in 1998. Earlier this year he was elected -- over Blunt -- to replace then-Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, who was embroiled in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, as majority leader.

In that race, Boehner ran as the reform candidate, despite his strong ties to Washington lobbying community. Later, he blocked a drive to enact tough, new ethics rules -- something analysts say was a factor in the Republican defeat at the polls. In a post-election letter to colleagues, Boehner acknowledged that the party had drifted from its core principles and played "not to lose instead of playing to win."

In the whip's race, Boehner's support could be crucial. Shadegg's backing of Boehner was crucial in his come-from-behind victory over Blunt, whom Boehner sees as a potential future rival.

House Democrats, who meet Thursday, will choose between Reps. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., and John P. Murtha, D-Pa., to be the majority leader, the no. 2 post, another race that will turn on ideology, and past and (perhaps) future rivalries.

Murtha, a moderate who has long been a behind-the-scenes power, is making his first bid for an elected leadership post. He's arguing that he would provide an important ideological balance to the liberal Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who is poised to be House speaker. Murtha ran Pelosi's 2001 campaign when she beat fellow liberal Hoyer to become the Democratic leader.

A decorated Marine Vietnam veteran, Murtha gave credibility to Democratic criticism of President Bush's management of the war in Iraq as he emerged as a leading party spokesman on the issue. That has made him something of a hero to many newly elected House Democrats who made that opposition the cornerstones of their campaigns.

Pelosi said she will not take sides in the race, but close allies such as Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., are working with Murtha to reach out to fellow liberals, skeptical of Murtha because of his support for the National Rifle Association and opposition to abortion rights.

In the other House Democratic leadership races, the way has been cleared for Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., a leading member of the Congressional Black Caucus, to be whip and Rep. Rahm Emmanuel, D-Ill., who ran the House Democrats' campaign committee, is to be rewarded with the chairmanship of the House Democratic Caucus.