Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives this November?
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FiveThirtyEight’s newly launched House forecast gives them a 3-in-4 chance of winning the majority. Republicans have a 1-in-4 chance of keeping control.
That’s according to a statistical model that looks at polls of each race, how much money each candidate has raised, how each district has voted historically and more. (You can read more about how the model works here.)
But there are a ton of seats in play -- FiveThirtyEight rates 112 as at least somewhat competitive -- and with more than two months before Election Day, the forecast shows a wide range of potential outcomes.
Democrats could quite plausibly gain anywhere from 14 seats to 58 seats, according to FiveThirtyEight. In other words, at this point, it would not be surprising if Democrats fell a few seats short of the majority, or if a “blue wave” swept dozens of Republicans out of office.
The FiveThirtyEight House model produces probabilistic forecasts, as opposed to hard-and-fast predictions about who will win or lose. In the same sense a weather forecaster might tell you there’s a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow, the FiveThirtyEight model estimates the chances of each candidate winning in all 435 House races. It will update continuously up until Election Day.
FiveThirtyEight, a data-driven news site founded by Nate Silver in 2008, joined ABC News this year.