Diplomats, experts say Iran close to having nuclear arms
— -- There's time for stricter sanctions to get Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program, but the Islamic republic is much closer to such weapons than previously believed and a military strike may be necessary, foreign policy experts say.
"With each time we have used sanctions, they've had more impact, but ultimately if Iran wants to pay the cost, it can get nuclear weapons," says Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The question is, can we raise the cost enough?"
Western diplomats and nuclear experts who reviewed intelligence on the Iranian nuclear program say Iran has continued work on nuclear weapons with the help of foreign scientists, despite sanctions organized by the Obama administration, a report in The Washington Post said.
The U.S. State Department has said repeatedly that the Obama administration's policy is to stiffen enforcement of existing sanctions imposed on Iran to have it comply with United Nations nuclear non-proliferation agreements.
Israel officially has said it supports sanctions but it has acted militarily in the past to stop an enemy's nuclear program, such as in Iraq. Israel has also recently tested long-range missiles that can penetrate hardened underground targets.
The sanctions in place focus mostly on individuals in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and blocking Iranian access to nuclear materials and technology.
A report due out this week by the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency is likely to show that Iran is closer than ever to a workable nuclear weapon, Cordesman said. The report will say that Iran received technological assistance from a Russian scientist and a higher level of assistance from North Korea, Cordesman said.
For the U.S. and Israel, "a military strike is going to be the last resort," says Michael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute for Middle East Policy and ex-director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council.
Tougher sanctions on the central bank of Iran or its oil exports could come first, "but whether those would be enough to convince the Iranian regime to abandon its weapons program is uncertain," Singh said.
"As Iran gets closer to having a nuclear device, your options are use military means … or deploy an improved defense," Cordesman says.
Singh agrees. Israel, Gulf states and others "will be looking for the United States to be making a credible threat of military force against Iran," he said. "They see that as making the Iranians to seriously think about what they're doing."
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