American Catholic voters present complex opportunities for Trump, Harris: Academics

Catholic voters have always been a key voting bloc in every presidential election, with candidates vying hard for their support.

And this year, the battle for their votes has gotten aggressive as former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that Vice President Kamala Harris has been anti-Catholic.

While Harris has not said the same about Trump, she has sent a message to Catholic voters that her policies are in line with their social and political views and priorities. But in reality, academics who have been studying religion's role in politics tell ABC News that it's not easy to pin a single label on the nation's Catholics.

"It's really interesting that the Catholic Church is probably one of the few places where you find people with different perspectives sitting together at Sunday Mass," Margaret Susan Thompson, a professor of history at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs, told ABC News.

Thompson and others said that if past election results are any indication, Catholic turnout and the choices they make at the polls will depend on a variety of factors.

Changing demographics show schism in voting patterns

Thompson, who has been researching Catholic vote trends, said that, as a whole, Catholics have been voting more Republican in the last 44 years after abortion became a major campaign issue for the Christians as a whole.

But over those decades, she noted that the makeup of American Catholics has also changed as the number of non-white Catholics has grown.

Since 2007, the share of American Catholics who are white has dropped by 8 percentage points, while the share who are Hispanic has increased by 4 points, according to data from the Pew Research Center.

"It has changed the map a lot," Thompson said. "Latino Catholics have risen in numbers in the South and in swing states like Arizona and have brought their own perspectives on their faith and their beliefs."

Ryan Burge, associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, who has compiled data on the voting patterns of the county's religious groups, agreed.

"The Catholic vote is full of contradictions," Burge said. "There is a lot of cross-pressures that they face. They may be white, but also a union member. They may be against LGTBQ rights but want better immigration rights."

Burge told ABC News that the increased diversity among Catholics has also reflected a shift in the presidential races.

In 2020, 56% of Catholic voters voted Republican, according to data he compiled from Harvard University's Cooperative Election Study. However, when the community was broken down into race, 59% of white Catholics voted Republican last election while it was only 31% of non-white Catholics voted for the GOP.

"We see the same racial trends for most religious groups," he explained.

Not in communion with the Catholic Church's teaching

Thompson said the diversity also extends to Catholics' political leanings.

For example, Pew found that 61% of all Catholics find abortion should be legal in all or most cases. An ABC News/Ipsos poll found 55% of Catholics would rather the federal government restore abortion access as it was before the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade.

"Just because the hierarchy says 'this is right, this is wrong' doesn't mean that every Catholic is going to follow their lead," she said.

Burge also noted that cultural ties outside of one's religion have factored in individual leanings of certain Catholic groups.

For example, he noted that data has shown that Latino Catholics are less in favor of promoting LGBTQ rights and socialism ideals than their white and Black counterparts.

"I think they are pulled in two directions," he said of Latino Catholics. "Traditionally they've been Democratic and we've seen them in a majority still vote Democratic but they've always been culturally conservative. I think that's where you're seeing the shift in some Latino circles voting Republican because of the party's messaging on those issues."

A recent ABCNews/Ipsos poll found that Catholic likely voters are closely divided in vote preference, 51-48% Trump-Harris.

"I think they seem to be a more moderate voting bloc. I don't think they can be taken for granted," Burge said.

Trump slams Harris over Catholic vote on the campaign trail

Since the start of the election season, the Trump, Biden and Harris campaigns have been trying to court various religious groups.

Trump, in particular, has been sounding off in rallies, social media and interviews against Harris, calling her anti-Catholic. He's claimed in a Truth Social post that she lost the Catholic vote due to her stance on reproductive rights and that she was "persecuting" the group.

"Any Catholic that votes for Comrade Kamala Harris should have their head examined," he said in a Truth Social post in September.

Harris has rarely made direct comments about the Catholic vote during the campaign and did not attend the annual Al Smith Dinner hosted by the Archdiocese of New York, saying it was due to schedule conflicts.

Even though she was the first presidential candidate not to attend the dinner in 40 years, she provided a video speech that included a skit with "Saturday Night Live" alum Molly Shannon.

"The Gospel of Luke tells us that faith has the power to shine a light on those living in darkness and to guide our feet in the path of peace. In the spirit of tonight’s dinner, let us recommit to reaching across divides, to seek understanding and common ground," she said.

Trump, in breaking with the dinner's soft-hearted roasting, continued his attacks on Harris at the dinner.

"You can't do what I just saw on that screen, but my opponent feels like she does not have to be here, which is deeply disrespectful to the event and in particular to our great Catholic community. Very disrespectful," he said.

Rhetoric does little to sway Catholic voters

Despite the media attention, the experts said that Trump's rhetoric and back-and-forth with Harris over the Catholic vote isn't going to move the needle.

Thompson said that there are very few undecided voters left and most voters' preferences are locked in at this point.

She also noted Trump's attacks and messaging are no different from the language he's used for other religious groups, such as Jewish voters, Latino voters and Black voters.

"It's his go-to phrase: 'They should have their head checked,'" she said.

Thompson also noted that the sentiment applies to the Vatican.

Pope Francis weighed in on the election in September and appeared to take a middle ground, claiming "One must choose the lesser of two evils."

"Who is the lesser of two evils? That lady or that gentleman? I don’t know," he told reporters during a news conference.

Francis did not directly name Trump or Harris or either political party, but even while noting the church's opposition to abortion, he also emphasized a more moderate stance on social issues.

"To send migrants away, to leave them wherever you want, to leave them … it’s something terrible, there is evil there. To send away a child from the womb of the mother is an assassination, because there is life. We must speak about these things clearly,” he said.

Thompson said that the pope has contributed to a major schism among Catholics, with more conservative members dismissing his progressive stances on LGBTQ rights and the environment and more liberal members calling him out for not shifting the church's stance on reproductive rights.

"There is selective listening to the pope by everyone," she said. "I don't think that his non-endorsement is really going to change people's minds, either."

Burge said that, at the end of the day, the moments that are going to affect the Catholic vote are in the rhetoric and actions of the candidates in the final days.

"Politicians have always had a problem speaking about religion without sounding pandering," he said. "The public just cares about where they stand and how they are going to tackle the issues they feel are important."